Casualbrain
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Everything posted by Casualbrain
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It's a thing of beauty...
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I start trusting the short-term operational models 48 hours before an event - but the art of forecasting is in comparing the numerical models/ensemble models, soundings (actual balloon launches), and historical events to obtain your best guess. 24 hours out is usually a "lock" with the models as there is more real/actual atmospheric data and the cone of uncertainty narrows considerably. That said ALL models have busted at one time or another.
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Let's hope it doesn't happen - but things are looking grim.
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I'm going to be in the Canyon Lake area over Christmas - hoping it's not too cold so I can go water skiing
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Cool roanoke snow photo by a local We got 18.5 at my place.
