SACRUS

Quickly to 77 here. Overperforming highs

1953 HEAT WAVE https://www.life.com/history/heat-wave-photos-1950s/

Records: Highs: EWR: 105 (1953) - sweltering heatwave NYC: 102 (1953) LGA: 102 (1953) Lows: EWR: 50 (1934) NYC: 51 (1886) LGA: 56 (2017) Historical: 1775: The 1775 Newfoundland hurricane, also known as the Independence Hurricane, was a storm that hit the Colony of Newfoundland. It is believed to have killed at least 4,000 people, making it one of the deadliest Atlantic hurricanes of all time. The death toll in Virginia and North Carolina was 163 lives. 1882: Possibly the first photograph of a lightning strike was taken on this day by William Jennings in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. 1887: The U.S. Army Signal Service station in Greenville, SC reported a minimum temperature of 50°F. This observation at Greenville still stands as the record low for the day. Additional stations across the state recorded low temps in the low 50's. 1935 - Perhaps the most intense hurricane ever to hit the U.S. struck the Florida Keys with 200 mph winds. The hurricane produced a fifteen foot tide and waves thirty feet high. 400 persons perished in the storm on that Labor Day. The barometric pressure at Matecumbe Bay FL hits a record low for the U.S. of 26.35 inches. (David Ludlum) 1950 - The temperature at Mecca, CA, soared to 126 degrees to establish a U.S. record for the month of September. The low that morning was 89 degrees. (The Weather Channel) 1985 - After teasing residents along the Gulf of Mexico for two days, Hurricane Elena finally came ashore at Biloxi MS. The hurricane, packing winds of 127 mph, caused more than a billion dollars damage. (The Weather Channel) 1987 - Late evening thunderstorms in the Northern Plains Region produced wind gusts to 75 mph at Jordan MT, and a ""hot flash"" at Redig SD. The temperature at Redig rose from 66 degrees at 10 PM to 86 degrees at 11 PM as thunderstorm winds gusted to 36 mph. Nine cities in the Upper Ohio Valley, the Tennessee Valley and the Central Gulf Coast States reported record low temperatures for the date, including Elkins WV with a reading of 38 degrees. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1988 - Unseasonably hot weather prevailed in the northwestern U.S. Afternoon highs of 98 degrees at Olympia WA, 98 degrees at Seattle WA, 105 degrees at Portland OR, and 110 degrees at Medford OR, established records for the month of September. Quillayute WA equalled their September record with an afternoon high of 97 degrees. (The National Weather Summary) 1989 - Eight cities in the Gulf Coast Region reported record high temperatures for the date as readings soared into the upper 90s. Houston TX and Port Arthur TX hit 99 degrees. Late evening thunderstorms, developing ahead of a cold front, produced wind gusts to 63 mph at Dickinson ND, and golf ball size hail in North Dakota and Nebraska. Winds along the cold front itself gusted to 62 mph at Buffalo SD. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 2002: An F3 tornado destroyed much of the downtown area of Ladysmith, Wisconsin. Overall damage was estimated at $20 million, but there were no fatalities.

Recent dryness should aid in exceeding and overperforming temps. Records territory Mon - Wed.

58 /56 off a low of 53 here. Should rocket to the mid 80s. Very nice day on top and weekend overall. Start mid septemberish 1/2 and close the back half mid summerish. Sun (9/3) - Thu (9/7) ridge builds and most sustained (widespread) heat of the season for most. Low to mid 90s, perhaps the hot spots can get a 97 or so. 850 MB nearing 18c - 19C >16c through Thu. Records highs safe till Mon - Wed when could challenge. Flow is N-NW. Most forecasts keep the ghost of Idalia east of New England , perhaps enough to turn a NE flow for coastal sections and clouds into LI (wed-Thu) we'll see. Otherwise nicest Labor Day weekend in while all 3/4 days. By later Thu - front / trough approaching and flow going and turning around more SW/S Fri (9/8) - Sat (9/9) - opposite of this spectacular weekend, and with it next shot at rain / storms. By Sun (9/10) trough and cooler NW/NNW flow returns. Way beyond looks more like turn to a more humid flow and warmer overall by mid month.

