michsnowfreak

Kind of like some get so excited for (or frustrated for lack of) a Blizzard Warning. Hmmm, a blizzard warning for 50mph winds and 2-4" of snow or a Winter Storm Warning for 8-12" of snow with 30 mph gusts. Which shall I choose

I think this time DTX did a good job forecasting for SE MI. Right now going with 4-6" Oakland, 6-8" Macomb, 3-5" + icing Wayne/Monroe. Still so much model uncertainty with qpf and amount/extent of mixing. What started out as a higher than normal certainty for a storm when this was in the medium range last week has turned into lower than normal certainty for day of. Recent trends show that regardless of what happens during most of the event (re: amounts, amount of mixing on SE side) looks like a few hours of heavy snow, heaviest of the entire event, may end the storm in the early overnight hours. Buckle up and let it snow!

In the past I remember several storms that shouldve been warning and ended up advisory. When I was a kid it meant all the difference in the world. But now that i have access to models, forecast discussions, etc, i honestly dont care what the warning/advisory verbage is. I care about the results lol.

Wasn't Jan 12, 2024 a warning? If not I'd assume Mar 3 2023 was the last

This one has a bit of that "bowling ball" look which can really lead to some fun times.

Unfortunately this sub spreads from Iowa to eastern Ohio. Everyone will not be happy

Some of us like the weaker SE trends

Actually yes, it is a touch SE

Lmao. What fools would pick the NAM. Especially when it's not fully sampled and the NAM injested bad data.

Oops I thought I posted that in the banter/complaint thread, my bad . To be clear...your area was one of the worst so far, and i have NO gripes with people complaining about a shitty winter. And I certainly wasn't implying you. You've had an amazing calm actually with the way your winter has gone. My main irritant is the "it'll never snow here again" type dramatics that some post, even if joking. This is the only place a weather nerd has to go to escape the circus that social media weather pages have become, not to mention normies refreshing the weather app on their phone, calling it the weather channel, and saying matter of factly that their phone ap has already explained the weather lol.

While my area is still in play for a winter storm Wed night and again Saturday, its looking like the Wed storm stands a good chance to drop its heavier snow to my west giving areas like Chicago, who have had a shittier winter than here, a bigger snowstorm than we have seen yet this season. Its the weather and it does what it wants, but this is why I get so annoyed at the posts where some act like the pattern will never change, a storm will never hit their area, season futility talk in January, etc etc. Just not how weather works, and its proven time and time again.

2-3" of snow followed by some ice would be ok I guess, but I definitely want all snow. We currently have an inch of sandy textured snow on the rock hard frozen ground. So if we got at least a few inches followed by ice it would be a pretty solid base. But regardless...always root for the white gold.

Saturdays system seems more W to E whereas Wednesdays is more SW to NE. What kind of effect will the first storm have on the second?

Where do you see that? Literally the warmest most outlandish solution would have Detroit hit like 33-34 for a few hours.

Ill be pissed if we get an ice storm. The models will continue to waffle until it is fully sampled tomorrow (and even then, who knows). Every storm is unique so theres literally no telling what will happen.

Not happy with the ice threat. Though an important piece has not been sampled and will not be sampled until tomorrow afternoon per DTX. I think the chance of cold rain is very minimal.

Could be the case. The smaller lakes are thick with ice.

Sounds like an overperformer?

Very nice! I'm jealous.

These are amazing. Where does the 1830s-1860s data come from?

Ended up being a very dense sugary snow here with a bit of snow pellets before the snow and freezing drizzle after the snow. Picked up 1.2" here bringing season total to date to 16.8". DTW had 1.1", season to date 16.2". Season of pennies and nickels and dimes.

The excitement of expecting 5-8". The disgust at only possibly getting 1" The relief of getting 3". All in the same storm. Gotta love models.

Ensembles are absolutely lit up for the next few weeks. This is where the ceiling is raised. January with it's frequent flakes but dry cold got a pass because it was at least wintry and white and was clearly not a stormy pattern. But the coming weeks look like lots of action.

Snow should be moving in here shortly!

We are on the same page in that we both love winter. We are not on the same page in expecting a climatology that has never existed. 2013-14 wasn't just a good winter. It was an extraordinary, historic, epic winter here. Funny thing about 2014-15 is that snowfall overall wasn't impressive but the cold and snowdepth was. In fact. The snow depth was so impressive that it placed winter in #2 of your SDD category (2013-14 blew away #1 and it wasn't even close). Since then we have had some good winters (2017-18, 2020-21) and some great individual months and storms, though the historic streak of 2007-15 certainly has ended. But all winters since 2015 have certainly not been horrible here. Last but not least. It's been a very unlucky winter in Chicago. There's been plentiful cold but it's been so dry. I dont expect you to like it but theres nothing you can do about the weather. While it's been lackluster in Detroit too, we've had a more beavis-tolerant winter. Snow was on the ground most of January.