michsnowfreak

Excellent post Don. Every discussion on climate does not always need to come back to "well the mean temperature rose...". More than one aspect of weather can be discussed. I never said great lakes winters havent warmed since the 1870s. But the warmth is not nearly as extreme other locations. As I've said I've studied Detroits weather climate for decades. Im talking newspaper stories, details in the LCD forms, anecdotes in the old weather books, etc not just the raw numbers on xmacis. These graphs illustrate well the weaker winters of the 1930s-60s locally. No matter what way you slice it or which dataset you use, those decades strongly lacked extreme cold and extreme snow. For instance, let's say i was born in 1930. By my 40th birthday, I would have seen far less severe winter weather than I had seen by being born in 1983 like I actually was. I dont know what the reasoning was or why some are so against discussing it. But it was a multi-decadal regime that really differed from the decades before and since. The radical change to harsh 1970s winters was like a different climate. Based on what journal data is available, I suspect had official weather records started earlier, say 1830, we wouldve seen a trend of even less snow and more extreme cold low temps. A snow lover is only going to want it so cold in this climate zone. As for extreme cold? Coldest I've felt in my life was Jan 2014 and Feb 2015. Those winters are infamous for the severity. But in the ensuing milder winters since 2016, there have been multiple shots of severe cold as well. And that was where this discussion started. Talk about warming climate all you want, but dont act like severe cold shots dont still happen. Lastly, as for the threaded record moving around. That happens in most places. There are obvious differences in different places, but also, you can't compare a place in 2025 and assume it was the exact same in 1935. When the weather bureau/weather service moves a station, all of the bells and whistles go with it. So essentially, since Detroit city airport stopped being the official site in the 1960s its basically a coop station with an unmamned max/min thermometer, an inaccurate tipping gauge and no snow measurements.

No YOU are something else. I picked a round figure- 100 years. Using the same graphs you always use. This is so rich coming from someone who goes into everyones subforum (where most ignore you) with the most random data for the most random starting points. You just pick based on whatever gives you what you want. One minute youll use POR the next you will decry it. I never said I threw out data, I brought up how the 1880s data seemed low at this coop station. Meanwhile, you ALWAYS have a problem with older data you dont like and are always discounting it. See, ive studied my areas climate data for years. You just plug in numbers for anything anywhere to find what you want. Since you got so offended that I questioned anything about the Ann Arbor data, you must LOVE how their winter temps have remained pretty steady for decades and snowfall has MORE THAN DOUBLED since records began.

Very pleasant day for the dog days today. The air is cleaner, the sky clearer, and morning low in the 50s only rebounded to low-humidity 70s. Very depressing that it isnt going to last.

Remember this is a coop station. The data is suspiciously cold. One thing that IS good about stations like this (coop stations, unmoved for 140+ years) is that you can still see the "good" and "not good" winters by comparing Ann Arbor to nearby Detroit. I have noted on multiple occasions that locally December has warmed the most, January not at all, and February slightly over the last 100 years. And Ann Arbor is yet another station that shows this. An increase of 3.4F in Dec, 0.0F in Jan, 1.5F in Feb. Avg January temperature regression the last 100 years (1926-2025) Toledo: -0.8F Detroit: -0.4F Flint: -0.1F Ann Arbor: 0.0F Saginaw: +0.3F

