Tropical trouble on the horizon?
GSP
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 145 PM EDT Thursday: The upper low and surface cyclone fall
out of phase as they drift off the coast, becoming vertically
stacked by Monday evening. Ridging intensifies over the eastern
CONUS, while a broad subtropical high begins to stall the stacked
low off the Carolina coast on Tuesday. Model trio consisting of
the GFS, ECMWF, and CMC presently depicts the low reversing course
and nudging back westward, then drifting down the Carolina/Georgia
coast from midweek onward. This results in an influx of moisture,
possibly for an extended period, but the evolution of the system
remains somewhat in question as do specific rainfall totals;
ensemble depictions of QPF vary wildly from Thursday onward, with
some producing appreciable rainfall as early as Thursday morning
and others holding off on midweek rain but hinting at additional
precipitation after the end of the forecast period.
Temperatures generally remain near-normal through the extended
forecast at this time. However, especially after Tuesday the
evolution of the retrograding low could have a large impact on
temperatures depending on how things play out.