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Recon says no major... Yet, but close

Looks like the other way around (EC-AIFS has always been in the GFS camp, BTW), 18zGFS has mostly conceded into a turn towards the SW into the BoC. It basically decouples it first, before the LLC turns to the SW. Euro weakens it, but not fully decouples. Now, looking at the current trends, I don't buy the GFS decapitating Rafael in 36 hours or so, as a matter of fact, we are probably looking at a bounce back to major status for the next advisory. If it can walk the fine line around the shear boundary, south of 25N, then intensity could be much higher than forecasted.

Shear is weakening, and Rafael is showing a more symmetrical/round shape on satellite, also an eye is clearing out. Latest recon confirms FL winds around 106kts, we'll see about central pressure, but I'm guessing a down trend will shortly begin, especially after dry air gets mixed out through the strong convection going on right now.

It looks like we are in the final legs of the ERC, with the old eyewall coalescing into the new one. Recon still shows a bit of a double wind maxima, but will probably disappear soon

Radar shows clear ERC going on now. It appears that it might be a matter of a few hours before the inner eyewall collapses. https://bmcnoldy.earth.miami.edu/tropics/rafael24/Rafael_5Nov24_Cayman.mp4

TCs west of 90W are a rare sight in November. If it keeps hurricane status, it would be a first.

I'll leave this out here and back away slowly...

The step left that many models have shown (probably regarding core organization) appears to be happening now, according to the latest recon fix. Models also show the more NW motion resuming in a few hours. Also, shear is abating according to the latesr shear analysis and is probably the most favorable it has been since the Lesser Antilles

Lady is stripping off its clothes. Latest fix is WSW of the previous one

About to splash into the GoM in the next hour or so. It's moving right of the forecasted track.

Yeah, that Beryl looks photogenic on MW, surprisingly so, much better than any MW since the Lesser Antilles

Recon's extrapolated pressure is 961.9mb. I expect the dropsonde to show values a few mb above that, but still, that would probably be a 8-10mb drop between recon penetrations.

Shear has once again increased according to UWisc CIMSS analysis. That's the cue for the eye clouding over.

Latest MW

Beryl has been straddling the neutral shear threshold (20kts) her whole trek over the Caribbean. Yesterday, it crossed it into 25+kts of shear, and earlier today it went back to ~20kts. While S of Jamaica After Jamaica Right now