9/1 EWR: 79 PHL: 79 TEB: 78 New Brnswck: 77 TTN: 77 JFK: 76 LGA: 76 ACY: 76 NYC: 76 ISP: 74 BLM: 72

AUG: BLM: 74.1 (+0.6) EWR: 76.7 (+0.3) PHL: 76.8 (-0.1) ISP: 73.3 (-0.5) JFK: 73.9 (-1.1) NYC: 75 (-1.2) TTN: 73.1 (-1.4) LGA: 76 (-1.8)

Could back enough for onshore N/NE flow and clouds into the coast.

Records: Highs: EWR: 98 (2010) NYC: 97 (1953) LGA: 96 (2010) Lows: EWR: 50 (1934) NYC: 51 (1869) LGA: 55 (1967) Historical: 1859: One of the largest geomagnetic storms on record occurred. 1862: The Battle of Ox Hill (or Chantilly) is also known as the only major Civil War battle to have been fought during a storm. “A severe thunderstorm erupted, resulting in limited visibility and an increased dependence on the bayonet, as the rain soaked the ammunition of the infantry and made it useless.” From Taylor, Paul. He Hath Loosed the Fateful Lightning: The Battle of Ox Hill (Chantilly), 1869: Cleveland Abbe issued the first Weather Bulletin for the city of Cincinnati, Ohio. It contained a few observations telegraphed from distant observers and the “probabilities” for the next day. The bulletin was written by hand. 1894 - A forest fire driven by high winds burned down the town of Hinkley, MN, killing 418 persons. (David Ludlum) 1894: The Great Hinckley Fire, which burned an area of at least 200,000 acres or perhaps more than 250,000 acres including the town of Hinckley, Minnesota occurred on this day. The official death count was 418 though the actual number of fatalities was likely higher. 1897 - Hailstone drifts six feet deep were reported in Washington County, IA. (The Weather Channel) 1914 - The town of Bloomington, MI, was deluged with 9.78 inches of rain in 24 hours to establish a state record. (31st-1st) (The Weather Channel) 1928: Leslie Gray from the Weather Bureau in San Franciso was the first weather forecaster to be deployed to a wildfire. 1952: A cold front brought damaging winds to Fort Worth, Texas, including the Carswell Air Force Base where thirty-five B-36 planes received damage. The anemometer indicated 90 mph winds before being smashed by debris. 1955 - The temperature at Los Angeles, CA, soared to an all-time high of 110 degrees during an eight day string of 100 degree weather. (David Ludlum) 1961: An F4 tornado traveled through parts of Butler and Bremer Counties in Iowa. Unfortunately, there is limited information in the Storm Data entry about this event. Per Thomas Grazulis in Significant Tornadoes, the tornado began NW of Dumont and ended NE of Horton. Several farms along the path were "leveled". It was reported at one farm that fruit jars were "sucked out of the basement" after the house was swept away. There were 7 injuries reported with this event and zero fatalities. 1979 - A home in Centerville TN was hit by lightning and totally destroyed. It marked the third time that the house had been hit by lightning since being built in 1970. (The Weather Channel) 1987 - Cool Canadian air invaded the Midwest. Six cities reported record low temperatures for the date, including Indianapolis IN with a reading of 44 degrees. Hot weather continued in the northwestern U.S. Five cities reported record high temperatures for the date, including Hanover WA, where the mercury soared to 106 degrees. (The National Weather Summary) 1988 - Thunderstorms produced heavy rain in the Upper Mississippi Valley. Ely, MN, was drenched with three inches of rain in two hours, and pelted with one inch hail. The heavy rain flooded streets and basements, and the high water pressure which resulted blew the covers off manholes. (The National Weather Summary)(Storm Data) 1989 - Thunderstorms developing ahead of a cold front produced severe weather in Oklahoma during the late afternoon and evening hours. Thunderstorms produced hail two inches in diameter west of Arapahoe, and wind gusts to 70 mph at Luther and south of Harrah. Early morning thunderstorms over Indiana drenched Kokomo with five to eight inches of rain, and spawned a tornado which injured three persons at Bruce Lake. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 2017: The temperature at Downtown San Fransico reached 106° setting their all-time record high. The previous record was 103° on June 14th, 2000.

