bigtenfan

I don't know about that. The GFS looks to have backed off at 12z from its aggressive 6Z look. The CMC looks about the same. The Icon has nothing. The EC at 0Z had nothing through 240h and the EPS had very little through 360 for a time period going into the peak season. This is NOT a season cancel response. As I mentioned in a previous post I am just taking it one day at a time with every day showing no major threats a day closer to the finish line.

I have read enough of your posts to know that your thinking is along the lines of mine. Don't mind the ACE as long as no land is threatened I would also like to see a( high) bust on the NS forecast. I for one am just taking it one day at a time. Every day that the ensembles do not show a consistent threat in the next 14-15 days is one day closer to the finish line.

As a fellow SE coast resident ( S FL) I may be looking at this through rose colored glasses but I am pleasantly surprised by the lack of consistent Ensemble support going up to labor Day for any serious MDR development. It makes me feel like my untrained eye is missing the signals but for now I just do not see any major MDR threats 2 weeks into the heart of the season.

Looking at the sharp right turn of the NHC Cone it looks like the NHC is buying the Euro solution for now.

For now the GFS appears to be on its own island on this. It does not appear to have support from even its own ensembles.

What i don't understand about that map is the abnormally dry area just inland from the Gulf Coast, Are they saying that there will be little or no inland rainfall from all of the storms that that this map would indicate in the GOM especially the eastern GOM?

I just drove through a rain shower between King of Prussia and Paoli on 202. The car outdoor thermometer dropped from 99 to 79 degrees in literally less than a mile and a half of driving.

This!! By the time that the enviornmentalist and their lawyers are done with this it will take 4 years to get permits!

Follow up question: Would a stronger storm that much further out have a better chance of poleward movement even bumping up against a strong Bermuda/Azores high? I have read many times on this board that some of the biggest risks to the islands westward are storms that stay weak until it passes 60/65 degrees and then gets stronger and becomes a threat to the islands and westward. I guess what I am asking is if a stronger storm further east have a better chance of finding that weakness to recurve to.

Thanks so much for the quick response.

Question: With the greatest abnormalities in SST so far east would that increase the chances of early recurves? My understanding is that storms will lift poleward as they get stronger especially east of the islands.

Perfect for Phila Eagles fans that soon after the Super Bowl. Kind of gives a new meaning to the term Philly Special.

Now you have done it. Started a thread. The kiss of death.

Glad that I can help

Just flew in to West Palm Beach. It was one of the most turbulent descents that I have ever experienced and I fly about 25 times a year.

Would the exiting Lee leave a weakness allowing that storm to safely recurve?

It does bear watching although so far anyway the GFS looks to be alone in the track when you look at the 240 hour position on the EPS and CMC vs the GFS. Also neither the GEFS or the EPS give much support to bringing it that close the the EC

Looking somewhat further ahead: Some of this morning long range guidance has storm this doing a full loop once off shore and circling around to be a threat to the SE coast of Florida. Are the steering currents that crazy for that to be a reasonable possibility?

If the wave is already out there and if it was considered even a lower level threat to the islands/FL/SEUS I would think that the NHC would have at least a 20% Lemon for development over the next 7 days. If the sheer isn't there Is it the dry air that is preventing serious development?

The 16 day GFS show a parade of waves leaving Africa but none of them make it past the middle of the MDR.

Florida is notably not included in even a 5% chance. I hope that it is right.

I flew to Phila out of Fort Lauderdale today. On ascent the Sahara dust was very apparent.

Absolutely The self insure decision was strictly a business decision weighing the cost of wind insurance plus the deductible vs my worst case loss frim a cane.

As a S FL resident who is self insuring for wind damage I hope that he is right. I have always had a lot of respect for LC. When i lived in Philadelphia in the 1990s he was the first TV Met to sniff out the 30 inch Blizzard of 1996 a full week in advance( with mid 1990s technology!)

Did the fact that was worst at the airport itself have anything to do with heat generated from all of the jet engines?