SACRUS

67 / 52 clouds splitting the region / S 1/2 on NJ (Idalia). Should clear out later today. August ending on a dry and gorgeous note. Warm near 80 and lows in the 60s / 50s inland. Sep opens near normal and dry with a NE onshore-ish low. Ridge builds east as deep trough moves into the PNW - WC. Overall warm to hot as flow comes around NE-N - NW and Wrly. SOme heat especially inland. Outside of the ghost of Idalia being pushed back west from the building Wstern Atl Rdge - looks dry and overall warm. Into the beyond overall ridging but need to watch cut off or ULL othr wise riding a warm Sep.

8/30 Records: Highs: EWR: 100 (1953) NYC: 98 (1973) LGA: 99 (1953) Lows: EWR: 49 (1934) NYC: 50 (1965) LGA: 55 (1986) Historical: 1776 - General Washington took advantage of a heavy fog to evacuate Long Island after a defeat. Adverse winds kept the British fleet from intervening. (David Ludlum) 1838: A major tornado, possibly the worst in Rhode Island history, passed south of Providence. It uprooted and stripped trees of their branches, unroofed or destroyed many houses, and sucked water out of ponds. The tornado barely missed a local railroad depot, where many people were waiting for a train. The tornado injured five people. 1839 - A hurricane moved from Cape Hatteras NC to offshore New England. An unusual feature of the hurricane was the snow it helped produce, which whitened the Catskill Mountains of New York State. Considerable snow was also reported at Salem NY. (The Weather Channel) 1982 - A tropical depression brought torrential rains to portions of southern Texas. Up to twelve inches fell south of Houston, and as much as eighteen inches fell southeast of Austin. The tropical depression spawned fourteen tornadoes in three days. (David Ludlum) Record cold gripped the northeastern U.S. Thirty-one cities in New England reported record lows, and areas of Vermont received up to three inches of snow. (The Weather Channel) 1987 - Eight cities in California and Oregon reported record high temperatures for the date, including Redding CA and Sacramento CA where the mercury hit 100 degrees. (The National Weather Summary) 1988 - Thunderstorms drenched Georgia and the Carolinas with heavy rain, soaking Columbia, SC, with 4.10 inches in three hours. Fresno CA was the hot spot in the nation with a record high of 109 degrees. Duluth MN tied their record for the month of August with a morning low of 39 degrees. (The National Weather Summary) 1989 - Thunderstorms developing ahead of a cold front produced large hail in Montana and North Dakota during the evening and early nighttime hours. Hail three inches in diameter was reported 20 miles south of Medora ND, and thunderstorms over Dawson County MT produced up to three inches of rain. Thunderstorms produced golf ball size hail at Roundup MT, Dazey ND and Protection KS. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

8/30 EWR: 88 New Brnswck: 85 ACY: 85 LGA: 85 TEB: 85 JFK: 85 PHL: 85 BLM: 84 ISP: 84 TTN: 84 NYC: 83

Idalia and Franklin (real - time)

breaks and sun soon

Fri (9/1) opens dry and very pleasant upper 70s. Ridge begins to build by Sat (9/2) warming into the 80s - likely an overperformer day. Sun (9/3) into the following week ridge balloons into the OV and NE - NW-N-NNE flow but very warm to hot. When flow comes around to the NW/W will see stronger heat towards the end of next week. Any onshore component will keep shore cooler and cap stronger heat inland/west. Overall warm into the beyond, unless a ULL cutoff or Tropical system influences the area- looking dry as ridge and heights remain elevated into the east , perhaps that Rockies - TX - Plains ridge is shoved east for an Indian Summer. 90s in Sep to see how this hot forecast lines up with last decade + EWR: 2022: 1 2021: 1 2020: 2019: 3 2018: 4 2017: 3 2016: 5 2015: 5 2014: 3 2013: 1 2012: 2 2011: 0 2010: 6

73 / 71 cloudy and showers to the north/areas. Looks to break up and see some sun later today. Drying out the next few days on a N/NE flow ending Aug near normal. Cooler 60 hours. Fri (9/1) opens dry and very pleasant upper 70s. Ridge begins to build by Sat (9/2) warming into the 80s - likely an overperformer day. Sun (9/3) into the following week ridge balloons into the OV and NE - NW-N-NNE flow but very warm to hot. When flow comes around to the NW/W will see stronger heat towards the end of next week. Any onshore component will keep shore cooler and cap stronger heat inland/west. Overall warm into the beyond, save a ULL cutoff or Tropical system - looking dry as ridge and heights remain elevated into the east , perhaps that Rockies - TX - Plains ridge is shoved east for an Indian Summer.