Mon- Wed could reach mid 90s in NYC (maybe the park) but NYC proper / NE metro NJ / CNJ.

64 / 52 down from 52 here. NNE flow coming around to the N warming to near / low 80s. Sat (9/2) - the week ridge builds flow to the NW heating it up 90s Sun - Wed or Thu. Ghost of Idalia may back enough to bring onshore flow especially to the coast perhaps even clouds GFS more west / Euro keeps east. Peak of this late heat mon - wed 850 MB temps >16c, / >18c. Strongest heat may stay just a shade west. Thu / Fri (9/8) watch for any onshore. Ridge into the SW by the 10 but heights look to come back up east towards mid month. Overall warm and mainly dry outside ULL cutting of beneath the ridge or tropical energy.

8/31 PHL: 81 EWR: 80 New Brnswck: 78 TTN: 78 BLM: 77 LGA: 77 JGK: 77 NYC: 77 ACY: 76 TEB: 76 ISP: 76

Sep EWR 2022: 69.7 (+0.5) 2021: 72.4 (+3.2) 2020: 69.1 (-0.1) 2019: 70.8 (+1.6) 2018: 71.4 (+2.2) 2017: 70.9 (+1.7) 2016: 71.8 (+2.6) 2015: 73.4 (+4.2) 2014: 69.8 (+0.6) 2013: 67.2 (-2.) 2012: 69.5 (+0.3) 2011: 71.2 (+2) 2010: 71.6 (+2.4)

Looks like the ghots of Idalia pushed west from the expanding Western Atlantic Ridge on the GFS and Euro. Clouds / onshore flow / rain LI/New England to muck up the heat Wed - Fri?

Sep opens near normal and dry with a NE onshore-ish low. Ridge builds east as deep trough moves into the PNW - WC. Overall warm to hot as flow comes around NE-N - NW and Wrly. Some heat especially inland 9/3 - 9/11. Outside of the ghost of Idalia being pushed back west towards New England 9/7 - 9/9 from the building Wstern Atl Rdge - looks dry and overall warm. Into the beyond overall ridging but need to watch cut off or ULL othr wise riding a warm Sep.

67 / 52 clouds splitting the region / S 1/2 on NJ (Idalia). Should clear out later today. August ending on a dry and gorgeous note. Warm near 80 and lows in the 60s / 50s inland. Sep opens near normal and dry with a NE onshore-ish low. Ridge builds east as deep trough moves into the PNW - WC. Overall warm to hot as flow comes around NE-N - NW and Wrly. SOme heat especially inland. Outside of the ghost of Idalia being pushed back west from the building Wstern Atl Rdge - looks dry and overall warm. Into the beyond overall ridging but need to watch cut off or ULL othr wise riding a warm Sep.

