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bigtenfan

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Everything posted by bigtenfan

  1. bigtenfan
    Thanks so much
  2. bigtenfan
    What is the record for ACE for a single storm in the Atlantic Basin?
  3. bigtenfan
    Vine Street A major east west road through the center of phila https://www.instagram.com/p/CTUsaQwL98Q/?utm_source=ig_embed&ig_rid=7419923e-5480-4246-b83e-6d4601465b35
  4. bigtenfan
    I have to believe that the pumps have their own generators
  5. bigtenfan
    Looks like surprisingly few head for Florida
  6. bigtenfan
    Nice area. Many years ago I hiked up tp the site of a WW2 B17 crash on Crown Point( 10800ft). The snow was still there in late June.
  7. bigtenfan
    After a look at the 6Z GFS I am surprised how quiet this sub forum is.
  8. bigtenfan
    When is the last time it was several degrees warmer in Phila than Boca Raton FL on Christmas morning?
  9. bigtenfan
    Nothing like having a 995 low in a very good spot and having the 540 line north of Quebec City.
  10. bigtenfan
    I have a flight out of FLL tomorrow at 10.45am What are my chances?
  11. bigtenfan
    More like a moderate ts at worst. 10m winds in the 30 to 40 kt range. Pressure in the mid to high 980s
  12. bigtenfan
    As a homeowner in Boca Raton I would love to see the season be over but the reality is that we are not even into October yet and many of these late season home brew storms develop quickly and are not foreseen by the global models. Bottom line: You may be right and I certainly hope that you are but it is WAY too early to take any victory laps.
  13. bigtenfan
    Agree about MDR season possibly being about over( although one never knows) but out of curiosity with W Carib season about to start what makes you say that that the Gulf may be done for the year? I think that the gulf is very vulnerable during W Carib season.
  14. bigtenfan
    Does anybody know if the NWS has a database of lightning strikes containing the exact day . time and location of lightning strikes? thank you in advance.
  15. bigtenfan
    I was just comparing on an apples to apples basis the same scribbled blob from the previous update. The little north curve can make a major difference downstream.
  16. bigtenfan
    Big difference in the initial NHC projected track of the wave about to come off of Africa. It looks to have gone from a potential Caribbean cruiser to a potential fish storm.
  17. bigtenfan
    No complaints from this Palm Beach County homeowner
  18. bigtenfan
    It is not just TC genesis that the models are having trouble with. I think that their accuracy on winter storms has declined as well. Long range forecasting while never great has almost gone totally off the rails. If i had to take a guess I would say that the models are not yet skilled enough to properly handle the pace of global warming. Many of the analogs that are being used are based on a cooler planet overall than we have now.
  19. bigtenfan
    Thanks so much for your response
  20. bigtenfan
    It does look like there is going to be a lot of activity in the next 2 weeks plus. The question is where they end up going. To my untrained eye based on the Maritime High it would appear that any threat to the EC would be from the Carolinas or Mid Atlantic northward. Is my thinking correct on that?
  21. bigtenfan
    Thanks so much
  22. bigtenfan
    Just out of curiosity. Where does the season stand ACE wise compared to where it should be on August 30th? Thanks in advance
  23. bigtenfan
    Meantime it is poof on the 12z GFS run. Hence the folly of 15 day maps.
  24. bigtenfan
    Still a long way off but it looks like the substantial majority of the ensembls look to be north of Florida
  25. bigtenfan
    Given how far East most of the plots are I would say Carolinas more so than Florida. Especially South Florida
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