SACRUS

37 / 15 clear and what should be the warmest day since the 16th, mid 40s. Should see the warmest 3-4 days (3-4 days of >50) since December 8th- 11th. SOme light rain Thu-Fri AM. Next weekend looking like a split warmer Saturday and colder Sunday . The period 3/2 - 3/5 moderated on the more recent guidance.

Up to 43 today had clear / sunny skies till 1:30/2:00. Quickly down to 34

The trough is in the east Mar 2/3 - 5/6th and looks below normal that stretch with some colder departures 3-5th

Adding ISP : -0.8 NJ - EPA TTN: -3.1 MMU: -1.7 ABE: -1.8 ACY: -1.8 PHL: -1.5

Would eventually get grazed with 3 - 5 inches of snow in (1987) by the 23rd from that storm. Very active winter but suppressed tracks.

Thru the 21st JFK: + 0.9 EWR: - 1.5 LGA: -2.8 NYC: -3.1

Cold period 2/17 NYC: 36 / 26 (-5) LGA: 38 / 27 (-4) EWR: 38 / 27 (-3) JFK: 39 / 29 (-1) ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 2/18 JFK: 32 / 22 (-8) EWR: 30 / 20 (-11) NYC: 27/19 (-13) LGA: 28 / 20 (-13) ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 2/19 EWR: 34 / 17 (-10) NYC: 30 / 17 (-13) LGA: 31 / 18 (-12) JFK: 36 / 20 (-6) ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 2/20 EWR: 31 / 19 (-11) NYC: 29 / 18 (-13) LGA: 30 / 19 (-12) JFK: 34 / 20 (-8) ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 2/21 EWR: 37 / 22 (-6) NYC: 36 / 22 (-8) LGA: 35 / 22 (-8) JFK: 40 / 24 (-4)

Thinking we have 3 -5 days colder.

Records: Highs: EWR: 70 (1997) NYC: 66 (1997) LGA: 70 (1997) JFK: 64 (1991) Lows: EWR: 8 (1963) NYC: 8 (1963) LGA: 9 (1963) JFK: 9 (1968) Historical: 1773 - The memorable "Cold Sabbath" in New England history. Many persons froze extremities while going to church. (David Ludlum) 1773: According to David Ludlum, "The memorable Cold Sabbath in New England history" took place on February 22, 1773. "Many persons froze extremities while going to church." 1936 - Although heat and dust prevailed in the spring and summer, early 1936 brought record cold to parts of the U.S. Sioux Center IA reported 42 inches of snow on the ground, a state record. (20th-22nd) (The Weather Channel) 1971: One of the worst snowstorms in Oklahoma history dumped up to 3 feet of snow on northwest Oklahoma from February 20nd to February 22. By the time the snow ended on the 22nd, the city of Buffalo had 36 inches of snow on the ground, setting the state record for storm-total snowfall. Winds of 30 to 50 mph caused snowdrifts up to 20 feet high. Follett, Texas, picked up 26 inches while Amarillo recorded 14 inches. 1986 - A twelve siege of heavy rain and snow, which produced widespread flooding and mudslides across northern and central California, finally came to an end. The storm caused more than 400 million dollars property damage. Bucks Lake, located in the Sierra Nevada Range, received 49.6 inches of rain during the twelve day period. (Storm Data) 1987 - A storm moving northeastward out of the Gulf of Mexico began to spread heavy snow across the Middle Atlantic Coast Region. Thunderstorms in northern Florida produced wind gusts to 65 mph in Alachua County. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1988 - Dry weather prevailed across the nation, with windy conditions from the Central Rockies to northern New England. Winds gusted to 58 mph at Cleveland OH, and reached 63 mph at Erie PA. Winds in the Central Rockies gusted to 120 mph at Mines Peak CO and Rendezvous Peak WY. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1989 - Strong northwesterly winds ushering cold arctic air into the north central U.S. produced snow squalls in the Great Lakes Region, with heavy snow near Lake Michigan. Totals in northwest Indiana ranged up to 24 inches at Gary, and up to 16 inches buried northeastern Illinois. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1990 - Thunderstorms developing along and ahead of a cold front produced severe weather from southern Mississippi to North Carolina. One thunderstorm spawned a tornado just prior to dawn which touched down near Opp AL injuring ten persons and causing half a million dollars damage. Thunderstorm winds injured four persons south of Troy AL, and five people at Columbus GA. Thunderstorm winds gusted to 76 mph at Dothan AL. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

26 / 12 and sunny / dry weekend. 40s next two days then 50s mid week, warmer spots may touch 60 on Tuesday. Warmer than normal 2/24 - 3/1. Sharp cold turn 3/2 - 3/9.