Nearly all first order sites have had multiple moves in their period of record. Its completely normal and its done for the sole purpose of making the temps more equal/representative. Using the official threaded data is not "mixing". Ann Arbor is NOT a first order station, but it is one of the few that has a continuous record in the same location dating back to the 1880s. As said, when they are not a first order station, I use all elements (temp, precip, snowfall) with caution. Especially pre-1920. But since you brought it up, I notice you didnt include snowfall. Ann Arbors snowfall has more than doubled since records began - thats one hell of a regression line up (see attached). 26.3" to 56.3" I also note how relatively consistent Ann Arbors winter temps have been the last 100 years: 1930s- 27.3F 1940s- 26.3F 1950s- 27.7F 1960s- 26.3F 1970s- 24.9F 1980s- 26.0F 1990s- 27.9F 2000s- 27.4F 2010s- 27.5F Last 100 years avg: 26.9F, 2024-25: 26.6F. No, 2024-25 was not a "warm" winter. However, the ENTIRE point of my post, which as usual was turned into something different once the usuals got involved, was the discussion how regardless of a warming climate, severe winter cold shots are still occurring. Since the 1890s, this is how many times each decade saw a temp of -10F or colder: 1890s- 12 1900s- 8 1910s- 13 1920s- 4 1930s- 5 1940s- 2 1950s- 0 1960s- 3 1970s- 8 1980s- 11 1990s- 4 2000s- 1 2010s- 12 So the 2010s saw the most -10F or colder temps since the 1910s. In fact, the 2010s saw more such temps than the 1920s-50s or 1930s-60s COMBINED.

Its a very seasonable day today for mid July. Sunny, low 80s, not humid. But I still hate it. Just not made for 80+

I get that vibe too - some seem to imply that the NYC climate was wintrier in days of yore than it really was. Funny thing, when you look at annual 1"+ snowcover days for NYC since 1920, the 1930s, 1950s, 1970s, 1980s, 1990s, & 2000s were all more bare than the 2010s. 1920s- 29 1930s- 21 1940s- 32 1950s- 15 1960s- 28 1970s- 25 1980s- 19 1990s- M 2000s- 20 2010s- 27

Annual average of days AOB 0F at Detroit 1880s- 6 1890s- 5 1900s- 4 1910s- 5 1920s- 3 1930s- 4 1940s- 2 1950s- 1 1960s- 3 1970s- 9 1980s- 8 1990s- 3 2000s- 3 2010s- 5

Interesting read, and this has actually been mentioned by @Stormchaserchuck1 and myself before. For instance, this line: "As winters in the United States continue to warm on average, extreme cold snaps still manage to grip large swaths of the country with surprising ferocity." In discussing some of the arctic outbreaks of recent years, the usual posters are very quick to try and put out the discussion before it gets started, citing the mean winter temp in the U.S. and/or the cold/warm ranking of the mean temp of winter for the entire U.S., as if that takes away the arctic outbreaks. Some years have seen outbreaks in areas that are far more severe than at any time during past winters with an overall colder mean temp in that same area.

Went to the Tigers game last night. Humidity was just oppressive. Temp was 82 with a dew of 73. Not comfortable at all. And it really shows the difference between slightly humid and huuuuumid.

Not sure on this July. The 2nd half of the month looks normal to even below normal in temps. Doubt it will end up record warm.

I dont disagree. My point was that we aren't seeing those high temps be matched or exceeded anytime soon.

It was definitely a warm winter, but I actually got over 40" in 2001-02. And 1997-98 sucked, but still managed over 27". I would say my worse is a tie between 2011-12 & 2023-24. My all-time personal low for snowfall is 2023-24 (21.4") with 2011-12 coming in 2nd (25.5") but in Jan 2024 we had a few weeks of bitter cold and good snows, so at least there was a spell of deep winter. The rest of that winter was remarkably dull. In 2011-12 it was more spread out with spurts throughout Dec-Feb, but no deep winter or lasting winter. I continue to be optimistic for 2025-26.