SomeULL or tropical storm is my inclination.

8/29 TEB: 83 EWR: 83 New Brnswck: 81 JFK: 81 NYC: 80 PHL: 80 ACY: 79 TTN: 79 ISP: 78 LGA: 78 BLM: 74

At the main sites they are closest to normal. ISP, TEB also but still a bit below. Will do the whole list later. In line with 2019 / 2017 for most spots. Sep 19 and 17 were both +1.5 or so. 2017 had the heatwave round Sep 20th-22nd.

Records: Highs: EWR: 100 (1953) NYC: 99 (1953) LGA: 100 (1953) Lows: EWR: 45 (1982) NYC: 50 (1986) LGA: 51 (1982) Historical: 1962 - Hackberry, LA, was deluged with twenty-two inches of rain in 24 hours, establishing a state record. (The Weather Channel) 1965 - A national record for the month of August was established when 2.5 inches of snow fell atop Mount Washington NH. Temperatures in New England dipped to 39 degrees at Nantucket MA, and to 25 degrees in Vermont. For many location it was the earliest freeze of record. (David Ludlum) 1987 - Some of the most powerful thunderstorms in several years developed over the piedmont of North Carolina, and marched across central sections of the state during the late afternoon and evening hours. Baseball size hail was reported around Albemarle, while thunderstorm winds downed giant trees around High Falls. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1988 - Cool air invaded the north central U.S. Ten cities reported record low temperatures for the date, including Bismarck ND with a reading of 33 degrees. Deerfield, a small town in the Black Hills of South Dakota, reported a low of 23 degrees. The remnants of Tropical Storm Chris drenched eastern Pennsylvania with up to five and a half inches of rain, and produced high winds which gusted to 90 mph, severely damaging a hundred boats in Anne Arundel County MD. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1989 - Evening thunderstorms produced destructive lightning in West Virginia. The lightning caused widepsread damage, particularily in Doddridge County. Numerous trees were downed closing many roads. Fire companies had a difficult time tending to the many homes and trailers on fire. Anchorage AK reported a record 9.60 inches of rain for the month of August. The average annual precipitation for Anchorage is just slighty more than fifteen inches. Three day rainfall totals in northwest Missouri ranged up to 8.20 inches at Maryville. (The National Weather Summary) 2005 - Hurricane Katrina made landfall in Plaquemines Parish in southeastern Louisiana early on the 29th with maximum sustained winds near 125 mph, a strong category-three, and the third most-intense landfalling hurricane in U.S. history. The center of the hurricane passed just east of New Orleans, where winds gusted over 100 mph. Widespread devastation and unprecedented flooding occurred, submerging at least 80 percent of the city as levees failed. Farther east, powerful winds and a devastating storm surge of 20-30 feet raked the Mississippi coastline, including Gulfport and Biloxi, where Gulf of Mexico floodwaters spread several miles inland. Rainfall amounts of 8-10 inches were common along and to the east of the storm's path. Katrina weakened to a tropical storm as it tracked northward through Mississippi and gradually lost its identity as it moved into the Tennessee Valley on the 30th, dum 2005: Hurricane Katrina makes landfall near New Orleans, Louisiana, as a Category 3 hurricane. Despite being only the third most powerful storm of the 2005 hurricane season, Katrina was one of the worst natural disasters in the history of the United States.