Dry but suspect this changes with Thu (2/27) and the next weekend 28 - 3/2

Cold period 2/17 NYC: 36 / 26 (-5) LGA: 38 / 27 (-4) EWR: 38 / 27 (-3) JFK: 39 / 29 (-1) ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 2/18 JFK: 32 / 22 (-8) EWR: 30 / 20 (-11) NYC: 27/19 (-13) LGA: 28 / 20 (-13) ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 2/19 EWR: 34 / 17 (-10) NYC: 30 / 17 (-13) LGA: 31 / 18 (-12) JFK: 36 / 20 (-6) ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 2/20 EWR: 31 / 19 (-11) NYC: 29 / 18 (-13) LGA: 30 / 19 (-12) JFK: 34 / 20 (-8) ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Records: Highs: EWR: 80 (2018) NYC: 78 (2018) LGA: 79 (2018) JFK: 65 (2018) Lows: EWR: 6 (1959) NYC: 5 (1968) LGA: 6 (1968) JFK: 5 (1968) Historical: 1918 - A spectacular chinook wind at Granville, ND, caused the temperature to spurt from a morning low of 33 degrees below zero to an afternoon high of 50 degrees above zero. (David Ludlum) 1935 - Frequent duststorms occurred in eastern Colorado during the month, forcing schools to close and people to stay indoors. A fatality occurred on this date when two section cars collided on the railroad near Arriba CO, due to poor visibility. (The Weather Channel) 1936 - The temperature at Langdon, ND, climbed above zero for the first time in six weeks. Readings never got above freezing during all three winter months. (David Ludlum) 1971 - An outbreak of tornadoes hit northeastern Louisiana and northern and central Mississippi. The tornadoes claimed 121 lives, including 110 in Mississippi. Three tornadoes accounted for 118 of the deaths. There are 1600 persons injured, 900 homes were destroyed or badly damaged, and total damage was 19 million dollars. (David Ludlum) 1971 - Elk City, OK, was buried under 36 inches of snow to establish a 24 hour snowfall record for the state. (David Ludlum) 1971: A tornado outbreak struck portions of the Lower Mississippi River Valley and the Southeastern United States on February 21–22nd. The two-day tornado outbreak produced at least 19 tornadoes, probably several more, primarily brief events in rural areas, and killed 123 people across three states. The tornadoes "virtually leveled" entire communities in the state of Mississippi. 1987 - Low pressure over central California produced gale force winds along the coast, and produced thunderstorms which pelted Stockton, Oakland and San Jose with small hail. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1988 - A storm tracking across southern Canada produced high winds in the north central U.S., with gusted to 90 mph reported at Boulder CO. The high winds snapped trees and power lines, and ripped shingles off roofs. The Kentucky Fried Chicken Bucket was blown off their store in Havre MT. An eighteen foot fiberglass bear was blown off its stand along a store front in west Cody WY, and sailed east into downtown Cody before the owners were able to transport their wandering bear back home in a horse trailer. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1989 - Thunderstorms developing during the morning hours spread severe weather across Georgia and the Carolinas. Strong thunderstorm winds caused one death and thirteen injuries in North Carolina, and another four injuries in South Carolina. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1990 - Overnight thunderstorms produced heavy rain in central Texas. Rainfall totals ranged up to 2.80 inches at Camp Verde, with 2.20 inches reported at Leakey. Thunderstorms early in the day produced high winds in southern Texas, with wind gusts to 60 mph reported at Alice. Daytime thunderstorms in eastern Texas drenched Rosenberg with four inches of rain. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 2013: An astonishing 515 cm (202.8" or almost 17') level of snow depth was measured at Sukayu Onsen, Aomori on Honshu Island in Japan, on February 21, 2013, the deepest snow measured at an official weather site in Japan records. (Last Updated in 2020).

36 so far chilly, breezy. Dry weekend warmup Sunday.

So close yet so far away - waving

Cooler/cold look with trough into the east to close the month and start of next - some stronger cold nearby as well in this timeframe.

Cold period 2/17 NYC: 36 / 26 (-5) LGA: 38 / 27 (-4) EWR: 38 / 27 (-3) JFK: 39 / 29 (-1) ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 2/18 JFK: 32 / 22 (-8) EWR: 30 / 20 (-11) NYC: 27/19 (-13) LGA: 28 / 20 (-13) -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

1979 Feb 17 - 19 Presidents Day Storm (Blizzard) https://vlab.noaa.gov/web/nws-heritage/-/unpredictable-the-president-s-day-storm-of-1979

NYC Feb 19, 1972 : 5.2 inches of snowfall 1979: 12.2 inches of snowfall (PDI Blizzard)