First of all, either you edited it or I misread it, as I thought your original post said 10F per DECADE. So if i misread, my bad. But interjecting context not in your original post? You arent the only one allowed to post/discuss data. You ask what is more relevant, data from the 1800s or from the last 5.5 decades? Thats a good question, and one you frequently bounce back and forth on. I would think that the NWS using 30-year normals is an excellent way to keep up with any current trends in weather data. However, I have heard you bring up (usually when someone discusses a current pattern of colder than avg temps) how the 30-yr normals are warmer so its seems an unfair representation. But for other things, I have seen you use the entire period-of-record (if it fits in better with whatever your driving at at that moment). My opinion? All data is relevant but the starting point should be clearly stated. As time goes on, the stationary starting point of 1970 really looks more and more of a joke, and everyone knows EXACTLY why its picked. It was convenient when it was 30, but now its 55 years and counting. 30 year normals are too short but 100 years are too long?. I have been studying weather records for decades, and there is always that group of sensationalists who try to make certain things look more extreme than they are. And among that group, starting in 1970 is VERY important, but equally important is to completely ignore/sweep under the rug the 1930s-1950s summers/winters. It was a solid 30-year stretch of weather that was a complete change from the decades immediately before and after, chock full of pitiful winters and heatwave after heatwave in summer, and it puts a tremendous wrench in extreme warming charts. Solution? Just ignore it, and start at the coldest time on record as baseline. 1970s winters were the absolute benchmark for cold in this region. Temperature wise, they were far from "average". At most stations, 1970s winters were some 5-7F colder than the 1950s (2 decades earlier) or 1990s (2 decades later). Sticking to northern Ohio per your post, over the last century, the last complete decade of January, the 2010s, was colder than the 2000s, 1990s, 1950s, 1940s, 1930s. At Cleveland the 2010s Januaries were colder than the 2000s, 1990s, 1950s, 1930s. The 2020s have not finished. But 10-20F/century? L-O-L. Toledo 1930s- 29.5F 1940s- 24.8F 1950s- 26.7F 1960s- 23.4F 1970s- 20.7F 1980s- 22.9F 1990s- 26.7F 2000s- 26.1F 2010s- 24.8F 2020s- 29.2F Cleveland 1930s- 32.1F 1940s- 27.1F 1950s- 29.0F 1960s- 25.4F 1970s- 23.6F 1980s- 25.2F 1990s- 28.8F 2000s- 27.8F 2010s- 27.5F 2020s- 30.3F

Wanted to follow up on this as I ran the numbers for the Great Lakes region of MI/OH/IN for a nice round number - 100 years. This way every station starts at the same time. Actually, 100 years would seem to be a logical number for many graphs, but in all actuality it is a very unpopular one for the "since 1970" crowd. Im not posting 22 graphs but the numbers are easily verifiable. This shows the January temperature change over the last 100 years, from 1926-2025. Michigan shows essentially no change (+/- 0.5F) while Ohio and Indiana have gotten colder. I included Ann Arbor because while it is not a first order station, it is a station that has remained in the same spot since 1880 (at U of M), so no location change. Although, even a location change cannot account for the outrageous claim of average temperatures rising some 10-15F in NE OH as was alluded to in a previous post. Michigan Houghton Lake: -0.5F Detroit: -0.4F Flint: -0.1F *Ann Arbor: 0.0F Grand Rapids: 0.0F Saginaw: +0.3F Lansing: +0.3F Alpena: +0.4F Muskegan: +1.0F Ohio Dayton: -2.9F Wilmington: -2.8F Cincinatti: -2.0F Youngstown: -1.9F Columbus: -1.4F Mansfield: -1.4F Toledo: -0.8F Cleveland: -0.9F Akron: -0.2F Indiana: Evansville: -1.4F Indianapolis: -1.1F Fort Wayne: -0.9F South Bend: -0.3F

Ill believe it when I see it. Ive been hearing this for 2 decades now and still nothing close to rival those 1930s-50s heatwaves in terms of frequency, magnitude, and days in the 90s/100s here. In 2023 Detroit didnt eclipse 90° for the first time since 1915. Every single year in the aforementioned decades there was bad heat, some worse than others. Certainly some was dry, but not all. But the ENTIRE point of my post was the fact that there was no AC. Ive been researching the daily newspapers and it wasnt just the occasional deadly heatwave. Each summer in those years had deadly heatwaves with the fatalities often listed in the papers. We know how bad tornadoes are for death, but in the pre-AC days the mere summer temperature was the most deadly aspect of the weather.

If the seasonal models were showing a warm or torch winter there is exactly 0.0% doubt that the same ones so against it being mentioned would be all over it. It always goes without saying that a model should never be taken verbatim, but wed have all these posts about why the models are catching on to something.