8/30 Records: Highs: EWR: 100 (1953) NYC: 98 (1973) LGA: 99 (1953) Lows: EWR: 49 (1934) NYC: 50 (1965) LGA: 55 (1986) Historical: 1776 - General Washington took advantage of a heavy fog to evacuate Long Island after a defeat. Adverse winds kept the British fleet from intervening. (David Ludlum) 1838: A major tornado, possibly the worst in Rhode Island history, passed south of Providence. It uprooted and stripped trees of their branches, unroofed or destroyed many houses, and sucked water out of ponds. The tornado barely missed a local railroad depot, where many people were waiting for a train. The tornado injured five people. 1839 - A hurricane moved from Cape Hatteras NC to offshore New England. An unusual feature of the hurricane was the snow it helped produce, which whitened the Catskill Mountains of New York State. Considerable snow was also reported at Salem NY. (The Weather Channel) 1982 - A tropical depression brought torrential rains to portions of southern Texas. Up to twelve inches fell south of Houston, and as much as eighteen inches fell southeast of Austin. The tropical depression spawned fourteen tornadoes in three days. (David Ludlum) Record cold gripped the northeastern U.S. Thirty-one cities in New England reported record lows, and areas of Vermont received up to three inches of snow. (The Weather Channel) 1987 - Eight cities in California and Oregon reported record high temperatures for the date, including Redding CA and Sacramento CA where the mercury hit 100 degrees. (The National Weather Summary) 1988 - Thunderstorms drenched Georgia and the Carolinas with heavy rain, soaking Columbia, SC, with 4.10 inches in three hours. Fresno CA was the hot spot in the nation with a record high of 109 degrees. Duluth MN tied their record for the month of August with a morning low of 39 degrees. (The National Weather Summary) 1989 - Thunderstorms developing ahead of a cold front produced large hail in Montana and North Dakota during the evening and early nighttime hours. Hail three inches in diameter was reported 20 miles south of Medora ND, and thunderstorms over Dawson County MT produced up to three inches of rain. Thunderstorms produced golf ball size hail at Roundup MT, Dazey ND and Protection KS. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

8/30 EWR: 88 New Brnswck: 85 ACY: 85 LGA: 85 TEB: 85 JFK: 85 PHL: 85 BLM: 84 ISP: 84 TTN: 84 NYC: 83

Idalia and Franklin (real - time)

breaks and sun soon

Fri (9/1) opens dry and very pleasant upper 70s. Ridge begins to build by Sat (9/2) warming into the 80s - likely an overperformer day. Sun (9/3) into the following week ridge balloons into the OV and NE - NW-N-NNE flow but very warm to hot. When flow comes around to the NW/W will see stronger heat towards the end of next week. Any onshore component will keep shore cooler and cap stronger heat inland/west. Overall warm into the beyond, unless a ULL cutoff or Tropical system influences the area- looking dry as ridge and heights remain elevated into the east , perhaps that Rockies - TX - Plains ridge is shoved east for an Indian Summer. 90s in Sep to see how this hot forecast lines up with last decade + EWR: 2022: 1 2021: 1 2020: 2019: 3 2018: 4 2017: 3 2016: 5 2015: 5 2014: 3 2013: 1 2012: 2 2011: 0 2010: 6

73 / 71 cloudy and showers to the north/areas. Looks to break up and see some sun later today. Drying out the next few days on a N/NE flow ending Aug near normal. Cooler 60 hours. Fri (9/1) opens dry and very pleasant upper 70s. Ridge begins to build by Sat (9/2) warming into the 80s - likely an overperformer day. Sun (9/3) into the following week ridge balloons into the OV and NE - NW-N-NNE flow but very warm to hot. When flow comes around to the NW/W will see stronger heat towards the end of next week. Any onshore component will keep shore cooler and cap stronger heat inland/west. Overall warm into the beyond, save a ULL cutoff or Tropical system - looking dry as ridge and heights remain elevated into the east , perhaps that Rockies - TX - Plains ridge is shoved east for an Indian Summer.

SomeULL or tropical storm is my inclination.

8/29 TEB: 83 EWR: 83 New Brnswck: 81 JFK: 81 NYC: 80 PHL: 80 ACY: 79 TTN: 79 ISP: 78 LGA: 78 BLM: 74

At the main sites they are closest to normal. ISP, TEB also but still a bit below. Will do the whole list later. In line with 2019 / 2017 for most spots. Sep 19 and 17 were both +1.5 or so. 2017 had the heatwave round Sep 20th-22nd.