CaryWx
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Everything posted by CaryWx
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This is somewhat transient though. By mid week more seasonable/slightly-below temps return I believe. More longer duration killer cold comes in the last week of the month if I'm reading things correctly.
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Thanks Bob. Yes our local TV mets were mentioning earlier the GFS and Euro see the same thing but as you had mentioned earlier somewhere it was just timing that was off. Euro was lagging I believe. This creates more certainty when both of the top LR models see the same thing but just maybe not exactly the same time alignment.
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My guess is until we get closer (or through next weekend) the operational models will continue to bounce around. They do not yet have a good handle on the new 'colder' pattern that is supposed to emerge beginning sometime next week.
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Thanks for dropping in Glad things are finally turning for you guys in the MA forum as well Bob. Checking in there from time to time over the last few weeks was beginning to wonder if someone was going to need to medicate that thread. The MA was getting the DT's from snow drought.
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WRAL's look for next Saturday night. Pretty sure this is the cold pressing down with copious amounts of precip.
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I don't know Widre. That's pretty hefty and would be interesting to see if it validates plus how long it stays at 1052 and not flex down in pressure rather quickly
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I really never worry too much about suppression of any duration. WAA and cold chasing moisture scenarios do us in more often then not.
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Taken from the MA forum, but I like the look for NC
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The GFS ensembles look like they have a stronger HP at 1040. That's stout if it verifies. Didn't most of the other guidance have it 1034-1038 or so?
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Where's that 850 line ajr refers to lining up?
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I like that high placement but not so much where the LP is edit: It's baggy though at 1017 so hopefully not too much WAA in my neck of the woods
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event trending away from anything in triangle. boo
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LP's coming in too far north. Needs to be hugging the GC.
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Looks like we got some players lining up in the tunnel.
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Has me on the edge like last time.
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Grit, The MJO could loop tightly right back inside the COD and pop out in phase 6 or 7 though right?
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Yes, may not be snow sign yet but I can open the fireplace again after mid month I think
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I think the 12z euro today becomes more critical about what might be happening
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It's difficult to read long lead 'potential' positives when it is now Jan 1st. So it sounds like we have virtually zero chances of a cold regime, let alone any snow before say MLK day right? Tough around here for the heart of winter.
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I can't believe the 2 week outlooks for most of north america east of the rockies right now considering we are heading into what should be the dead of winter.
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Some of those 384 global looks actually do have Egypt in the real cold. I thought you were kidding when you posted "Congrats Egypt..." or whatever it was last week.
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Not sure if this still holds but the NWS prediction of below normal temps and above normal precip. from Jan 7th thru 18th is still solid I would think.
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weeklies look great for our area
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We're pretty much on point here for the 26th based on what was modeled back on the 19th I believe.
