buckeyefan1

It's always nice when that happens fyi.....if you turn your phone to landscape, you can see locations if they have it listed

Yes

Please stop asking the same questions in every thread

It looks like they are thinking mostly sleet or frozen slop with the totals they put out I'm riding the hrrr train If it can ruin our dreams time after time, it can give back just as good as it takes away

Didn't some of you nc peeps see about 3" of snow 10 days ago? Yes, I know it melted quickly, but there is no denying it fell from the sky

hrrr at 18

HRRR SPC Hourly

Okay. Let's get through the the current system first

What in the actual........lol......because, as you all know, I believe in this pattern the thread can stay. You better bring it or the wrath will not be pretty I'm not pinning it until you find a new gif for your bouncing blue thingy to bounce

It's DT's map that stormtracker fixed.......newbies

42/29

We won't be traveling anywhere tomorrow and maybe not most of Monday either

Ya'll know that in order to cash out on the highest snow totals, you have to be able to smell the rain Seriously though, good luck everyone!! I hope not to be encased in ice so that I can get out and take some pictures of the winter wonderland

Nice discussion from CAE .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/... Impactful winter storm set to impact the northern half of the forecast area, bringing with it widespread freezing rain and gusty winds. ======================= SYNOPTIC SET UP ======================= Challenging forecast is on tap across the forecast area as we get into this period, with a potential ice storm developing late Saturday night and Sunday morning across portions of the forecast area. Synoptically impressive event will be taking shape and overspreading the area, as a sharp & positively tilted 500 hPa trough digs into the lower MS Valley at the beginning of this period. Deepening moisture in the atmosphere will be noted ahead of this by increasing cloud cover across the FA. Meanwhile, convergence across the Mid-Atlantic region will foster the southward ridging of a strong Canadian high pressure system. As a result, surface wedging will develop during the day on Saturday and continue to build into the region via cold air advection and northeasterly flow Saturday night. This will continue to take shape through the night as a surface low deepens along the Gulf Coast and moves south of this wedge. In addition to some cold air advection noted with the wedge, dry low-level air is expected to push into the region, with surface dewpoint depressions of ~8-12F in place by 1a Sunday. Impressive forcing for ascent is expected to push into the region between 1a and 4a. Of note will be a developing dual upper level jet structure, with the FA placed underneath the coupled right-entrance region and exit region of 250 hPa jet streaks. This will result in a strong response in the 850 hpa jet, with a 50+ knot low-level jet pushing over the region Sunday morning. Strong isentropic lift will overspread the region as a result, and precipitation will blossom over the region after 1a Sunday. The surface low is expected to approach and pass through/around the region (depending on the strength of the surface wedge) by 1p on Sunday. As this interacts with the wedge, a strong surface pressure gradient will develop between 4a and 10a on Sunday, and should result in gusty winds. By 1p on Sunday, the mid/upper level closed low will begin to take on a negative tilt and push to the north and northeast of the area, with a dry slot likely ending widespread precipitation from south to north on Sunday afternoon. Some light showers may persist into Sunday evening, but these aren`t likely to result in widespread issues. ======================= MESOCALE DETAILS ======================= As previously outlined, this is a challenging forecast across the region. Evening guidance has shifted slightly warmer with the surface wedging, while morning/midday guidance yesterday was slightly cooler with it. This back and forth is making the forecast difficult, especially in the areas that area closest to the freezing line in the central Midlands. There are some things to keep in mind today as we approach this event: 1. Models still seem to be struggling with the strength of the wedge. This is usually the case with wedging events, and it is usually underestimated. It is leading to lower confidence in how temperatures will play out. If the wedge is stronger, more freezing rain can be expected further south. If weaker, the area of freezing rain will shrink northward. 2. Dewpoints will be important watch as we get into this afternoon and tonight. Models are split on this, but the lower the dewpoints get ahead of this, the more evaporative cooling potential we will see when precip quickly increases across the region. Slight differences can make a large impact and can be illustrated by looking at the HREF and NAM. The HREF has lower dewpoints at precip onset and results in a more widespread & significant event. The wetbulb temperature will be key in where the rain/freezing rain line eventually sets up. 3. Temperatures are expected to rise above freezing across the area, starting between 8a and 10a across the central Midlands, and then between 10a and 12p across the northern Midlands. The CSRA and southern Midlands will likely remain above freezing for the bulk of the event. 4. Precipitation rate will likely be heavy, and this will have an impact on overall ice accumulation efficiency. As previously mentioned, synoptic scale ascent is very impressive in the 4a to 1p Sunday timeframe. With PWs approaching 175-200% of normal, this will result in moderate to heavy rainfall. This is expected to keep freezing rain accumulation lower than the overall forecast QPF may suggest otherwise. All of that being said, this event is going to come down to some nowcasting later today and tonight. This is going to be a tight forecast across the central Midlands. Forecast soundings have a deep warm layer, indicating that rain to freezing rain back to rain is the likely P-type progression. The time spend with freezing rain is unknown, but highest confidence in a long duration freezing rain event is across the northern Midlands. Model guidance should continue to get a clearer and better picture through the day today, but with a forecast as tight as this one will be, watching observations is going to help clear up a lot of the uncertainty that we have right now. =========================== EXPECTATIONS/CONFIDENCE =========================== Current areas in headlines look good for now. We will keep the Ice Storm Warning unchanged, even if some sleet may mix up there at the onset of precipitation. Will transition Winter Storm Watch areas to a Winter Weather Advisory for now, and expand the advisory one tier of counties south to account for possible light accumulations of ice. Expect 0.20"-0.40" of ice accumulation in the Ice Storm Warning area, with 0.01"-0.20" of ice accumulation in the Advisory area. Timing of greatest impacts & freezing rain looks to be from 5a through 9a across the Advisory area, and 3a to 11a across the Warning area. Trees and powerlines are expected to be strained by the ice accumulation, which may result in some down tree limbs and power outages. Be prepared for potential power outages, especially in the Ice Storm Warning area. Confidence is certainly highest that the Warning area will see highest ice accumulation, with confidence lower across the Advisory. There is too much uncertainty at this point to justify upgrading to a warning, though that could be necessary if some of the cooler model guidance verifies tonight. Keep abreast of the latest forecasts today!

