michsnowfreak

The cold in Detroit has been impressive but nothing record breaking. Certainly more than seasonable cold. January is running a temp departure of -5.0° to date. If we go this last week without hitting 40°, this will only be the 10th January in 152 years of record to not hit 40°.

Even DTX gets it lol: Friday night through Saturday night will be one of those MI winter days with multiple chances for show showers, higher POPs, but with little QPF/snow amounts most likely.

For me its not all about average snowfall. Its been nice to have a lot of sustained winter this year. We can get years with avg snowfall but tons of thaws, and despite the final snowfall number it didnt seem like it. This year has been very wintry but boring. Its really been a quiet one outside of a few systems and frequent lakes disturbances. Clippers are great, but they seem to ebb and flow over the years. Weve had a handful in recent years. I believe the '80s-90s were clipper city, it was our bread and butter here. Yet, 90s winters overall sucked. Theres SO many different ways it can snow in the Great Lakes (and NE), so I dont worry about just one aspect of it. The projected change in pattern brings WAY more chances for fun, but also some risks. Buckle up!

Oh dont get me wrong. As an all-things winter lover I enjoy the pattern a lot too. Snowflakes falling yet again today. I wish there was more snow, but theres been pretty consistent light snowcover and near daily snowfall this month. The only issue I have is that we are really not getting a great clipper pattern like we could with this cold NW flow, so im looking forward to the pattern change as we head into Feb. Obviously it will come with the usual of some people freaking out over random OP model runs, but pattern & climo recognition makes it clear. The projected pattern will increase 3 things for our are: variablity, the chance of rainers/thaws, but most importantly, the chance of some good snowstorms. Its a gamble for sure, but more times than not this pattern will yield a decent amount of snow, even if it means seeing bare ground and rain again at some point.

Omaha has only seen 1.0" of snow all season. Its not the driest January on record here, but its in the top 20 so far. Plus, like I said, it snows pretty much every day but just not squeezing out much water. Very UN-Nina like. PRELIMINARY LOCAL CLIMATOLOGICAL DATA (WS FORM: F-6) STATION: DETROIT MI MONTH: JANUARY YEAR: 2025 LATITUDE: 42 13 N LONGITUDE: 83 20 W TEMPERATURE IN F: :PCPN: SNOW: WIND :SUNSHINE: SKY :PK WND ================================================================================ 1 2 3 4 5 6A 6B 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 12Z AVG MX 2MIN DY MAX MIN AVG DEP HDD CDD WTR SNW DPTH SPD SPD DIR MIN PSBL S-S WX SPD DR ================================================================================ 1 37 30 34 6 31 0 0.01 T 0 13.2 22 260 M M 10 1 28 250 2 30 27 29 2 36 0 T 0.1 0 13.3 21 280 M M 10 29 270 3 28 23 26 -1 39 0 0.02 0.4 T 13.7 24 290 M M 10 32 280 4 25 19 22 -5 43 0 T T T 14.9 22 270 M M 9 31 310 5 27 12 20 -7 45 0 T T T 8.2 16 300 M M 7 23 290 6 28 21 25 -2 40 0 0.01 0.1 T 12.2 23 10 M M 10 169 31 340 7 30 21 26 0 39 0 T T T 10.7 21 320 M M 9 31 330 8 26 16 21 -5 44 0 T T T 8.5 16 300 M M 10 25 330 9 28 7 18 -8 47 0 0.00 0.0 T 5.7 13 210 M M 2 17 220 10 26 15 21 -5 44 0 0.16 3.2 T 8.2 18 190 M M 9 128 24 190 11 34 17 26 0 39 0 0.04 0.5 4 7.2 15 290 M M 9 1 19 280 12 34 23 29 3 36 0 0.02 0.6 3 12.2 23 210 M M 9 1 30 200 13 34 16 25 -1 40 0 T T 3 16.2 29 230 M M 10 9 36 230 14 20 9 15 -11 50 0 0.03 0.8 3 11.0 21 310 M M 7 28 300 15 26 8 17 -9 48 0 T T 4 11.8 21 220 M M 7 27 210 16 32 17 25 0 40 0 0.05 1.4 4 11.5 22 220 M M 10 189 29 210 17 38 20 29 4 36 0 0.00 0.0 4 13.3 23 190 M M 7 30 190 18 38 20 29 4 36 0 0.24 T 2 12.6 23 220 M M 8 1 26 340 19 22 8 15 -10 50 0 T T 2 9.0 18 300 M M 9 24 290 20 13 5 9 -16 56 0 T T 2 14.2 24 240 M M 5 32 220 21 10 0 5 -20 60 0 T T 2 12.3 21 280 M M 6 27 220 22 16 -3 7 -18 58 0 0.01 0.1 2 13.1 20 170 M M 7 25 190 23 26 13 20 -5 45 0 0.07 1.4 2 10.5 18 300 M M 9 19 22 290 ================================================================================ SM 628 344 1002 0 0.66 8.6 263.5 M 189 ================================================================================

