CaryWx

chaos huh? Yeah, seems the models never get this wrong very often.

What may I ask are you looking at?

12z GFS operational finding a storm next Sunday for NC. It's game on...for 6 more hrs!

At least until the 12z GFS comes out. That model is all over the place

Need to get a better boot in that kick

2 days of cold around the 15th per the 0z gfs. Then we re-warm. You can just about stick a folk in any decent snow potential in NC (outside the mts) for this winter imho

Be sure to drop some pre-emergent in there

18z gfs ops run never brings cold back but hey it's only one run

18z GFS ops run has it but icy look over NC

It's pathetic we are in prime climo at Jan 31st and for purposes of this thread it may as well be Jul 31st.

I'm seeing 2 events show up on LR gfs. One around the 13th and one on the 15th. Way out there though and may disappear and come back several times. [300hrs+ and all] This could morph into a single Valentine's Day storm eventually so I do see that timeframe with some potential if the models keep it up.

We may not be playing with an empty chamber just yet...

Forgetting averages, amounts, and odd storms in early Dec for the moment... Just looking at what time is left on the game clock for 2019 winter it is hard to see another storm right now. This pattern of cold, then warm, then rinse with rain, then repeat is not going to cut it. We seem to have another cold shot coming on deck late next week but that is still iffy, then we warm again, after that we get into post Feb 15th. Then we begin to live on a model and a prayer to beat the odds

18z gfs says winter comes back around the 7th

Thanks for responding. Guessing the outlook for the pac pattern changing is still up in the air

Grit, what happened here for this to go sour in the 11th hour? Just a couple days ago we were looking at least a better cold regime. Maybe not sustained but certainly better for next weekend. Now all that's changed.

What happened to the cold air next weekend? I'm not forecast to get below freezing even at night.

See my comments above. We begin to play from behind down here at that point

In my neck of the woods we CAN get decent snow until first few days in March but that is very rare almost freak-type in nature. My rule of thumb is Feb 15th or so because after that the runway gets exponentially short by the day. The dreaded "sun angle" actually does come into play. NOT because it inhibits snow storms but because any staying power for snow sticking and enduring on the ground becomes very difficult. After Feb 15th the radiational heat getting absorbed daily by the ground (especially asphalt) is high and not released as quickly in the shorter dark hours. Feb 15th sun angle is equal to that of Oct 15th, at least in terms of daylight hours I understand.

So help me understand what Larry is saying here. We are going to be basically chaotic with cold to warm to cold for next 10 days and then warm 11-15 days before all this settles into a favorable pattern for snow? That puts out to Feb 10th or so. Getting a little close to the end of the runway aren't we if this comes to pass...and I remain skeptical?

When you're down to JB it's getting tough

Also noticed the 06z GFS keeps cold in place until around 2/8 so week after next may not be so bad.