71 and overcast. Trough moving through with scattered showers, brut of rain missing south and east? We'll see how much we can get in the bucket. Clearing out later tomorrow Wed (8/30) and ending the month near normal Fri (8/31) N flow going a bit onshore as trough lifts out and heights rise. Ridge up and over the top, similar to early June to open Sep. Ridge building into GL/OV with deep trough into the PNW/W . Overall warm to at times hot when the flow comes around to the NW/ . Sep 3 - Sep 11 looking dry but tropical systems could bring rains in what looks like a relatively dry couple of weeks. Beyond there looking like overall warm with heights up into the east.

2019, 2017 most recent EWR: 2019 : -0.2 2017 / -2.4 Thru 8/28 EWR: +0.2

8/28 PHL: 84 ACY: 80 EWR: 78 New Brnswck: 77 LGA: 77 TTN: 77 TEB: 76 NYC: 76 BLM: 74 JFK: 74 ISP: 73

Records: Highs: EWR: 102 (1948) NYC: 100 (1948) LGA: 98 (1948) Lows: EWR: 51 (1941) NYC: 50 (1885) LGA: 54 (1986) Historical: 1898 - Torrents of rain accompanied by a furious wind upset the rain gage at Fort Mohave AZ. However, water in a wash tub set out on the mesa, clear of everything, measured eight inches after the 45 minute storm. (The Weather Channel) 1911 - Saint George, GA, was deluged with 18.00 inches of rain in 24 hours to establish a state record. (The Weather Channel) 1959 - Lieutenant Colonel William Rankin bailed out of his plane at a height of 46,000 feet into a violent thunderstorm, and lived to write about the 45 minute journey (which normally would have been a thirteen minute descent). He described it as one of the most bizarre and painful experiences imaginable. (The Weather Channel) 1971 - Heavy rains from Tropical Storm Doria caused devastating floods in central and northeast New Jersey resulting in 138 million dollars damage. In southeastern Pennsylvania, high winds downed trees and power lines, and in New York City, heavy rains flooded streets and subways. (David Ludlum) 1973: An F4 tornado touched down near Canaan, New York, and moved to western Massachusetts. Three people were killed in West Stockbridge, Massachusetts when a truck stop was destroyed, and another person died in a ruined house nearby. 1986 - The temperature at Apalachicola, FL, dipped to 62 degrees to shatter their previous August record by four degrees, having tied their August record high of 99 degrees on the 2nd of the month. (The Weather Channel) 1987 - Severe thunderstorms broke the heat in the southeastern U.S. and the Gulf Coast Region, but not before seven cities reported record high temperatures for the date. The severe thunderstorms produced wind gusts to 80 mph downing large trees around Horse Shoe NC, and pelted southeastern Meridian MS with hail two inches in diameter. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1988 - Tropical Storm Chris spawned a tornado near Manning, SC, which killed one person, and spawned three tornadoes in North Carolina. Chris produced one to two foot tides, and three to six inch rains, over coastal South Carolina. Severe thunderstorms in New York State and Vermont, developing ahead of a cold front, spawned a tornado which killed one person at Hector NY, produced tennis ball size hail at Brandon VT, and produced wind gusts to 80 mph at Lyndonville VT. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1989 - Early morning thunderstorms in Nebraska produced 4.50 inches of rain around McCook, and 4.65 inches near Auburn and Brownville. Showers in Montana pushed the rainfall total for the month at Havre past the previous August record of 3.90 inches. (The National Weather Summary) 1990: Between 3:15 p.m. and 3:45 p.m. a devastating F5 tornado ripped a 16.4 mile-long path through portions of Kendall and Will counties in northern Illinois. A total of 29 people were killed, and 350 more were injured. An estimated $160 million in damages occurred. The tornado's path width ranged from 200 yards to half a mile. A total of 470 homes were destroyed, and another 1000 homes were damaged. Sixty-five thousand customers lost power. 2005: Hurricane Katrina attained Category 5 status on the morning of August 28 and reached its peak strength at 1800 UTC that day, with maximum sustained winds of 175 mph and a minimum central pressure of 902 mbars (26.6 inHg).

