buckeyefan1

A mixed bag of fun Euro-7.5" sn, .60 zr. .2 ip GFS 3" sn, .50 zr, 3" ip and GEM 9" sn, .10 zr and 4" ip IKR?! I absolutely love watching the colors fill in

Indeed and it's awesome

Ensembles

RDU

CAE

HKY

AVL

GSP

I'm not looking at the column until I can see the whites of its eyes Everyone complains about sleet, but to me that just keeps the snow around longer and gives perfect sledding conditions

Some pingers to make the sledding awesome

It is further south than the gfs too at 99

@81 it's in about the same spot and slightly weaker

Out to 60 the 12z euro is a touch weaker and slightly east of 06z

As a reminder, this is the storm thread. Please keep the banter in the sanitarium

Exactly! Turn your iphone to landscape so you can see locations

12z GFS @60 is in the same place, just a tad bit weaker as it hasn't closed off yet

GSP .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 320 am EST Wednesday: The latest guidance suite is starting to feature a bit better agreement on the overall aspects of the winter storm likely to impact the area over the weekend. However, there remains some variation regarding low tracks, thermal profiles, and QPF for various periods, and these details continue to make precipitation types and amounts highly uncertain. Nearly all solutions have trended toward cutting off the southern portion of the split upper flow near the lower Mississippi River Valley by late Saturday. In a slight role reversal over the past 24 hours, the ECMWF 500 mb prognostic now features a cutoff low with a farther south low center position than the operational GFS. However, both models agree fairly well on the general timing, migrating the system over the Deep/Mid South Sunday and then over the Carolinas Sunday night as the system phases back into the northern stream. Meanwhile, sprawling surface high pressure from southern Ontario to New England will establish a strong cold air damming configuration east of the Appalachians ahead of the storm on Saturday. The resulting surface-based cold layer is becoming one of the more confident aspects of the upcoming weekend storm. The onset timing of wintry precipitation, however, remains uncertain. There are hints of weak and shallow upglide developing over the preexisting baroclinic zone as early as late Friday night or Saturday morning, with the isentropic lift slowly improving the day on Saturday well east of the approaching system. The forecast features below guidance temperatures and wintry ptypes at onset across the northern half. The period of deepest moisture and best forcing now looks slated for Saturday night through Sunday as a Deep South surface wave transitions to the Carolina coast. Strong jet-level divergence is indicated during this period and deformation zone forcing will likely impact our area by Sunday, especially over western NC given the current low track forecast. Precipitation types remain challenging. Profiles have trended to stronger warm nosing across the southern half of the area, with prolonged sleet and southern tier freezing rain now quite possible. However, the operational model runs appear warmer than most of the ensemble members, so much of the QPF could still fall as snow. An ensemble approach has been adopted for weekend profiles, which leads to more snow in the forecast than might be indicated on operational model profiles. The mixed ptype belt should especially impact locations southeast of I- 85, but with a changeover back to snow likely occurring from the west throughout on Sunday night as the system pulls away to the northeast. Scattered upslope snow showers should persist along the TN border counties through Sunday night, and possibly well into Monday, further enhancing snow amounts there. We are still a bit out of the Winter Storm Watch timeframe, so this will remain highlighted in the HWO. The main change will be the addition of sleet and freezing rain to the forecast, especially across the southeast part of the area. Another vigorous shortwave is forecast to drop southeast into the eastern trough Monday before the flow pattern flattens out by Tuesday. This could briefly reinvigorate western mountain snow showers, which may not have completely ended from the weekend system before this wave arrives. Upslope moisture will gradually end Monday night into Tuesday.