michsnowfreak

Another interesting thing to add...since the 15-16 super nino, while the winters have been mild, (and it was made even more annoying by the record snowy stretch that it just followed), we have set a slew of early and late season snow records/quirks: ~cold/snowy Novembers ~largest Nov snowstorm on record (Nov 11, 2019) ~most consecutive days in a row with May snow (5) May 8-12, 2020 ~3 consecutive years (2020, 2021, 2022) saw a snowstorm between April 17-21 drop 2-6" on the area ~snowiest Halloween on record (2023) That's just Detroit. You see the snowgasm south Buffalo has been enjoying. And there have been a few very impressive record arctic shots as well, showing the cold is there. The thing is, warming climate or not, the snow season is very long from 1st to last flake. And we all can use the added moisture to our benefit IF/WHEN the pattern works out. And this goes for you too. It's a different climate but don't think for one second that an absolutely massive moisture laden bomb can't bury NYC in feet of snow. Just a decade ago everyone was having snowy winter after snowy winter. That's not that long ago. There are many factors at play, including enso and changes in climate, but the overall hostile nature of the pattern, especially for the east coast, doesn't get nearly enough credit for whats happened in recent winters imo. If below zero temps and -30° to -40° wind chills can pop in for a visit during one of the warmest winters on record (see Jan 2024), the east coast can get a good snow season. Pattern just needs to shake up.

Again, Im aware. Never said it wasnt a warm stretch. I merely said I was going by decade to decade, not intra-decade stretches. It really has been 5 very mild winters here...the other 4 were basically close to normal (2017-18 was colder than avg). A very interesting fact - during this 9 year warm stretch, avg snowfall at Detroit was 40.1". Thats only 5" below the modern day avg, and basically exactly avg for the 20th century. # of annual 1"+ snowcover days, however, averaged 40 during this stretch, which is 10 days below both the modern & longterm avg. (the prior 8 years, which would be 2007-08 thru 2014-15, averaged 58.3" & 61 days of 1"+ snowcover, both well above avg. Without diving into anymore stats, basically I have come to the conclusion that the increase in precip is an absolute positive for our winter climate. Warmer winters are yielding more snow than they used to (snowcover suffers far more than snowfall), and avg to colder than avg winters also yield more snow. (Of course this is all "on average", there will be low years). Even the warmest winters can yield respectable snowfall amounts IF the patterns are right. This is why I do not focus as much on temps as you guys do, I am more worried about avoiding the real torch winters like 2023-24, but winter at +2F can be as good or better than a winter of -2F when it comes down to snow. (Of course, I personally always root on cold lol).

That was always my impression of the east coast. Completely different that the Great Lakes.

Exactly. We never saw that before either (on record at least), and this is an expected regression. How far it goes and if it continues into the next decade will be very telling. Not sure how many cities had their snowiest decade on record in the 2010s, but just from this board, I can confirm Detroit and New York City both did, along with a slew of others (would be too much work to do each individual city, but the trend is clear). And yes the drought out west was end of the world stuff. A relatives husband is from Oakland, CA and I remember him talking about how horrible the drought was and it seemed like it would never end (all while we were living high off the snow hog).

I was referring to individual decades, not intra-decade stretches. 1990s- 29.2F 1950s- 28.6F 1930s- 28.3F 2010s- 28.2F 2000s- 27.7F 1880s- 27.6F 1940s- 27.0F 1890s- 26.5F 1960s- 26.2F 1980s- 25.9F 1920s- 25.8F 1910s- 25.5F 1900s- 24.9F 1970s- 24.8F

Despite the cold winters of 1993-94 & 1995-96, fun fact, at Detroit the 1990s remain the warmest winters decade so far (unsure is 2020s will surpass them since they are only half over). In any event 1995-96 was the classic, albeit rare, example of much less wintry climates having a much more wintry winter than here!

I was 12, almost 13 in 1995-96, and it was my first winter religiously measuring snow (2024-25 will be season #30). I can still remember watching TWC and seeing the east coast constantly get slammed while it was a cold, dry, unexciting winter here. Definitely one I would never want to repeat. My top 5 over the last 30 years would be (ranked in terms of overall subjective severity, not just snow): 2013-14 2010-11 2007-08 2014-15 2008-09 If I had to rank the 5 most severe winters since 1870, the ranking here would be: 2013-14 1880-81 1981-82 1874-75 1903-04 2013-14 was the most severe winter on record for southern MI. It's easy to confirm that it's not happening again. There are severe winters...then there's 2013-14.

