CaryWx

Don't believe it is as bad on the short range models and this is really not ideal range for GFS is it?

Definitely a drought zone in west-central NC on many of those panels

Looks to me like the NWS laid out their reasoning why what we have been seeing modeled (and discussing these last few days) is not all that accurate in TRUE forecasting on this event for the following reasons: (1.) Persistent above freezing surface temperatures that will help temper/melt the majority of the snowfall. The exception to the rule may be areas closer to the VA/NC border, however, these are the areas that will likely see far less QPF throughout the event (2.) 10:1 snow to liquid ratios are not likely in an event like this, expect closer to 3:1 at precipitation changeover onset, 5:1 toward the middle of the event, and perhaps ending in vicinity of 10:1 (3.) While the CAA process will be key in the original changeover, it will also become the ultimate limiting factor through the frozen ptype portion of the event. This will work to greatly reduce QPF from northwest to southeast in general. Oh yeah, they also mention a "cold initialized NAM"

I actually see this as good news

Regardless warm nose or not that's a sharp cut in southern Wake co. Either a lot of sleet or rain one. Hope it doesn't change much in next 36hrs.

great minds?

Thanks Grit. Looks like the broadcast mets are sticking with the globals. Guessing in another 24hrs (inside 60hrs) the NAM would suggest a better handle vs the globals maybe?

Is the NAM an outlier here folks? Also, does it tend to overdo the precip?

Agreed and will be interesting to see if the count tics up in next couple of runs. Hopefully not down that’s for sure

Is that an LP developing offshore as it exits the region though or is it a system moving through?

More validation in the form of continuity. A positive TREND Constructively, can you lose the big pic in your signature by any chance? It really hassles with the thread view?

Good step for the euro but be nice to also see the gfs come on board and euro sustain this in the 0z

yes 18z was better. will be interesting to see the 0z

The 12z GEFS mean doesn't look too bad.

Trending odds grit?

About 11 (~55%) members hit my general area. This looks like either a hit or a miss storm overall. Not much in between

Got any pics mack?

Why? Is the summer ahead projecting to be a scorcher? wet? dry?

Look at his facial expression. He's saying you can kiss this winter goodbye

The 0z euro mocks the gfs you know

If you get too much rain....row jimmy row!

Weenie run!---Don't read too much into this please

We've had a TRACE this year? Must have missed that. Guess I didn't chase the trace.

Not sure that will even make it into NC Ralphie