NorthShoreWx

A lot of places do better than ISP on average, although undeniably ISP has had some big storm jackpots in recent years.

I'm not taking issue with any of that. But I'm willing to bet that in 10 years whatever version exists of the American medium range model will be better than it is now. Which is why I think running the 240 - 384 hour op forecasts might be useful for future benchmarking. I don't use extended op runs from any of the current model suite for planning, although I sometimes enjoy the eye candy they print out.

When the model gets better. Some day it will. You could have said the same once upon a time about the LFM past 2 days.

If we don't run it, how will we know when it gets better?

Better than Smithwicks

Yeah, and the stouts are mostly munged with coffee and chocolate. I've had the Smuttynose. Like the 78 better.

I'll have to look and see if I can find it near home. Had it on draft in Woburn this evening.

For the record, Wormtown Blizzard of '78 is pretty good.

Interesting storm here. Normally the LE that we received would have been enough to get us easily into the 15 - 20" range, but the high winds and fractured snowflakes struggled to get past 12". If memory serves, there was also some graupel, but mostly I remember the wind. That was a great year for snow cover. The December snow dwindled down to 2" by 1/7, but then replenished and we had constant snow cover of at least 2" until February 28, with 10" or more from January 12 to February 17.

That's cool, thanks! Using that data, 30-year averages for ISP: 5/1/1970- 4/30/1999 - 24.2" 5/1/1980- 4/30/2009 - 25.2" 5/1/1990 - 4/30/2019 - 32.5" Additional: 70s (5/1/69 - 4/30/79) - 26.9" 80s - 22.8" 90s - 22.9" 00s - 29.8" 10s - 40.1" 5/1/1999 - 4/30/22 (2000's) - 35.8" Prior to 2000 (36 years) - 25.7" POR (59 years) - 29.7"

Wind ("blow-off") may be part of that, but very likely there are legit reasons related to water temps, humidity and perhaps other aspects of the micro-climate at BDR. Snow may not accumulate as efficiently on that little spit, especially in marginal temps. On the north shore here, I've seen snow melting on the water side of the boardwalk and accumulating on the "inland" side of the boardwalk (Sunken Meadow). I don't doubt that BDR has made some measuring mistakes over the years (much of the ISP snowfall history before 2004 is bad), but it isn't unreasonable that its long term averages are lower than places very close by. I wonder if that is the same problem with the old LI Coop at Strongs Neck (aka Setauket Strong) which has over time produced absurdly low averages compared to nearby areas on the north shore. I used to think the observer(s) just didn't care that much about snowfall, but there may be some legitimacy to it. Some places just aren't good for collecting local snowfall climo. Side note, local average annual snowfall here (Smithtown) 1995-6 through 2020-21 was 38.8" (38.5" at Upton). Before that the long term average was probably around the low 30's although the 1970s (27.2" at Upton) and 80s (23.9" at Upton) were lower. I didn't add in 2021-22 yet, but Upton had 30.8" and Smithtown 36.2" so you can shave a tenth or 2 off of the recent averages. Like the other guy said, we're not going keep increasing snowfall like over the past couple of decades. Average snowfall in the future could fall back to previous levels (or worse), but the higher snowfall regime has been persistent for a long time despite warmer winters on average. Sources: http://www.northshorewx.com/ClimateData/SmithtownDailySnowfall.pdf https://www.bnl.gov/weather/4cast/monthlysnowfall.htm

NJ DEP used to do scientific estimates of bear population: "The 2020 count shows that the bear population doubled from the 1,522 counted in 2018, the last year a bear hunt was allowed on state-owned lands". After 2020 the DEP was not allowed to conduct a count. The Sierra club position that you mentioned seems subjective and not based on any science. Agree that poor trash management is a problem. Disagree with the idea that humans don't belong in the wilderness.

My last a/c day was in September, but still haven't turned the heat on. Old record latest for turning our heat on was Nov 2012. I don't think that even counts as number 2 (no power after Sandy until just before the snowstorm) but we still beat it this year. Looks like we'll have to capitulate to the season by Monday. With this winters heating oil prices, wear a sweater if you come to visit. Briefly touched 71 here today, but was steady around 70 for several hours. 0.90" rain last night.

Watched Weird Al on Roku Friday night. The Snowman been busy rolling out the barrel: https://www.soundtrack.net/album/weird-the-al-yankovic-story/

0.78" rain here as of 1PM and we've had some good downpours since. Total for October through 1PM 6.07". Had 4.36" in September, 2.89" in August, 2.53" in July and 3.44" in June. It was "dry-ish" over the summer, but really not very droughty IMBY. I know the south shore was a different story.

No other reports here and nothing on the USGS site. It must have been a nearby truck or something. Windows rattled a lot for several seconds. My wife noticed it too and she was in her car in the garage at that moment.

I guess there was no ob from ISP that day. I guess

Did we just have an earthquake?

34° in Smithtown Thursday morning. Was 35° Wednesday morning. Our growing season continues, at least on paper. Veggie garden is surviving, not really growing anymore, but still stuff to harvest.

Feb 1899. I'd bet the area where JFK now stands was colder than Tallahassee in Feb 1899, and probably colder than -2 other times too, although not recently. I wonder how cold it got around JFK in February 1934, among other dates.

Didn't get power back until 10:30 this morning. 1.11" rainfall last night brings September total in North Smithtown to 3.72"

Close lightning strike behind the house and we lost power instantly. Maybe a transformer back in the woods or a limb on the power line. Looks like a dark night ahead. Same old same old. We're used to it

It's a common phenomenon. Lake front areas downwind of Erie and Ontario have the longest growing seasons in western and central NY.

Three (calendar) days in a row here with a minimum of 50. We did not get below 50. Gonna have an extended growing season with sound temps still around 70. Only chance for frost will be with light south wind on backside of a cold high allowing the north shore to decouple before the humidity starts to rise. Needs pretty good timing in early fall here. Otherwise, a light northerly wind is a warm wind direction close to the sound at this time of year and it keeps blowing while a couple of miles south it can go calm.

Very sad to hear that. That's a big lake; theoretically part of NYC's reservoir system.