Oh I know. I have always found it helpful to pay attention to BOTH the midwest and northeast because sometimes I can be on the "eastern fringe" of a midwest pattern or the "western fringe" of a northeast pattern. And to clarify, when I say Im seeing bias, its not a knock on any one person, its just how I see it. I see this thread (bias posts included) filled with people with lots of knowledge. Weather forums over the years (and I go back to WWBB circa 2002) have really changed. They have certainly lost a TON of traffic since the heyday, but they actually seemed to have increased in knowledgable posters.

I'm seeing a lot of warm bias in this thread. Not calling anyone out or anything. But even with the acknowledgment that no two winters are identical, thus no analog is perfect, I'm seeing some analogs that have produced good winters immediately get dismissed by some. And make no mistake, the internet is filled with plenty of cold bias too. Just my observation, and I feel you, @raindancewx and @GaWx are very balanced. You brought up how seasonal guidance will never show some insane anomalies, which is so true. But on the other hand, we know that CPC will never go cold in a seasonal forecasts (they will in a weekly or monthly if the signal is strong). Go look back at some of their forecasts for cold winters. It's hilarious.

Happy 1st day of the most colorful month of the year!

Very interesting. I wonder if it's a fluke though? I'd have to look into my data further.

October is a month that I dont mind boring weather, since its the most colorful month of the year!

I ended up with 1.42", with 0.72" of that thanks to Helene. Still dry, but nothing earth shattering.

I may be misreading or you may be posting in jest, but the recent years Oct/Nov weather has in no way been an indicator of the coming winter.

To clarify, that is number of consecutive days with a high of 65F+, not number in total.

Its a lot to read but i get the gist. It will take a long time to actually see if it comes to fruition, but this is absolutely a good thing for snow lovers in the Great Lakes. It would likely increase it all (snow, rain, and ice events).

The 1990s (and I think 1980s) were like the heyday for clippers. But we relied TOO much on them here, which is why 2000s and 2010s winters were much snowier than the 1990s here. As an outsider to the east coast, my general impression of your climate is certainly the "feast of famine" you describe has become more common in recent years.

I agree. I have just noticed that for some reason, the really mild winters here seem to have more punch for snowfall than winters with those same temps had decades ago. I always prefer colder because its automatically better for snowcover and more snow here, but warmer is not ever really a death sentence for seasonal snowfall here (depending on the pattern).

I'll hold out hope to see that someday. This more moisture thing is a good thing for northern climes imo.

I'll take both. Lol.

Honestly though, I think that is realistic for a NYC type climate. Big storms can absolutely make or break a winter. That doesnt happen in the Great Lakes. NYC can go weeks and weeks without a flake then get a 2 foot storm. A friend of mine on Long Island has seen a 30" storm and also a winter where the grass tips werent covered once. Basically impossible here. In my 41 years on this earth so far, Detroit has not had a snowstorm over 17" or a season total under 23". Certainly, a storm can really stand out in a winter, especially when accompanied or immediately followed by brutal winds or brutal cold, but the duration of cold and snow depth/snowcover seems to be one of the main metrics for how severe a winter is. We have seen mild winters generally considered "easy" that finished with near or even above avg snow.

Another good one for me. Id take that blend in a heartbeat. Ive also noticed, I think @roardog brought it up too, but this September has been strikingly similar to September 2017 here. Dry, and unseasonable chilly the first third of the month followed by a long period of unseasonable warmth the remainder of the month.

We see so many analogs thrown around. Most could probably have an argument made for or against them. Don't get me wrong, I'm rooting on another 2007-08.

1983-84 was a weak nina, as this year is forecast to be. I don't see how it's such a stretch.

In addition to the large dose of caution (as ALL things in weather forecasting should be taken with), my understanding of the NAO has really changed over the years. For those of us north of 40N, a +NAO is just as good, if not better, than a -NAO for actual storms and such.