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bigtenfan

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Everything posted by bigtenfan

  1. bigtenfan
    Question: With the greatest abnormalities in SST so far east would that increase the chances of early recurves? My understanding is that storms will lift poleward as they get stronger especially east of the islands.
  2. bigtenfan
    Perfect for Phila Eagles fans that soon after the Super Bowl. Kind of gives a new meaning to the term Philly Special.
  3. bigtenfan
    Now you have done it. Started a thread. The kiss of death.
  4. bigtenfan
    Glad that I can help
  5. bigtenfan
    Just flew in to West Palm Beach. It was one of the most turbulent descents that I have ever experienced and I fly about 25 times a year.
  6. bigtenfan
    Would the exiting Lee leave a weakness allowing that storm to safely recurve?
  7. bigtenfan
    It does bear watching although so far anyway the GFS looks to be alone in the track when you look at the 240 hour position on the EPS and CMC vs the GFS. Also neither the GEFS or the EPS give much support to bringing it that close the the EC
  8. bigtenfan
    Looking somewhat further ahead: Some of this morning long range guidance has storm this doing a full loop once off shore and circling around to be a threat to the SE coast of Florida. Are the steering currents that crazy for that to be a reasonable possibility?
  9. bigtenfan
    If the wave is already out there and if it was considered even a lower level threat to the islands/FL/SEUS I would think that the NHC would have at least a 20% Lemon for development over the next 7 days. If the sheer isn't there Is it the dry air that is preventing serious development?
  10. bigtenfan
    The 16 day GFS show a parade of waves leaving Africa but none of them make it past the middle of the MDR.
  11. bigtenfan
    Florida is notably not included in even a 5% chance. I hope that it is right.
  12. bigtenfan
    I flew to Phila out of Fort Lauderdale today. On ascent the Sahara dust was very apparent.
  13. bigtenfan
    Absolutely The self insure decision was strictly a business decision weighing the cost of wind insurance plus the deductible vs my worst case loss frim a cane.
  14. bigtenfan
    As a S FL resident who is self insuring for wind damage I hope that he is right. I have always had a lot of respect for LC. When i lived in Philadelphia in the 1990s he was the first TV Met to sniff out the 30 inch Blizzard of 1996 a full week in advance( with mid 1990s technology!)
  15. bigtenfan
    Did the fact that was worst at the airport itself have anything to do with heat generated from all of the jet engines?
  16. bigtenfan
    I am not sure that I am putting this in the correct forum. Do any Mets on the board have a scientific explanation as to the cause of the biggest single day rainfall in Florida history? I almost had a very personal stake in this as my wife's flight out of FLL got off the ground an hour before they stopped all flights in and out. She said that the ascent was very turbulent. I have seen very little discussion of what was truly a history making event. Thanks in advance
  17. bigtenfan
    Back to weather banter. It would be funny if DKs 2 inch prediction for DC turns out to be right. It would be even funnier if he overestimated.
  18. bigtenfan
    Just out of curiosity does anyone have an idea of how cold the airmass would have gotten in perfect nighttime conditions? IE deep layer of snow on the ground, absolute calm winds
  19. bigtenfan
    Thanks so much for the quick answer
  20. bigtenfan
    At what point does this projected pattern stop being a question of Lucy picking up the football and becomes a realistic probability? Inside 10 days? 8 days? 5days?
  21. bigtenfan
    Drove from Exton to Malvern to Paoli. Light snow the entire way. Pretty to look at in the headlights.
  22. bigtenfan
    Question for the experts on the board. In the Hurricane watch Statement the NHC mentions the possibility of 80 MPH gusts all the way down to Hallandale Beach. Looking at Weather.US wind gust maps of 5 different models for southern PBC I see nothing higher than the high 40s as gusts. Presumably sustained would be lower. Am I missing something or is the NHC just being extra cautious because of what happened with Ian? Thanks in advance
  23. bigtenfan
    So how far further south does that translate to at landfall? Vero Beach area? That would still make it a N outlier.
  24. bigtenfan
    Classic example of the old saying that even in a lesser year all you need is one storm to make it memorable.
  25. bigtenfan
    That map is for tropical storm winds and depending on the exact detail shows the landfall area at a 50 to 80 percent chance of TS winds I am sure that the 50 and 64 kt wind maps showed even a lesser chance I am sure that map was based on the GFS which failed miserably in this storm at the cost of many many lives
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