SACRUS

GFS much less (ugly) but it's Memorial Day and the uglier solution is prone to prevailing. :-) We'll see. Euro had the cut off down in the southeast a few days back but had been persistent there would be something undercutting the ridge. Looks like trough into the PNW/WC eyond Memorial Day with flatter flow and some ridging pishing east once the cut off / ULL is sorted out.

0.95 in the bucket. Clearing out now for a nice day upper 70s. Overall dry and normal stretch coming up the next 5 days. Highs generally near 70 or low 70s. Today and Wed (5/24) warmest day of the next five. Models had been hinting for a while the ridge builds east but cuts of Memorial day weekend. The last few runs show ULL over the Northeast steering a low through the area Sat (5/27). We'll see how it evolves - looking like southerly / onshore flow and if the low is steered as the Euro shows could be 24-36 hour ugly Fri-Sat. Beyond there, ridging pushes through and warmth builds down and into the area.

0.79 in the bucket. Rain winding down and pressing east. Some showers as the front passes through later likely. E of GSP and points into the city and LI/CT getting the heavier totals. thru 3PM JFK: 1.06 New Brnswk: 0.77 LGA: 0.47 TEB: 0.39 NYC: 0.35

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Records: Highs: EWR: 98 (1962) NYC: 99 (1962) almost made the sole century mark recording in May LGA: 96 (2016) Lows: EWR: 39 (2002) - the heat was on not too far or long thereafter this 4 day cold stretch NYC: 38 (1976) LGA: 43 (1976) Historical: 1780 - The infamous "dark day" in New England tradition. At noon it was nearly as dark as night. Chickens went to roost, and many persons were fearful of divine wrath. The phenomena was caused by forest fires to the west of New England. (David Ludlum) 1915: A spring storm came to an end after producing widespread snow. Total snowfall from the storm included: 17.6 inches in Scottsbluff, Nebraska, 8 inches at Cheyenne, Wyoming, 7 inches at Chadron and 3.9 inches in North Platte, Nebraska. 1955 - Lake Maloya NM received 11.28 inches of rain in 24 hours to establish a state record. (The Weather Channel) 1975 - Thunderstorms produced golf ball size hail and wind gusts to 110 mph in Minnesota, between Fridley and Hugo. Fifty persons were injured. The hail and high winds destroyed fifty mobile homes, and a dozen aircraft, and also destroyed a third of the Brighton Elementary School. (The Weather Channel) 1987 - Thunderstorms in Texas produced thirteen inches of rain northwest of Lavernia. The heavy rain, along with golf ball size hail, destroyed eighty percent of the crops in the area, while high winds toppled trees. Golf ball size hail was also reported south of Dallas and around San Antonio. Up to eight inches of rain drenched Guadelupe County. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1988 - Severe thunderstorms in southwest Texas produced hail as large as tennis balls around Midland, with the hail accumulating up to a foot deep. Showers and thunderstorms in the Middle Atlantic Coast Region produced 3.5 inches of rain near Schuylkill PA. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1989 - Thunderstorms developing ahead of a cold front spawned ten tornadoes from Illinois to Tennessee during the afternoon and night. Snow, wind and cold prevailed in the Northern Plateau Region and the Northern Rockies. Dixie, ID, was blanketed with nine inches of snow, winds gusted to 87 mph at Choteau MT, and the temperature at Crater Lake, OR, dipped to 11 degrees. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary) 1990 - Thunderstorms deluged Hot Springs AR with thirteen inches of rain in nine hours resulting in a devastating flood. Two waves of water, four to six feet deep, swept down Central Avenue flooding stores and the famous bathhouses on Bathhouse Row. Water released from Lake Hamilton devastated the area between it and Remmel Dam. The 500 foot Carpenter Dam Bridge across Lake Catherine was completely washed away, as were cabins and mobile homes near the lake, many of which flowed right over the top of Remmel Dam. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