73 / 67 humid and overcast. Trough moves through the next 48 hours with showers and rain. Perhaps the heaviest rain staying south and east, we'll see as potential exists for >1 inch of rain. Beyond there Thu (8/31) into the weekend. Near normal with ride building into the Plains through Sat (9/2) again ridge axis has low wrap around keeping it warm and humid (onshore / southerly) with strongest heat west of the area once to labor day. Overall warm into the beyond elevated heights into the east and should see a push of the heat 9/4 - 9/11 for a day or so otherwise onshore / humid and the way beyond still looks warmer than normal.

8/27 PHL: 88 EWR: 87 ACY: 86 New Brnswck: 85 TEN: 84 NYC: 84 ISP: 84 TTN: 84 LGA: 83 BLM: 83 JFK: 83

85 / 63 and a great day.

Wouldnt surprise me to see a northward drift of the remnants but not sure it get much north of VA/MD as the trou lifts out and riding builds heights. Will be interesting to watch Idalia was just named.

Records: Highs: EWR: 103 (1948) back to 100s for records highs NYC: 101 (1948) LGA: 99 (1948) Lows: EWR: 51 (1942) NYC: 50 (1885) LGA: 55 (1940) Historical: 1881: A Category 2 Hurricane made landfall between St. Simons Island and Savannah, Georgia, on this day. Landfall coincided with high tide and proved very destructive. The hurricane killed 700 people, including 335 in Savannah, making it the sixth deadliest hurricane in the United States. 1893 - The first of three great hurricanes that year struck South Carolina drowning more than 1000 persons in a tidal surge at Charleston. (David Ludlum) 1893: An estimated Category 3 hurricane made landfall near Savannah, Georgia on this day. This hurricane produced a high storm surge of 16 to 30 feet which cost the lives of 1,000 to 2,000 people. As of now, this storm is one of the top 5, deadliest hurricanes on record for the USA. 1964 - Hurricane Cleo battered Miami and the South Florida area. It was the first direct hit for Miami in fourteen years. Winds gusted to 135 mph, and the hurricane caused 125 million dollars damage. (David Ludlum) 1970 - Elko, NV, was deluged with 3.66 inches of rain in just one hour, establishing a state record. (The Weather Channel) 1987 - Washington D.C. soared to a record hot 100 degrees, while clouds and rain to the north kept temperature readings in the 50s in central and southeastern New York State. (The National Weather Summary) 1988 - Afternoon thunderstorms produced locally heavy rains in the southwestern U.S. Thunderstorms in eastern New Mexico produced wind gusts to 75 mph near the White Sands Missile Range, and produced three inches of rain in two hours near the town of Belen. (National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1989 - Afternoon and evening thunderstorms produced severe weather in southeastern Nebraska, eastern Kansas and Missouri. Thunderstorms produced baseball size hail south of Belleville KS, and tennis ball size hail south of Lincoln NE. Thunderstorms produced golf ball size hail and wind gusts to 70 mph at Saint Joseph MO. Thunder- storms in North Dakota deluged the town of Linton with six inches of rain in one hour. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 2005: Hurricane Katrina reached Category 3 intensity in the Gulf of Mexico about 335 miles south-southeast of the mouth of the Mississippi River with maximum sustained winds of 115 mph.

Looks to clear by Wed PM, perhaps similar to Saturday.

72 / 64 and partly / M sunny. Gorgeous day on tap. Low / perhaps mid 80s. Trough swings through Mon - Wed with clouds and showers / clearing by Wed PM. Close the month near normal with tropical system into FL and SE coast which brunt looks to escape east. Ridging into the east to open Sep, onshore flow as ridge axis again south and west GFS / Euro swap - GFS warmer (hotter) Euro warm but onshore / humid. We'll see if heat can make it into the area between 9/4 - 9/11. Overall warmer than normal and tropics a glow.

8/26 PHL: 90 ACY: 88 EWR: 87 New Brnswck: 86 TEB: 86 JFK: 86 BLM: 85 LGA: 85 ISP: 85 TTN: 84 NYC: 84

More clearing and breaks in the clouds to sun