Had a rogue storm yesterday. 0.41" fell here. Forecast for the 4th was sunny all week until yesterday morning. This was a slow mover (ann Arbor to DTW corridor) but the only storm in the entire area.

I see what you did there . What a laughable post. Avg Jan temps of 39.5F in cleveland . Only twice have they ever even seen that temp in Jan (1880 & 1932, long ago, so be prepared to be lectured on whats wrong with that data). January and February have been net gains for winter lovers here the past several decades (while Dec has been a net loss). And while its fairly easy for some to just flat out act like the warmer winters/summers pre-1960 didnt exist, its a lot harder to ignore the winters of 2000-2015 and just act like records began in 2016. Because we all remember them. So despite a handful of very mild winters since 2016, still absolutely net gains here for the snowlover. Here is the change in January temperature at every first order site in Michigan and Ohio for their period of record. There is no cherry picking, no leaving out the sites I dont want to use...this is every one for their POR. Every site in OH has grown COLDER except Cleveland. Yes, im aware of site changes and what not. But to assert some magical bump of 15F in avg temp is just wild. MI Grand Rapids: 1894-2025: -0.7F Houghton Lake: 1919-2025: -0.1F Flint: 1921-2025: 0.0F Detroit: 1874-2025: +0.7F Saginaw: 1912-2025: +1.3F Muskegan: 1897-2025: +1.6F Alpena: 1917-2025: +1.6F Sault Ste Marie: 1889-2025: +2.3F Lansing: 1864-2025: +3.5F Marquette 1962-2025: +5.9F OH Dayton: 1894-2025: -3.7F Cincinnati: 1873-2025: -3.0F Youngstown: 1931-2025: -1.9F Wilimington: 1918-2025: -1.8F Toledo: 1874-2025: -1.4F Mansfield: 1917-2025: -1.2F Columbus: 1879-2025: -0.5F Akron: 1888-2025: -0.5F Cleveland: 1871-2025: +0.9F

CANSIPS July update remains hellbent on a cold winter in the north.

Ive been looking into past heatwaves, primarily 1930s-1950s, and its insane to think how horrible it would be to live through that heat with no AC. The heatwaves were very deadly, and even many hospitals didnt have AC til the late 1940s or 1950s.

You imagine correctly lol. 75 would be perfect. I havent even been out yet.

Detroit nearly did this in 1880-82 the other way around. The winter of 1880-81 had a previously untouchable 93.6" followed by a pitiful 13.2" in 1881-82. Both records stood for a while, although now both rank 2nd, behind 2013-14 (94.9") and 1936-37 (12.9"). While both winters of 1881-82 & 1936-37 were pitiful, 1881-82 was much, MUCH warmer, easily the least wintry on record. Side note- there are some discrepancies in some snow data pre-1885 at Detroit. While a good amount of accurate data exists 1874-1885, due to multiple obvious errors and some M data, they dont include 1874-79 in the official record. However, IMO you could extend this to 1885, as there are discrepancies in these years as well. 1880-81 data that I see comes out to 79.4", so unsure where the extra snow comes from (I would need to look at the archaic books at DTX to find out). It would still rank 2nd (3rd is 78.0"), but if 79.4" is the true number, it makes 2013-14's 94.9" even more impressive in that its 15.5" more than 2nd place). Also, 1881-82 comes out to 11.5", which would make that #1, not #2 least snowy. All of those technicalities aside, the number of instances where an unusually low snow season is followed by an unusually heavy one, and vice versa, are multiple. So Ill call it now. Above avg snow for MLI in 2025-26.

Thanks to the last 10 days of the month being the warmest last 10 days of June on record (despite a max of "only" 95), June at Detroit ended up tying with 1994 for 11th warmest June on record. To put it into perspective, as of June 20th, it was ranking 64th coldest.

Well now yes she's older. As I said she's lived there since the late 1970s. Im just going by what she says. I have never been to Texas and have no desire to go. Ive been to Florida several times with no desire to return. Like I said its all personal preference. It had been a very pleasant start to summer but all it took was a 4 day heatwave for me to say I've had enough lol. Give me arctic air anyday.