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60/59 with some showers in a line spread across moving NNW. Expecting .50 - 1.00 today with much more in eastern sections. Back to the overall dry stretch with normal temperatures tomorrow. Sun (5/21) back to the 80s n the warmer spots and near 80 elsewhere. Those that get some meaningful rain are the winners in what looks dry again for the next 7 days. The week looking mainly and near normal, next shot at 80 is Wed (5/24). Ridge does build east by Memorial day weekend but centers near KS and see ULL cut off and lots of onshore / southerly flow with heat going up north (similar to past years). At this time looks dry and the Euro keep the main ut off down south and keeps us near normal for Memorial Day weekend. Have been seeing hints of this for many days on guidance. Beyond there to close the month and open next month - heat looks to push down into the area

Down to 37 now up to 53. Overall (outside of Sat) dry, near normal stretch of weather the next 8 days. Sat (5/20) rain for the area, first meaningful amounts in more than 2 weeks, brunt or heavist >1 inch or more still to be determined. could see temps push near 80 Sunday (5/21) with enough clearing, balanced out by cooler Mon (5/22) and Tue (5/23). Warming tend through the rest of next week with ridge building into the Ohio Valley and east memorial day weekend. Need to see if onshore flow undercuts ridge and perhaps some stormiess run up under, but overall warmer / more humid and perhaps heat build down by months end.

5/16 EWR: 83 BLM: 82 LGA: 81 New Brnswck: 80 PHL: 80 NYC: 79 TEB: 79 ACY: 79 TTN: 78 JFK: 78 ISP: 76

Just a namazing day 75/ 39 bright sunshine.

Records: Highs: EWR: 92 (1951) NYC: 90 (1951) LGA: 90 (1951) Lows: EWR: 40 (2016) NYC: 42 (1878) LGA: 41 (1983) Historical: 1874 - The Mill Creek disaster occurred west of Northhampton MA. Dam slippage resulted in a flash flood which claimed 143 lives, and caused a million dollars property damage. (David Ludlum) 1924 - The temperature at Blitzen OR soared to 108 degrees to set a state record for the month of May. The record was later tied at Pelton Dam on the 31st of May in 1986. (The Weather Channel) 1952 - High winds in the Wasatch Canyon of Utah struck Ogden and Brigham City. Winds at Hill Air Force Base gusted to 92 mph. (The Weather Channel) 1983: An unyielding spring storm dumped heavy snow across the Front Range in Colorado. High winds of 20 to 40 mph with gusts to 55 mph produced blizzard conditions at times. The Foothills received 1 to 2 feet of snow with 4 to 12 inches along the Foothills. Blowing snow whipped the snow into drifts several feet deep closing schools and highways. Power outages occurred; with 20 square miles of Denver blacked out. Hundreds of passengers were stranded as only half of the runways were open at Stapleton International Airport. The high temperature at Denver the next day of just 40° set a record low maximum. Much of the snow melted on the 18th as temperatures rebounded into the middle and upper 50s causing widespread street flooding. 1987 - It was a summer-like day as thunderstorms abounded across the nation. Thunderstorms in Texas drenched Guadelupe County with more than three inches of rain resulting in flash flooding. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1988 - Afternoon and evening thunderstorms developing ahead of a cold front produced severe weather from Florida to New York State. Unseasonably warm weather prevailed in the north central U.S. Havre, MT, reported a record high of 95 degrees. (The National Weather Summary) 1989 - Thunderstorms developing ahead of a cold front produced severe weather in the south central U.S. Thunderstorms spawned twenty tornadoes, and there were 180 reports of large hail and damaging winds. A tornado at Cleburne, TX, caused 30 million dollars damage. A violent (F-4) tornado touched down near Brackettville, TX, and a strong (F-3) tornado killed one person and injured 28 others at Jarrell, TX. Thunderstorms also produced softball size hail at Shamrock, TX. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1990 - Thunderstorms produced severe weather from eastern Oklahoma and northeastern Texas to the Upper Ohio Valley. Thunderstorms spawned seventeen tornadoes, including a twister which killed one person and injured another north of Corning, AR. There were 128 reports of large hail or damaging winds. Strong thunderstorm winds killed one person and injured six others at Folsomville, IN, and injured another five persons in southeastern Hardin County KY. In Arkansas, baseball size hail was reported near Fouke and near El Dorado. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