GSP overnight .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 345 AM EST Saturday: Forecast for the overnight hours is simple in comparison to the next 30 hours. Largely anticipate quasi- zonal flow aloft with weak northeasterly flow at the surface. Profiles remain dry through perhaps sunrise Saturday, with only high cirrus filtering in before dawn. High pressure settles across New England on Saturday, and strengthens the developing northeasterly flow, prompting the developing of a cold-air damming situation east of the Appalachians. Increasing low-level WAA after 12Z suggests that moist upglide will gradually tick upward throughout the day, which will result in enhanced low- to mid-level cloud cover. A few of the CAMs are advertising spotty showers from late morning onward, but profiles indicate continued dry advection in the boundary layer (courtesy of sustained northeast winds) will keep precipitation from reaching the ground in lieu of simply strengthening the cold wedge. Saturday night, impacts from an approaching winter storm will begin in earnest. By 21Z, the models depict a closed upper low shifting east out of the ArkLaTex region and steering a rapidly developing surface cyclone northeast out of the Deep South. Models are now in excellent agreement that the low will track across the southern Upstate and produce widespread wintry precipitation. With the cold wedge still intact and ~850mb WAA enhancing a warm nose aloft, a developing rain-freezing rain mix will further enhance the CAD. How far north and west this warm nose will extend remains a topic of contention among the models still, but the trend over the last 24 hours has been for the CAMs to bring the warm nose farther inland, resulting in more widespread ice across the Upstate and even into parts of the Piedmont. As the 850mb low tracks north and east of our CWA, low-level flow will rapidly turn easterly by perhaps 12Z Sunday. 850mb WAA becomes increasingly anemic and the warm nose begins to diminish by Sunday evening. By this point in time, however, profiles will starting to dry, as dry cool-sector air filters into the area, scouring out the wedge. This drying should gradually deactivate ice nuclei, decreasing precip rates overall and allowing a transition back to a light, patchy, snow-sleet mix across most of the Piedmont and Upstate. The mountains, meanwhile are on track for a mostly-snow forecast. The warm nose should not penetrate into the Appalachians. Profiles here appear to remain well-saturated and sub-freezing through most of the event, allowing for an easy transition from a rain-snow mix to all snow from Saturday night onward. Precipitation intensity and coverage should drop off significantly past mid-afternoon Sunday. Patchy snow and sleet warrants slight PoPs across the area through 00Z Monday and beyond, however, especially in the mountains where NW flow snow will likely already be developing in the wake of the system.

18z Euro clowns

Recap of today's episode of how the models turn for mby

18z gfs holds too

I've missed your sassyness sir

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC 347 PM EST Fri Jan 14 2022 GAZ029-SCZ011>014-019-150500- /O.UPG.KGSP.WS.A.0001.220116T0500Z-220117T0500Z/ /O.NEW.KGSP.IS.W.0001.220116T0500Z-220117T0500Z/ Elbert-Abbeville-Laurens-Union SC-Chester-Greenwood- Including the cities of Elberton, Fortsonia, Middleton, Ruckersville, Abbeville, Calhoun Falls, Laurens, Clinton, Union, Monarch Mills, Chester, Cornwell, Great Falls, Ware Shoals, and Ninety Six 347 PM EST Fri Jan 14 2022 ...ICE STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT TO MIDNIGHT EST SUNDAY NIGHT... * WHAT...Significant icing expected. Total ice accumulations of one tenth to four tenths of an inch, with minor snow and sleet accumulations also possible. * WHERE...The lower Piedmont of upstate South Carolina and northeast Georgia from Elbert County to Chester County. * WHEN...From midnight Saturday night to midnight EST Sunday night. * IMPACTS...Travel could be nearly impossible. At least scattered power outages and tree damage are likely due to the ice and gusty winds. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Light rain, possibly mixing in with snow and sleet, will begin Saturday evening and will gradually change over to freezing rain early Sunday morning. The precipitation should taper off Sunday afternoon and evening, perhaps as a period of light snow. Temperatures may stay below freezing until late Monday morning. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... An Ice Storm Storm Warning means severe winter weather conditions are expected or occurring. Significant amounts of ice accumulations will make travel dangerous or impossible. Travel is strongly discouraged. Commerce will likely be severely impacted. If you must travel, keep a flashlight, food, and water in your vehicle in case of an emergency. Ice accumulations and winds will likely lead to snapped power lines and falling tree branches that add to the danger. Prepare for possible power outages. Please report snow and ice accumulations by calling the National Weather Service toll free at...1...800...2 6 7...8 1 0 1. Leave a message with your observation and the specific location where it occurred. You can also post your report to National Weather Service Greenville Spartanburg Facebook or tweet your report using hashtag nwsgsp.