SACRUS

Miller s Maybe this is a C but i was leaning B

down as low as 28 into nyc mainly hovering 29ish

UKMET Snow

yup case in point if the gfs was off with this band by 25 - 30 miles - major implications - the storm will do what its gonan and wants to do - no model especially global will hone in in this range with the banding which are paramount in these coastals

would rely more on hrrr/rap / nam 3k and rrfs and radar later with the deform band - GFS keeps the heaviest s and east of NYC

Last WPC update QPF for this storm

The RRFS which is set to replace NAM/ HRRR beefed up / its snow alogrithm is odd QPF Snow ratio undetermined

Thats through 3am more to come , maybe half way or more

I added my notes and experience with these miller b type storms systems into cpgt to summarize it: Miller-B storms are defined by a late coastal transfer, where a secondary low forms near the Delmarva and rapidly takes over from the inland primary, setting the stage for sharp impact gradients. The heaviest snow almost always occurs in the deformation band, where strong frontogenesis and mid-level forcing lock in for several hours, producing rates that far exceed model averages. Banding typically pivots northwest late, meaning early offshore or marginal solutions can still evolve into significant accumulations closer to the coast. Cutoffs are sharper than in Miller-A storms, with 20–30 miles often separating warning-level snow from minor accumulations or mixing. Winners are determined by band residence time, not storm totals—locations under a persistent band can double surrounding amounts. Losers are often directly south or east of the main band, where dry slotting, subsidence, or warm air intrusion sharply reduces snow despite proximity to the low. Small timing errors have outsized impacts, as a 6–12 hour difference in transfer or band pivot can completely flip outcomes for places like CNJ and NYC. Thermals and coastal fronts dictate who stays snow, with heavy rates often overcoming marginal surface temperatures in the core of the deformation zone. The biggest totals usually exceed early forecasts, because mesoscale banding intensity and persistence are rarely fully captured until the storm is underway.

THis is when (4PM) most goto snow and it should start coming down and accumulating on cars/etc as temps cool and intensity picks up

Coldest temps i see on guidance for NYC at height of the storm around 3AM 29 hours before and after

This is whats lost to rain/mix lesser rates which the nams accounted for

It'll be all about the banding

2/22 NAM 3k

2/22 12z NAM

It was a top 40 *(most recent)

I would be riding the radar / obs and as far as guidance: From past storms and other general feedback Weighting (rule of thumb inside 6 hours): HREF + HRRR (top tier) → RAP (thermals/p-type) → NAM 3km (structure/gradients)

Deformation banding will gift some with huge totals and rob others - always the case its not such a uniform distribution as the globals and other models show. QPF in general will be 1-1.4 aread wide ( 8-14 or so) and under those heaviest bands/banding up to and exceeding 2-2.5 LE and that's where the >18-24 inches totals in those areas the target has been depicted in the Ocean - Monmouth cty and LI/SNE areas.

NYC (Central Park) Snowstorms (Top 40 like the old radio countdowns) we may have a new smash hit coming in the top 15 Largest → Smallest Jan 22–24, 2016 – 27.5" Feb 11–12, 2006 – 26.9" Dec 26–27, 1947 – 26.4" Feb 25–27, 2010 – 20.9" Jan 7–8, 1996 – 20.2" Dec 26–27, 2010 – 20.0" Feb 16–17, 2003 – 19.8" Jan 26–27, 2011 – 19.0" Mar 7–8, 1941 – 18.1" Feb 5–7, 1978 – 17.7" Feb 11–12, 1983 – 17.6" Feb 3–4, 1961 – 17.4" Jan 31–Feb 3, 2021 – 17.4" Dec 19–20, 1948 – 16.0" Feb 9–10, 1969 – 15.3" Dec 11–12, 1960 – 15.2" Mar 3–4, 1960 – 14.5" Dec 5–7, 2003 – 14.0" Jan 22–23, 2005 – 13.8" Dec 21–22, 1959 – 13.7" Jan 19–20, 1978 – 13.6" Jan 23–24, 1935 – 13.0" Feb 11, 1994 – 12.8" Feb 19, 1979 – 12.7" Jan 12–13, 1964 – 12.5" Feb 7, 1967 – 12.5" Feb 13–14, 2014 – 12.5" Dec 30, 2000 – 12.0" Mar 20–21, 1958 – 11.8" Mar 18–19, 1956 – 11.6" Jan 21–22, 2014 – 11.5" Feb 8–9, 2013 – 11.4" Jan 25–26, 2026 – 11.4" Dec 26, 1933 – 11.2" Dec 19–20, 2009 – 10.9" Feb 4, 1995 – 10.8" Feb 20–21, 1947 – 10.7" Feb 16–17, 1996 – 10.7" Mar 13–14, 1993 – 10.6" Feb 11, 1933 – 10.0" Feb 10, 2010 – 10.0"

Combine the threads - Storm Discussion should include obs. Just my 2 cents 36/36

2/22 00z Summary Total QPF NYC / Total 10:1 Snow NYC SREF mean: 2.2 / 21 NAM: 2.8 / 27.5 NAM 3k: 2.0 / 19.5 ICON: 1.4 / 13.5 RGEM: 1.3 / 13.3 GFS: 1.6 / 16.7 GFS AI AIGFS: 1.4 / 13.6 GGEM: 1.5 / 13.8 GEFS: 1.7 / 17 UKMET: 1.2 / 11 EURO AI AIFS: 1.3 / 12.7 EURO: 1.4 / 12.8 Total QPF (NYC): 1.65 inches Total Snow (10:1, NYC): 16.0 inches