Overall tremendous stretch of weather the next 9 days (outside Sat/ pat of Sun). Today the warmest of the bunch with low to perhaps a mid 80s readings. Cooler Wed and Thu (5/18) with most places below 70 and 40s overnight perhaps some 30s inland. Fri (5/19) back to the 70s, ahead of the next system over the weekend. Next shot of meaningful rain comes during the weekend, still some details on heaviest rains, which could stay east. Beyond there drier next week and warming towards md week Wed (5/24). Ridging to build in by Memorial day, but some hints of cutoff under the ridge per the gfs. Will need to see but looking a bit more humid southerly / pnshore-ish later next week into Memorial day weekend..

Records: Highs: EWR: 92 (2018) NYC: 90 (1900) LGA: 92 (2018) Lows: EWR: 43 (1947) NYC: 42 (1947) LGA: 43 (1947) Hisotrical: 1834 - The Northern Atlantic Coast States were in the midst of their greatest May snowstorm of record. The hills around Newbury, VT, were covered with two to three feet of snow. (David Ludlum) 1896: An estimated F5 tornado struck Sherman, Texas, killing 73 people; 60 of them in downtown. Tornado victims were found as far as 400 yards away from their original location. A trunk lid was carried 35 miles by the twister. 1957: An F4 tornado killed 20 people in Silverton, Texas. A 5,000-pound gasoline storage tank was reportedly carried 1.5 miles and dropped into a lake. Residents said the tornado "looked like red sand, boiling and rumbling." 1968 - A tornado touched down southwest of Anchorage, AK. It was the second of just three tornadoes reported in Alaska since 1950. (The Weather Channel) 1968: Also, an F5 tornado moved through Butler, Chickasaw, Floyd, Franklin, and Howard Counties in northeast Iowa. The tornado touched down northeast from north of Hansell, passing east of Aredale and Marble Rock, before devastating Charles City. The tornado grew more massive and intense as it approached Charles City. The huge funnel passed directly through town, destroying 337 homes, and causing about $30 million in damage. The tornado continued to the northeast hitting Elma. From there the tornado turned to the north and dissipated south of Chester, 4 miles south of the Minnesota border. Nearly 2000 homes were damaged or destroyed. All 13 deaths occurred in Floyd County. 450 injuries were reported in Floyd County and 12 injuries in Howard County. Another F5 tornado moved north-northeast from southwest of Oelwein to Maynard and east of Randalia in Fayette County, IA. Homes were leveled and swept away in both Oelwein and Maynard. The warning sirens had sounded for only 15 seconds before the power failed in Oelwein. Nearly 1000 homes were damaged or destroyed along the path, and 34 people had to be hospitalized. Almost 1,000 families were affected. In addition to these F5 tornadoes, an F2 tornado touched down 6 miles south of Cresco, IA and two weak F1 tornadoes touched down in Dodge County, MN. Also, baseball size hail fell in Fayette County, IA. 1972 - The worst ice jam flooding of memory for long-time residents took place along the Kuskokwim River and Yukon River in Alaska. It was the first time since 1890 that the two rivers "flowed as one". The towns of Oscarville and Napaskiak were completely inundated. (15th-31st) (The Weather Channel) 1987 - Unseasonably warm weather returned to the north central U.S. Seven cities reported record high temperatures for the date, including Janestown, ND, with a reading of 96 degrees. Thunderstorms in Utah produced five inches of rain south of Bicknell. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1988 - Thunderstorms in Oklahoma produced wind gusts to 80 mph in Oklahoma County, and baseball size hail at Pawnee. Hail piled up to a depth of 18 inches south of Pawnee. Hail damage in Oklahoma was estimated at close to 25 million dollars. Thunderstorms in the Upper Midwest produced golf ball size hail around Cleveland, OH, and wind gusts to 83 mph at Angola, IN. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary) 1989 - Thunderstorms developing along and north of a stationary front produced severe weather in the south central U.S. Thunderstorms spawned eleven tornadoes, and there were 145 reports of large hail and damaging winds. Softball size hail caused 2.1 million dollars damage at Sherman, TX. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1990 - Thunderstorms produced severe weather from the Central Plains Region and Oklahoma to Indiana and western Kentucky. Thunderstorms spawned fifteen tornadoes, including seven in Oklahoma, and there were 165 reports of large hail or damaging winds. A tornado killed one person, injured a dozen others, and caused four million dollars damage at Stillwater, OK. Another tornado injured eight persons at Foyil, OK. Thunderstorms in Oklahoma also produced wind gusts to 92 mph at Oologah Lake, and softball size hail at Canton and north of Oakwood. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

