GSP
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 220 PM EST Wednesday...A weak cold front will continue to
cross the FA early Sun with little additional precip and maybe a bit
of light snow across the higher NC mtn peaks. Colder air will filter
in behind the front as a 1030 mb Can high over the Great Lakes
region is progged to advance east and ridge down east of the Apps.
This flow will bring near seasonal and below temps back to the
region thru the period. The coldest air looks to push in from the NE
Sun night into Mon, while the atmos remains quite dry.
By Mon night things begin to change as the op models generally agree
on a weak nrn GOM low developing in a split flow regime aloft, which
will increase moist flux into the area. The 12z GFS has backed off
on the timing and degree of QPF response Mon night thru Tue and yet
is still quicker and moister than the current ECMWF. Thus, PoPs have
been curtailed back Mon night and Tue to the lower chance range.
Anticipated precip amts were also lowered, which makes a difference
as far as possible p/type issues early Tue. For now, have a little
snow across the higher NC terrain and a quick period of light
snow/rain mix north of I-40 thru daybreak Tue. If the current drying
trends continues, these lowly amts and p/types could be overdone.
Yet, much uncertainty exists with this set-up and things could
actually go the other way with more of a wintry threat as we get
closer to the period.