benjammin

As the Ukie goes so goes the Euro... Sometimes..

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Sometimes I think when it comes to snow we're like this Russian proverb. God tells a man I'll give you anything you want but your neighbor gets double. "Make me blind in one eye" the man tells God.

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Miller A storms can make most everyone happy in the forum at the same time. This Miller B hybrid not so much.

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all i know is my in laws would be vaccinated if they lived in DC and not MD.

To be fair VA is like 49th out of 50 in vaccinations so a complete fail there.

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Other than for snow maybe at Deep Creek I have no desire to live in Maryland. When my wife from San Antonio moved to Arlington she'd ask about something in Maryland and I'd tell her "We live in VA. We don't need to go to Maryland."

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GFS sucked. Pretty warm 

Hasn't it been warm consistently for this storm?

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Pretty much every model I have seen so far tonight is trending slightly warmer

Now we'll see whether the a team models follow suit or not.

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I thought the first map said 2-6k" but it was just a plane symbolizing IAD. That would be a bullish call though.

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I'm shamelessly asking for IMBY advice... given the opportunity, would you guys to go Charlottesville for this one or stay in Arlington? I think I know the answer but want validation. 

Strictly on snow if you're hunting a big storm I'd say Arlington but if you want more of a sure thing C'ville. But if you live in North Arlington then it might be ok (lived most of my life a few blocks south of Arlington Boulevard)... Absent that where would you rather be?

 

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^I think that's conservative but a decent place to start a forecast with still a lot of uncertainty.

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So how about that NAM run...ducks. ;-)

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Not so fast...?

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^If that (DT's first look) verified it would lead to a very high NESIS number I would think.

 

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Just now, snowfan said:

I visited Monday. PSU was destroyed by the CCB while DCA only got an additional 2".

DCA  (swamp airport) may get 2" total and five miles in every direction around it will be 8-10+...

Plus the temperature makes a big difference as well as slower accretion can be more damaging because don't faster rates lead to more heat being released? 

 

 

Better for MD people and north.

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I get you. I remember being in chats waiting on the pbp. It's like waiting on a telegraph sharing important information or something.

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The street is white with likely another four or five hours of snow south of Lynchburg. I'll take that as a win and hopefully a bigger dog over the weekend.

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A dry slot, as annoying as it is, is preferable to rain causing what snow that does fall to melt faster.

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NAM is known for its wet bias so I doubt that

The funny thing is with this system is it hasn't been the NAM that's producing the large totals.

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Gotta love those German terms...I think that comes from the early 20th century or maybe shortly before, when there were a number of famous and excellent German chess masters of the time.

Usually though it's not just a move that worsens your position but that directly leads to a loss hence my saying it's black to move.

Here's another fun German term.The zwischenzug (German: pronounced [ˈtsvɪʃənˌtsuːk] "intermediate move") is a chess tactic in which a player, instead of playing the expected move (commonly a recapture ), first interposes another move posing an immediate threat that the opponent must answer, and only then plays the expected move (Hooper & Whyld 1992

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Who's move is it in your avatar [mention=1508]Always in Zugzwang[/mention]?  If it's black's move the game is over and white wins... if its white's move... stalemate

Given his name then it's black to move.

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18z NAM gives us 2 inches tomorrow. NC gets NAMd with 8-12 inches 

If NC gets more snow from that system tonight and tomorrow (which I doubt) than most of us get from Sunday to Monday that will be unfortunate.

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I know this is in the Sierras but still...wow.

https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lon=-120.00192001629166&lat=38.662026563733946#.YBDKNFNOmDY

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I think it was a maximum of 124 inches from tonight through Thursday night.

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Not that great (93) for snow in Arlington as it turned to sleet but the wind was fierce.

 

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