down to 43 and a lovely 63 and sunny. A brilliant stretch of weather coming up overall the next 9 days. No real push in either direction. But continue to dry out. Outside some clouds and showers this coming weekend (5/20-21) overall sunny and near normal. Tue (5/16) looks to be the warmest day in the bunch with some 80s. Wed (5/17) and Thu (5/18) the coolest staying below 70 and 40s at night. Rain on the weekend looks to wait till Sat nigh into Sun. So perhaps not a full washout. Beyond there hints of a more onshore/southerly flow before ridging builds by Memorial day.

Daylight 14H 29M about the same as Jul 29.

Records: Highs: EWR: 86 (1991) lowest record highs for the month NYC: 88 (1900) LGA: 84 (1991) Lows: EWR: 36 (1939) NYC: 40 (1878) LGA: 44 (2019) Historical: 1896 - The mercury plunged to 10 degrees below zero at Climax, CO. It was the lowest reading of record for the U.S. during the month of May. (David Ludlum) 1898 - A severe thunderstorm, with some hailstones up to 9.5 inches in circumference, pounded a four mile wide path across Kansas City MO. South-facing windows were broken in nearly every house in central and eastern parts of the city, and several persons were injured. An even larger hailstone was thought to have been found, but it turned out to be a chunk of ice tossed out the window of a building by a prankster. (The Kansas City Weather Almanac) (The Weather Channel) 1923: An early morning violent estimated F5 tornado cut a 45-mile path of destruction through Howard and Mitchell counties in Texas. 23 people lost their lives and 250 sustained injuries. The path width of the tornado reached 1.5 miles at one point, and entire farms were "wiped off the face of the earth." The First Baptist Church in Colorado City, Texas became an emergency hospital for tornado victims. 1987 - Seven cities across the western U.S. reported record high temperatures for the date as unseasonably hot weather made a comeback. The record high of 103 degrees at Sacramento CA was their ninth in eleven days, and also marked a record seven days of 100 degree heat for the month. Their previous record was two days of 100 degree heat in May. (The National Weather Summary) 1988 - Sunny and dry weather prevailed across the nation. Temperatures warmed into the 80s and lower 90s in the Great Plains Region and the Mississippi Valley. (The National Weather Summary) 1989 - Thunderstorms developing along a stationary front produced severe weather in south central Texas and the Southern High Plains Region during the afternoon and evening hours. Thunderstorms produced softball size hail at Spearman and Hitchcock, TX. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1990 - Thunderstorms developing ahead of a cold front produced severe weather from northwest Texas to western Missouri. Severe thunderstorms spawned seventeen tornadoes, including nine in Texas. Four tornadoes in Texas injured a total of nine persons. Thunderstorms in Texas also produced hail four inches in diameter at Shamrock, and hail four and a half inches in diameter near Guthrie. Thunderstorms over northeastern Kansas produced more than seven inches of rain in Chautauqua County between 9 PM and midnight. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary)

Drying out again, we'll see if a more humid/perhaps stormier pattern comes around later next week (after 5/25)

65 and partly cloudy, sunny and dry much of the week. Mid 70s today, upper 70s tomorrow, low 80s Tue (5/16). Cooler Wed (5/17) - Thu (5/18) staying near or below 70. Brief warmup Fri (5/19), before the next chance of meaningful rain Sat (5/20). Overall not a sign for any real departures either way, brief warmup 5/23-5/24. Ridging building east by Memorial day. Beyond there signal for onshore flow later in the range but looking warmer/ humid end of the month.

