bigtenfan

For SE FL the GFS shows about 3-4 inches of rain over the next 5 days. We get that in an afternoon T storm sometimes.

I don’t care if it produces 500 ACE as long as it stays OTS.

After Katrina fit South Florida as a strengthening Cat 1 and did a lot of damage JB wrote that a strengthening Cat 1 storm can cause more damage than a weakening Cat 3 storm. He mentioned mixing of upper air winds down to the surface.

As long as it stays in the middle of the ocean bothering no one but the fish and maybe shipping interest let it roll up all of the ACE numbers that it wants. Same goes for the wave coming off of Africa

Question for those on the board more knowledgeable than I am. I see that the TS warning is extended all the way down the Florida east coast yet the TS Wind speed probabilities for MIA. FLL and WPB are only 7, 12 and 14% respectively. If the probabilities are that low why does the TS warning extend down that far? Thanks in advance.

Most of us have been around long enough to know that an early season snow, say before Thanksgiving is the absolute kiss of death for the rest of the winter.

Very little in the way of other model support for that run even from its own ensembles. The EPS also has very little support that I can see.

I don't know about that. The GFS looks to have backed off at 12z from its aggressive 6Z look. The CMC looks about the same. The Icon has nothing. The EC at 0Z had nothing through 240h and the EPS had very little through 360 for a time period going into the peak season. This is NOT a season cancel response. As I mentioned in a previous post I am just taking it one day at a time with every day showing no major threats a day closer to the finish line.

I have read enough of your posts to know that your thinking is along the lines of mine. Don't mind the ACE as long as no land is threatened I would also like to see a( high) bust on the NS forecast. I for one am just taking it one day at a time. Every day that the ensembles do not show a consistent threat in the next 14-15 days is one day closer to the finish line.

As a fellow SE coast resident ( S FL) I may be looking at this through rose colored glasses but I am pleasantly surprised by the lack of consistent Ensemble support going up to labor Day for any serious MDR development. It makes me feel like my untrained eye is missing the signals but for now I just do not see any major MDR threats 2 weeks into the heart of the season.

Looking at the sharp right turn of the NHC Cone it looks like the NHC is buying the Euro solution for now.

For now the GFS appears to be on its own island on this. It does not appear to have support from even its own ensembles.

What i don't understand about that map is the abnormally dry area just inland from the Gulf Coast, Are they saying that there will be little or no inland rainfall from all of the storms that that this map would indicate in the GOM especially the eastern GOM?

I just drove through a rain shower between King of Prussia and Paoli on 202. The car outdoor thermometer dropped from 99 to 79 degrees in literally less than a mile and a half of driving.

This!! By the time that the enviornmentalist and their lawyers are done with this it will take 4 years to get permits!