Records: Highs: EWR: 69 (2017) NYC: 66 (1997) LGA: 66 (2017) JFK: 68 (2017) Lows: EWR: 1 (1936) NYC: 1 (1936) LGA: 9 (2015) JFK: 9 (2015) Historical: 1884 - Severe thunderstorms spawned sixty tornadoes in the southeastern U.S., killing more than 420 persons and causing three million dollars damage. Georgia and the Carolinas hardest were hit in the tornado outbreak. (David Ludlum) 1888 - A tornado struck Mount Vernon IL. The tornado killed sixteen persons along its 62 mile path. (David Ludlum) 1888: Severe thunderstorms over southern Illinois spawned a violent tornado in Jefferson County and devastated the southeast half of Mount Vernon. The tornado killed 24 people, injured 80 others, and destroyed or damaged 300 homes and 50 businesses. In addition, overturned wood stoves ignited many fires in the wreckage. The tornado currently stands as the 9th deadliest Illinois tornado on record and was one of the first disasters to which the American Red Cross responded. 1954 - High winds across the southern half of the Great Plains, gusting to 85 mph, caused the worst duststorms since the 1930s. Graders were needed in places to clear fence high dirt drifts. (The Weather Channel) 1987 - A winter storm over the southern and central Rockies produced 28 inches of snow at Echo Lake CO, and two feet of snow at Gascon NM and Los Alamos NM. Mora County NM was declared a disaster area following the storm. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1988 - Showers and thunderstorms in the southeastern U.S. drenched Valdosta GA with more than five inches of rain, and the 24 hour rainfall total of 7.10 inches at Apalachicola FL more than doubled their previous 24 hour record for February. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1989 - An upper level weather disturbance brought heavy snow to parts of Nebraska, with six inches reported at Loup City and Surprise. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1990 - A moist Pacific storm worked its way into New Mexico and southern Colorado. Up to 36 inches of snow blanketed the Wolf Creek and Red Mountain passes of southwest Colorado, and up to 15 inches of snow was reported around Trinidad. In New Mexico, the eastern slopes of the Sangre de Cristo Mountains were blanketed with 9 to 28 inches of snow, and 50 to 60 mph wind gusts were reported from Taos to Albuquerque. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 2011 - Strong winds reaching as high as 40 mph with gusts to 53 mph topple the 48 year old National Christmas tree. The 42 foot tall Colorado blue spruce sat just south of the White House on the Ellipse. It was transplanted there from York, Pennsylvania in 1978. The Weather Doctor

19 / 1 off a low of 13. At or near freezing as the cold continues. Mainly dry next 4- 5 days. The once potential major snowstorm is staying well south and perhaps a period of snow flurries or showers is possible. Moderation by the weekend and into early next week. Cold does seem to be forecast to reload and remain nearby after any moderation as we move into the close of the month and start of next. Perhaps some late inning snow awaits before a meaningful change in the pattern to warmer.

Temps firgid into the N Plains and GL

Cold period 2/17 NYC: 36 / 26 (-5) LGA: 38 / 27 (-4) EWR: 38 / 27 (-3) JFK: 39 / 29 (-1)

Records: Highs: EWR: 71 (2011) NYC: 68 (1981) LGA: 67 (2011) JFK: 67 (2011) Lows: EWR: -1 (1979) NYC: 0 (1979) LGA: 0 (1979) JFK: 2 (1979) Historical: 1899 - While much of the central and eastern U.S. was recovering from the most severe cold wave of modern history, the temperature at San Francisco soared to 80 degrees to establish a record for month of February. (David Ludlum) 1959 - Some of the higher elevations of California were in the midst of a five day storm which produced 189 inches of snow, a single storm record for North America. (13th-19th) (David Ludlum) 1987 - A small but intense low pressure system combined with northerly upslope winds to produce eight inches of snow in five hours at Meeteetsie WY, located southeast of Cody. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1988 - Thunderstorms soaked the Central Gulf Coast Region with heavy rain. Totals in southern Louisiana ranged up to 8.50 inches near the town of Ridge, with 6.55 inches at Plaguemine. Thunderstorms in northern Florida drenched Apalachicola with 5.41 inches of rain in 24 hours, and produced wind gusts to 75 mph at Mayo. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1989 - Low pressure off the coast of North Carolina brought freezing rain and heavy snow to Virginia and the Carolinas. Snowfall totals in Virginia ranged up to 18 inches at Franklin. Freezing rain reached a thickness of two inches around Charlotte NC. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1990 - An intense but slow moving Pacific storm worked its way across Utah over a two day period. The storm blanketed the valleys with 4 to 12 inches of snow, and produced up to 42 inches of snow in the mountains. Heavy snow also fell across northern Arizona. Williams received 22 inches of snow, and 12 inches was reported along the south rim of the Grand Canyon. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1992: A thunderstorm spawned a powerful F4 tornado for so far north for the time of the year in southern Van Wert County in Ohio. The tornado touched down just west of US Route 127 and traveled northeastward for about 3 miles. One house was completely leveled, and nine others experienced severe damage. Six people were injured.

21 / 1 off a low of 17. Coldest day since Jan 23rd and looks to be coldest of the week and perhaps till next winter? Below freezing and lows back into the teens and near single digits. Overall cold and drier this week (swing and a miss on the potential bigger storm but that was becoming more apparent by Sat night). Moderation by the coming weekend and to close the month or 21 - 25th. Does looks to be a bit of a back and forth and more cold to close the month and perhaps open next month. next shot at meaningful precip looks to be in the 27 - Mar 3 period.