michsnowfreak

There are plenty of aspects of our weather that are cyclical.

Yup. Weather is and always will be cyclical. New York city ended a historic snow drought this year (in a resounding way) but the way some talked prior to January they acted like it would never snow again in nyc. What got lost though is thst that snow drought came on the heals of record snowy 2010s. With me knowing Detroits climate inside and out, I can assure you that everything goes in cycles. We are not the feast or famine climate of the east coast, but there are still many intra-winter trends that go thru the cycles.

Quick burst of snow and blowing snow moved through late in the evening, depositing a quick 0.6" both here and DTW. Season to date 39.8" my backyard, 38.8" DTW.

It seemed that way to me too. And I don't even pay close attention. Seems like during several of our synoptic snowfalls here Chicago backed in with LES.

The Northeast has been in a multi year snow drought. They've not had 3+ feet in consecutive years. Plus, even if they get a noreaster next year, one with those amounts (even though confined to the immediate coast) seem unlikely.

The winter here so far has had below avg precip, slightly above avg snowfall, solidly below avg temps and above avg snowcover. It was a really good winter but without any big storms (biggest to date 6.2") and shockingly dry for a nina (fortunately nearly all meaningful precip has been snow). Winter wasted no time getting going in late November, but the longstanding snowpack melted in a thaw earlier this week. Winter once again showed that enso is just one piece of the puzzle. With each passing winter we learn more and more how detailed outlooks like yours prove far more valuable thsn the repetitious "el nino" or "la nina" national outlook maps always issued. Regarding the east coast snow, especially in areas that are feast/famine, they saw a feast after multiple years of famine. Hopefully this will put to rest some of the nonsense talk by some that NYC was a spiraling lost cause from which they'd never return. Cc does not stop local weather conditions from their normal ebb and flow around climo.

Some potential next Sunday-Monday timeframe. But keep the discussion in here. NO NEW THREADS

Since Jan 1st Detroit has only seen 1.77" precip (and 21.4" snow). Its much better than QC but its shockingly below avg for a La Nina. Fortunately its been nearly all snow except for a few meager lgt rain spurts.

This one not just went south, the snow portion really withered away. Model reliability is just not there right now.

TOL is located about 20 miles SW of actual Toledo in Swanton, OH.

We do get big storms here as well. Its not all nickels and dimes. The 2010s saw the most 6"+ storms on record for Detroit, and several 10"+ storms too. Were definitely due for a good one (last 7"+ storm now 4 years ago) but a regression after the 2010s was anticipated. Snow climo always ebbs and flows but when you see something that really out you know it'll correct itself a bit. NYC and BOS also had a record snowy stretch in the 2000s/10s then a record drought the last decade or so (especially nyc).

Imagine what it was like in the pre model days. There were no exhilarating good busts, no demoralizing bad busts....every day was a crapshoot.

Not even close. East coast storms and rumors of storms bust all the type.

Back in the day (oh God im sounding so old).....the boards were more full than they are now. And there was always an odd fixation with the east coast. But it was ONLY when they would get a noreaster. Its one thing to be interested in a storm, but the fixation was lingering, even when a majority of the time they would not see winter weather. All around winter is superior here, the ceiling for storm potential superior there. Should be easy to understand.

You know who im talking about too

The fixation on the east coast is wild because it's so one sided. 80% of their winters are zzzz. In fact....they just had a historic snow drought so a historic storm is a perfect middle finger to a few on the main weather forum who acted like it would never snow in NYC again. Feast and famine climate will get the occasional feast.

Id kill to be on long Island right now but the feast or famine climate of the east coast is a hard pass for me. Our (SE MI) winters are far superior to theirs. I've mentioned i have a snowlover friend on long Island. We talk several days a week for the past 10 years. He says our winters are like a good solid marriage/relationship and theres are like a hot one night stand.

Picked up 1.7" of snow overnight and this morning however over half of it has melted on the ground (but still clinging to the conifers) despite temps hovering just below freezing and flurries continuing. With the winter snowpack just having melted several days ago, this is the first time all season weve seen "relatively warm ground" and "sun angle" come into play.

Snowcover and snowstorm climo seems similar at Detroit and Des Moines tho Detroit averages several more inches of snow

The cpc normally forecasts too warm. Still running below avg here.

Pouring rain turned to beautiful snow here in the U.P.

Chicago also experienced the first time Nov, Dec, and Jan had above avg snow since the 1970s. Might as well go low in Feb then get a big march snowstorm

BTW. You'll be happy to know the models suck everywhere. It's pouring in the U.P. and a few days ago this looked like an all snowstorm. The rain should turn to snow this afternoon.

Central Iowa didnt get 15"...but again Des Moines was due. Now let's get @cyclone77ssomething

Theres nothing here. But the snow literally just melted. And if theres anything popping up in the wild after a winter dominated by well below avg temps...something smells funny. But near the heat of a home its not uncommon to see crocuses by mid to late Feb.