Records: Highs: EWR: 92 (1959) NYC: 93 (1881) LGA: 88 (1991) Lows: EWR: 40 (1938) NYC: 40 (1907) LGA: 43 (1940) Historical: 1930 - A man was killed when caught in an open field during a hailstorm northwest of Lubbock TX. It was the first, and perhaps the only, authentic death by hail in U.S. weather records. (David Ludlum) 1980: An F3 tornado ripped directly through the center of Kalamazoo, Michigan, killing five people, injuring 79, leaving 1,200 homeless and causing $50 million in damage. The tornado passed directly over the American Bank, where a barograph reported a pressure drop of 0.59 inches. 1981 - A tornado 450 yards in width destroyed ninety percent of Emberson TX. People did not see a tornado, but rather a wall of debris. Homes were leveled, a man in a bathtub was hurled a quarter of a mile, and a 1500 pound recreational vehicle was hurled 500 yards. Miraculously no deaths occurred in the tornado. (The Weather Channel) 1987 - A cold front brought an end to the early season warm spell in the north central U.S., but not before the temperature at Sioux City IA soared to a record warm 95 degrees. Strong southwesterly winds ahead of the cold front gusted to 52 mph at Marais MI. Evening thunderstorms produced golf ball size hail at Rockford MN, and wind gusts to 75 mph at Belmond IA. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary) 1988 - Strong winds along a cold front ushering cold air into the northwestern U.S. gusted to 69 mph at Myton UT. Temperatures warmed into the 80s ahead of the cold front, as far north as Montana. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1989 - Thunderstorms developing along a warm front produced severe weather in the Southern Plains Region during the afternoon and night. A thunderstorm at Killeen TX produced wind gusts to 95 mph damaging 200 helicopters at Fort Hood causing nearly 500 million dollars damage. Another thunderstorm produced softball size hail at Hodges TX. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1990 - Thunderstorms developing ahead of a cold front spawned ten tornadoes from eastern Wyoming to northern Kansas, including seven in western Nebraska. Thunderstorms forming ahead of a cold front in the eastern U.S. spawned five tornadoes from northeastern North Carolina to southern Pennsylvania. Thunderstorms over southeast Louisiana deluged the New Orleans area with four to eight inches of rain between 7 AM and Noon. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1995: This outbreak produced tornadoes extending from the Mississippi River near Burlington, Iowa, to the west of Bloomington, Illinois. Two violent tornadoes, each ranked at F4 intensity, were reported. The first tornado traveled 60 miles from near Fort Madison, Iowa, to the southeast of Galesburg, Illinois producing over $10 million damage. The town of Raritan, Illinois was hit the hardest. The second violent tornado traveled 7 miles across Fulton County from Ipava to Lewistown, Illinois producing $6 million damage. Another strong tornado took a 25-mile path across parts of Fulton, Mason, and Tazewell Counties. The storms also produced softball-size hail south and northwest of Macomb in Illinois. Five men were injured in Lawrence County, Indiana when lightning struck one of them and traveled to the other four. There were 184 reports of severe weather, including over three dozen tornadoes.

73/61 cloudy with showers missing to the west and south. Should touch near or 80 today despite the cluds. Most places look dry as it continues to dry out. Clearing by Mothers day (5/14) could still be a bit cloudy. Mon (5/15) - Wed (5/17) warmer before cooler by Wed evening into Thu (5/18) perhaps staying below 70 or close to it. Next shot of some meaningful rain (more than a trace) is looking like next Fri (5/19) and Sat (5/20). No real strong departures either way. Some hint next brief push of warmer - hot by 5/24. In the way beyond Ridging into the east coast by Memorial day timing.

