bigtenfan
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Everything posted by bigtenfan
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Big difference in the initial NHC projected track of the wave about to come off of Africa. It looks to have gone from a potential Caribbean cruiser to a potential fish storm.
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No complaints from this Palm Beach County homeowner
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It is not just TC genesis that the models are having trouble with. I think that their accuracy on winter storms has declined as well. Long range forecasting while never great has almost gone totally off the rails. If i had to take a guess I would say that the models are not yet skilled enough to properly handle the pace of global warming. Many of the analogs that are being used are based on a cooler planet overall than we have now.
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Thanks so much for your response
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It does look like there is going to be a lot of activity in the next 2 weeks plus. The question is where they end up going. To my untrained eye based on the Maritime High it would appear that any threat to the EC would be from the Carolinas or Mid Atlantic northward. Is my thinking correct on that?
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Thanks so much
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Just out of curiosity. Where does the season stand ACE wise compared to where it should be on August 30th? Thanks in advance
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Meantime it is poof on the 12z GFS run. Hence the folly of 15 day maps.
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Still a long way off but it looks like the substantial majority of the ensembls look to be north of Florida
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Given how far East most of the plots are I would say Carolinas more so than Florida. Especially South Florida
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With all of the focus on Laura and TD 14 are there any early thoughts on the next wave to leave Africa?
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I see it as a situation of buying time. While the models are certainly not the be all to end all, the fact that they now go out to Aug 31 with really nothing in the MDR means to me that if it verifies we will have gotten through the first 25% of peak season without any majors. I know that it can change on a dime but as a Palm Beach County property owner I am just taking it model run by model run.
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Hey: Philly could get 300% of last years total and still end up with less than an inch for the season.
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I will never forget when he was in Philly he was the first to sniff out the blizzard of 1996 over a week in advance.
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Have to hand it to Isotherm. While many others( not all by any means) were honking for a great winter Isotherm looks to have hit this winter right on the nose despite how unpopular of an opinion it was back in November when he called it.
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I have always wondered what would have happened if the Eagles Cowboys play off game that was played in Dallas on the day of the Jan 1996 blizzard was played in Philly instead.
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Vendor, Blog and TV Channel Forecasts Thread Part 2
bigtenfan replied to Rjay's topic in New York City Metro
Very bullish forecast to say the least. Even more so than JB -
According to the accu weather 90 day forecast we(Trenton) get to July 10 without a 90 degree day. The highest that I saw was 85 on June 30. LOL
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I will never forget Larry Cosrove being the first to see the 1996 blizzard a week ahead of time when he was on channel 17.