The midwest/upper midwest is WELL below normal to date west of the Lakes. It was -20° in Rochester, MN this week with no snow on the ground. Here in MI outside the lake snowbelt it's dry and cold with lots of flakes and dusters but no big storm. It's wild to think about it...Detroit has seen snow fall on 21 of the first 23 days of January, but the month to date snowfall is 8.6" and 14.0" on the season (normal to date is 21"). As a winter lover, it's great to see the mood flakes, the local lakes thick with ice, and a constant albeit not deep snowcover. But the lack of anything meaningful starts to really grind on you as we hit mid winter. My eyes are glued to the window for the first flakes of Oct/Nov, but when they become a daily occurrence & you know that any storms are hundreds if not thousands of miles away, it's not quite the same. I will gladly take the gamble to change up the pattern, even if we have to flirt with rainers and get thaws in order to increase the chance of some good snowstorms. IF this pattern were producing more clippers it would be a completely different story. But it's not.

DTW also had 1.5", bringing January to 8.6" and 14.0" on season. Snow depths crept back up to 3" at Detroit, 5" at Flint, and 8" at DTX NWS White Lake.

1.5" of powder last night into today did wonders to brighten up the old crusty snow. Brings my Jan total to 8.9" and 14.4" season.

A more active gradient pattern, more traditional Nina if you will, is being hinted at on a lot of models/ensembles moving forward. This will likely bring more variable weather, more chances of rainers and thaws, but certainly more snowstorm chances as well.

DTW has recorded snow on 23 of the 25 days since December 30th. Even when its a lot of mood flakes and dusters, the Lakes spin the flakes. Snow fell at DTW on... November- 5 of 30 days December- 16 of 31 days January- 21 of 23 days so far

Remember it well. Detroit saw 12.2". This was insane for a clipper. Lots of blizzard conditions too. I remember they were already hyping it up as a clipper on steroids, I think forecasting 5-8" (most clippers are 1-3, 2-4, etc). But it wayy overperformed.

Light sugar snow fell nearly all night and now we actually have a decent last band moving through of more dendrites. Didnt get as much to the north but it definitely touched up the old crusty snow. Prior to todays new snow, the snowcover was quite variable because of last Fridays thaw, so now more protected areas have 3-4" on the ground but some areas only have 1-2". There had been lots of grass showing on salt splattered freeways, but of course, thats about as accurate a representation of snow depth as is a snowbank lol.

Yes. All regions certainly see their share of model misses, model porn, and nowcast model failures. But the midwest/Great Lakes region is susceptible to so many different KINDS of weather disturbances that it creates extra mayhem.

It also has a more active pattern, which is more important. Dont get me wrong, I love cold and snowcover (even tho its a big mangy, its better than bare ground) but the zzzs need to stop lol.

Gulf moisture transport (or lackthereof) is always something that we look for when a snowstorm is coming north into our region after originating in the south. Its a big key to whether it will fizzle out or get that moisture boost. So to literally be ON the gulf with an almost impossible setup, no surprise they got the snow rates they did.

This goes back to our conversation yesterday. ASOS is too dry in dry snow. Idk what they do to it, but theyve definitely made improvements at first order sites like DTW, but the non-first order sites (ex: DET) the ASOS still does awful (I thought I heard theres ASOS and AWOS, but not sure). My guess is that since it never snows in new orleans, their ASOS did not have the proper calibration that theyve done to correct the dry issues at more northern locations. The link you sent is exactly how I measure liquid in my snowfall, and is the traditional way the NWS does it at non-ASOS sites. Which is why ill say it again, man-power is still needed to measure snow but the ASOS is used 99% of the time for liquid. Its usually quite good, but sometimes falls short. Automation is not always the answer imo.

For sure, although down there they literally have no concept of measuring snow haha. Could also be measuring on grass (which is undoubtedly lush and squishy) and sticking the ruler in too far. Wild storm.

DTW bottomed out at -3F this morning.

Snow on the ground New Orleans, LA- 8" Burlington, VT- 2" Detroit, MI- 2" Minneapolis, MN- 1" Bismark, ND- T Chicago, IL- 0 Green Bay, WI- 0

Detroit, MI- 2" Minneapolis, MN- 1" Bismark, ND- T Chicago, IL- 0 Green Bay, WI- 0

I notice that about sleet. It just says overcast usually lol.

haha i was looking for a snowbow. it was blowing pixies and the sun was shining.

We have a 1-2 inch crust of snow on the ground and everything is frozen solid. Its an ice fisherman's dream. January has been deep winter for sure, but dry, cold winter. Lots of flakes in the air but just sitting at 12.9" on the season. Will welcome a more active pattern with open arms.

Havent winter lovers in the SE already had more winter than theyve had the last decade combined lol?

New Orleans, New Orleans International Airport 09:53 Heavy Snow Freezing Fog 27 New Orleans measurable snowfall since 1948 Feb 1958- 2.0” Dec 1963- 2.7” Jan 1973- 0.1” Feb 1973- 0.6” Jan 1985- 0.4” Dec 1989- 0.5” Dec 2009- 0.1” Idk about florida. they look to get lots of sleet. Louisiana will be the winner of this storm.