5/12 EWR: 90 BLM: 88 PHL: 87 LGA: 87 NYC: 87 New Brnswck: 86 TEB: 86 ACY: 86 IP: 85 TTN: 85

Records: Highs: EWR: 92 (1959) NYC: 93 (1881) LGA: 88 (1991) Lows: EWR: 40 (1938) NYC: 40 (1907) LGA: 43 (1940) Historical: 1760: Ben Franklin was the first person to identify nor'easters. In a letter on this date to Alexander Small of London, Franklin described an experience that happened to him in November 1743 when storm clouds in Philadelphia blocked his view of an eclipse. Franklin assumed that the storm had blown in from the northeast because the surface winds at his location were from that direction. He was puzzled to find out later that his brother had viewed the eclipse with no problems and that the storm had arrived in Boston four hours later. The information caused Franklin to surmise correctly that the storm had moved from southwest to northeast. 1886: An estimated F4 tornado touched down in Vermilion County near Armstrong, Illinois, and passed between Alvin and Rossville before moving into Indiana. At least five houses were destroyed, two of which were entirely swept away. Three people were killed. Five other strong tornadoes occurred across Illinois that day: two near Mt. Carroll, one near Odell, one near Jacksonville, and one in Iroquois County. 1934 - A dust storm darkened skies from Oklahoma to the Atlantic coast. (David Ludlum) 1971 - Duststorms suddenly reduced visibilities to near zero on Interstate Highway 10 near Casa Grande AZ. Chain reaction accidents involving cars and trucks resulted, killing seven persons. (The Weather Channel) 1972 - In Texas, A cloudburst dumped sixteen inches of rain north of New Braunfels sending a thirty foot wall of water down Blueders Creek into the Comal and Guadalupe Rivers washing away people, houses and automobiles. The flood claimed 18 lives and caused more than twenty million dollars damage. (The Weather Channel) 1982 - A late season snowstorm struck the Front Range of the Colorado Rockies. The storm produced 46 inches of snow at Coal Creek Canyon, located near Boulder. (David Ludlum) 1987 - A heat wave persisted in central California. Afternoon highs of 100 degrees at Fresno CA and 102 degrees at Sacramento CA were records for the date. (The National Weather Summary) 1988 - Unseasonably warm weather prevailed in the western U.S. Eight cities reported record high temperatures for the date, including Pendleton OR with a high of 92 degrees and Phoenix AZ with a reading of 106 degrees. (The National Weather Summary) 1989 - Showers and thunderstorms associated with a low pressure system stalled over New York State drenched Portland ME with 4.50 inches of rain in 24 hours. Rains of 5 to 7 inches soaked the state of Maine over a four day period causing 1.3 million dollars damage. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1990 - Thunderstorms produced severe weather from eastern Texas and the Central Gulf Coast States into Missouri and Illinois. Thunderstorms spawned six tornadoes, including one which injured four persons at Doloroso MS. Thunderstorms also produced hail three inches in diameter west of Vicksburg MS, and wind gusts to 83 mph in southern Illinois, north of Vevay Park and at the Coles County Airport. High winds and heavy rain caused 1.6 million dollars crop damage in Calhoun County IL, and in southeastern Louisiana, Saint Joseph was deluged with eight inches of rain. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1997: A towering F1 tornado ripped its way through the middle of Miami, Biscayne Bay, and Miami Beach right after lunch Monday, smashing cars and windows, tossing trees skyward and scaring the dickens out of thousands of people.

Up to 87 now. Had lots of high clouds earlier, probably mixed with candian fire smoke. 89 at EWR now with more sun. Cloudier tomorrow but not much more than showers north of SNJ. Mothers day (5/14) looks beautiful. Warmer by Mon (5/15) and more 80s by Tue (5/16) before a sharp front brings a cooler airmass by mid week Wed (517). Next weekend looks to be next shot of rain Sat (5/20). Beyond there no real strong departures either way. Ridging to build into the east by Memorial day.

5/11 EWR: 84 LGA: 82 TEB: 82 ACY: 81 New Brnswck: 81 BLM: 81 NYC: 80 PHL: 80 TTN: 79 ISP: 78 JFK: 75