NorthShoreWx
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Everything posted by NorthShoreWx
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1.2" new on the board in Smithtown as of noon. Snow falling at varying rates accumulated 1/2" in the past hour. Current temperature (12:15pm) is 27.6° with very light snow falling.
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0.7" new as of 11am. Pure fluff! Short range models last night hinted at the possibility of this burst along the north shore. I looked at the "max" snow map on HRRR just for giggles and it showed a max right where the decent snows along the north shore have been this morning. I didn't place much stock in the map totals, but the relative placement of them can be interesting. 28° with moderate snow now at 11:30. We're close to that first inch.
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The snow maps will be a piece of it if I ever finish them. The rest is subjective since those statistics do not exist.
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I am unaware of any supporting data for that conclusion.
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I dated a girl from Massapequa (now my wife) and the commute up and down 135 was very interesting during borderline events. I think those Syosset stats are pretty accurate but they are a product of my misspent youth. If you compare them to BNL there are some obvious differences, but I also find that to be true with Smithtown and BNL certain years. We're about 18 miles from OKX and Syosset is twice that. I've long tried to put my finger on a sweet spot, but it's difficult. Part of the difficulty is the data just isn't there to make an objective conclusion. Best guess is along the north shore between Huntington, or maybe even NE Nassau and Rocky Point. In most years, the bullseye is somewhere in that area, but in exceptions it can be anywhere; south shore, east end, even Queens. OKX/BNL is the snowiest spot with a long term reliable record on the island, but it's the only such record anywhere near the north shore and I suspect the elusive sweet spot averages 2 or 3 inches more snowfall than BNL. In fact that may be the case in much of the north shore region to the west of there. I took a stab at this almost 20 years ago, but life has interfered with that project: https://www.northshorewx.com/lisnowfallpatterns.html PS one of these years I'll redo the website and make it more phone friendly (and easier for me to update)
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Right now the winds are light West to Southwest on the island, so we are more insulated from both the sound and the ocean and radiating relatively well, which explains the rapid drop heading north on the Sag earlier. Happens all the time...we often get our coldest nights after loosing the northerly component to the wind 1 day after KFOK gets their coldest nights.
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Most of the winters in the first half of the 80s had at least 1 good month, mostly in January and the Januarys were cold so the snow stuck around for a bit. Here are snowfall stats from Syosset that include the early 80's. Note that even then March was running snowier than December: https://www.northshorewx.com/ClimateData/SyossetSnowfall1974-1985.pdf
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I was playing down the ice accumulations here as trivial, but when the sun hit it this afternoon and some of the ice started falling from the trees it looked like about 1/8". It looked nice with the deep blue sky and the sun glinting off the icy branches. The Sound is still on the warm side. We only got down to 18 last night; even Manhattan got down to 17. Its cooling off though as we had no trouble staying below freezing yesterday with the NE wind. Temp is colder now than this morning (15.9° atm). Met some friends for dinner in Massapequa tonight and had fun on the ride home watching the temperature on the car thermometer drop from 24 at the Southern State / Sagtikos junction down to 19 at the 25A end of the Sunken Meadow (about 10 miles). Once we get the Sound temps solidly into the 30s, it isn't a problem any more.
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Maybe related to today's weather, we've lost power again. More likely someone looked cross-eyed at a transmission line. It's to be expected; it's not like we live in Yemen.
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I remember hearing on AM radio shortly after 5pm that it was raining in NYC. My disappointment was muted as I looked out the window at the raging snowstorm that dropped about 15" on Stowe. I learned that day that Vermont is a much better place for clippers than southern NY. EDIT: I think you're right. The clipper I am thinking of might have been on the 15th.
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2.3" snow total in Smithtown. 0.52" liquid equivalent, all frozen or freezing. Max T was 31.6⁰
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That feature (warm layer) has been consistent on the NAM over several model runs. The NAM surface temperatures bounced around a bit, which was significant.
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Meanwhile, snow has changed to freezing rain all the way into southern Maine. Temp is down to 29.6° here as of 4pm. Today's max was 31.6° at 3:15pm (45 minutes ago). Wind has picked up and droplets are now hitting the windows on the west side of the house instead of on the east side.
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Don't need a model to know that. I've seen this situation many times where snow ends as rain but the temperatures fail to budge above freezing and I don't recall it ever not ending as a period of snow. Whether its a coating on the ice or another inch, it's inevitable.
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NAM should have stuck to its guns. It was showing us not getting above freezing (or barely getting above freezing) in yesterdays runs before it lost the plot overnight. As for my 4", not looking good. 31.2° here with some occasional light freezing rain. Been stuck between 31.1° and a max of 31.4° for a few hours. Not the most efficient ice accretions, but its telling that the snow in the trees hasn't budged after several hours of rain.
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Still 31 here with freezing rain. There is some ice accretion on branches, but some is running off. I think if a degree colder there'd be a lot more ice. The snow is actually softening. It stuck easily to the pavement at first but other than a cold surface from yesterdays temperatures which stayed in the 20's, the ground is not frozen. Some of that heat appears to be coming back to the surface. FYI, We were at 2000'+ in the Catskills on Sunday doing some shelter building drills and although there was several inches of snow on the ground, the ground was still not frozen. That's nuts for the Catskills in mid January. We were near the 2nd Colgate Lake parking area for those familiar with the area.
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This might be helpful for some people: https://nsidc.org/learn/cryosphere-glossary/whiteout
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Plow made a few passes here in the past hour. They only salted overnight. 31° FZR
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That's bright banding from mixed precip PVD and points south and east.
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As of midnight, 0.5" snowfall. Temperature is 25. Pretty, but painfully light snow continues. Accumulating 1 or 2 tenths of an inch per hour. To put that in perspective, the liquid equivalent of this light fluff is probably a trace per hour.
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25⁰ with light snow in N Smithtown. Only about a quarter inch on the ground, but it's covering everything and looks nice. The max temp this afternoon briefly touched 29 and the snow began covering the street from the first flake.
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Suddenly it's showing 1"+ qpf for the twin forks. Not inspiring to see that doubled at the last minute.
