Caveman

I think the ensembles are showing a storm going up west of the mountains transitioning vorticity to the coast for a coastal development...very common in these parts as you are all aware. If the antecedent cold is sufficient, that makes for a nice winter event in these parts...albeit possibly a tad sloppy or heavy...? Storm to Pittsburgh, overrunning precip; then coastal take over...hammer time! That model posted is 234 hours out...Thoughts?

20°F+ surface T anomalies for a couple of days with Td >32°F will erode snow cover quickly if that indeed occurs as per the Euro...

Christmas Eve and early Christmas morn 2015 was awesome! It was warm and humid! As a young kid, I would've been depressed. Now, I loved it! I believe the maxT was 70F at KMDT on Christmas Eve!

7" here in Valley Green, northern York County. Liquid equivalent later for my 7 am COCORAHS observation...

Be ready for a heavy traffic and numerous people. It's worth the experience if you've never done it; however, I will warn you that it was very busy the ONE time we went years ago. I prefer to ride my bike up the rail trail.

Yeah...at one point according to Newberry Twp police website, there was no way to get in/out of my location via road. I never left as I was trying to divert water from house and not have to clean up basement...again! I use a standard 10:1 COCORAHS type rain gauge and was measuring about every hour or so throughout the day. From 3:30 pm to about 5 pm was the greatest rate (but even the "moderate" rain was heavy all day!). I've been measuring precip for COCORAHS since 2010 or so. It's easier now for me to go out and get soaked by a tropical rain than melt a column and get the liquid equivalent! When I was younger, I'd do snow angels and pack snow against the tent. Now I'd like to have weather every day like what we had today; Sept 2, 2021! I love weather...and moreso, I love the meteorology and the outdoors!

What is that drain?

Warm AMO cycle with higher dew points and thus warmer minimums.

Drainage basins for the various streams. Hydrology forecasting is very tricky for so many reasons!

I was waaaaay under!

8.22" storm total.Valley Green, northern York County.

Valley Green, northern York County.

8 pm: 8.12” oh and still raining!

Here are my obs leading up to Lee...Valley Green

Now at 7.18" as of 6:15 pm Valley Green

I'm in that little yellow square just east of I-83 under the "E" in E-Town.

And as of 4 pm here in Newberry Twp, there are 16 roads closed. Many of the closures are within a couple of miles of my location (Valley Green).

I'm 2.25 miles SSW of KMDT and have received 6.89" as of 5:15 pm! I hope you're right about that 1/2 inch prediction!

Crazy! And you are really just on the other side of the river...

5.07" as of 3:25 pm...with winds freshening! Valley Green

4.07" now at 2:00 pm; also starting to get a tad breezy.

3.76" as of 1:30 pm Valley Green...

As of noon, 3.05" total here in Valley Green...most of it fell from 9:00 am on. Getting ready to go out and bail again soon! Not looking forward to this afternoon!

I just now reached 1.50"; Valley Green, northern York County

Harrisburg: 3.25" Lancaster: 2.75" York: 3.10" Tamaqua: 4.75" Williamsport: 1.75" State College: 2.25" Chambersburg: 4.00" Clearfield: 1.50" Just my random thoughts...