michsnowfreak

Idk about record low snowcover on Christmas in the lower 48. The lowest I found was 1957. There have been lots of low years. Unfortunately Mother Nature doesn't always follow a Christmas storybook.

I LOVE seeing someone else who gets Christmas trees that are NOT sheared. Every year both myself and my mom cut down trees that are left in their natural untouched state. I love the old-fashioned look to an unsheared tree, and decorate it to look vintage as well.

Excellent post. The mild winters of the 1950s rarely get talked about and on the flip side the cold 1970s are often treated as what was the norm. You will always have your naysayers who will try and twist things, cherry pick data of a specific station, etc, but in reality it's very clear cut. Winters of the 1930s-1950s were very anemic in this region compared to our overall climate. It grew much colder in the 1960s but was also dry, which led to more feast or famine in snowfall. Then the 1970s were the golden child of winters (and the embellishments of these have grown since). Cold lingered in the 80s, then much milder winters hit in the 90s (similar to the 50s) before the 2000s-10s saw unusually heavy snowfall. This is the average annual DJF temp and seasonal snowfall thru the decades at Detroit. 1930s-60s stick out like a sore thumb for snow. And for temps, the 1950s are 2nd only to 1990s for mild winters. 1880s- 27.6°, 43.1" 1890s- 26.5°, 42.6" 1900s- 24.9°, 46.3" 1910s- 25.5°, 39.7" 1920s- 25.8°, 46.1" 1930s- 28.3°, 32.9" 1940s- 27.0°, 27.8" 1950s- 28.6°, 37.8" 1960s- 26.2°, 31.8" 1970s- 24.8°, 45.6" 1980s- 25.9°, 45.2" 1990s- 29.2°, 37.2" 2000s- 27.7°, 45.3" 2010s- 28.2°, 49.9"

With all of the model changes, ups and downs, and typical nina climo (even tho nina underperformed), variability and up and down has been my thoughts all along. Any remote guess of when the ups and downs will be....I'll pass on making that guess haha. But the key is variability. Anyone expecting all cold or all mild will be disappointed.

Yeah I think it was a steady light rain here. Had 0.47". Washed away the snow. I'm still liking January a lot, but first we have some up and down weather on the way.

Been waiting for your annual copy and paste rant that Chicago doesnt annual get a repeat of their most severe 1970s winters on record. At no point in Chicago's climate history has the avg low on 12/31 ever been 13°. In fact, the 1951-80 avg winter temp is just 1.1° colder than 1991-2020, not 8° lmao. 1991-2020: 27.1 1981-2010: 26.3 1971-2000: 25.9 1961-1990: 25.1 1951-1980: 26.0 1941-1970: 26.8 1931-1960: 28.0 1921-1950: 28.1 1911-1940: 27.9 1901-1930: 26.8 Avg low on 12/31 in chicago 1991-2020: 21 1981-2010: 21 1971-2000: 19 1961-1990: 17 1951-1980: 19 1941-1970: 19 1931-1960: 23 1921-1950: 22 1911-1940: 22 1901-1930: 21

Fair enough. Though as you get into peak winter climo, which for many is mid Jan to early Feb, I have to imagine that for the "warmer" climates of the east coast and mid-Atlantic it takes less "to go right" for it to snow than it would in November or April.

Chicago's late first freeze actually tied for 4th latest on record.

Lol we haven't exactly had any pouring rain. It's gross out tho. Cold light rain at 34°. And at least there's been some light snowcover and bitter cold for the Christmas season. Way better than torch imo, tho I know you disagree.

I haven't seen the actual up to date numbers, but I'd imagine the water temps have really cooled off with the cold weather. Streams and ponds and smaller lakes are already iced over even in southeast Michigan. So surface temps will likely start to more closely link with 850s.

It's hilarious really. Not to mention we will find the most random tweets in this thread from people many have never heard of. "If you want the best chance for snow in January...". Um, January is the coldest month of the year. He talks like its early November. Places north of 40N can have average snowfall with well above avg temps in Jan. It's about storm track and how active the pattern gets. MJO is overrated, especially forecasting it.

https://x.com/webberweather/status/1867696309160849438?s=46 Lots of variability and wild swings the key takeaway imo

Lots of variability and wild swings the key takeaway

I thought you meant in a row sorry. Although 2020 was very cold btw.

If Christmas 2024 is warm, that will be 2 years lol. 2022 was frigid

Regardless of how cold it gets in January, there will be a warm up around/after Christmas following the next cold snap.

The current DTW Dec avg is 31.3°, not sure where you see 33.3°. The la ninas since 2017 have had more paltry Dec snowfall than usual, but also snowier mid to late winter than usual. Could be cyclical, not sure.

They are somewhat similar but I wouldn't say basically the same. Snow is much deeper in Canada and the temps couldn't be more different the last 2 decembers. The lack of snow in many locations is due to how dry it has been the last several weeks.

Agree. And I see nothing wrong with their thinking. There is absolutely no sign of a torch (the word torch has really taken on a new meaning from its origins of record warmth, now some people call +2 a torch lol). I really think this will continue to be an up and down winter. Im just waiting for it to become more active.

Averages are updated to 1991-2020. And wow I didnt realize it was running that mild further east. Its been very underwhelming synoptic wise - nearly all of our 4.0" so far has been lake effect or lake enhanced. Call it a quirk or call it whatever, but the low snow Decembers have been very oddly persistant since 2018 for most of the region (with a few small exceptions). Again tho, we have balanced it out and then some with snowy Jan and/or Febs. Weird, but thats the weather.

To each their own, Id take cold and dry over mild. The weather will likely continue up and down, hopefully it gets more active.

BAMwx is not even close to JB. Even if they may have a cold preference/bias, they explain things and their thinking. Its no different than the warm biased mets out there.

DTW got down to 10°. I thought this looked cool out my office window, the steam hitting the sun

This December so far has been cold and dry tho, very different from the mild ones. More than likely, the overall surplus of blah Decembers is probably just a run of bad luck, much like the recent overall run of good luck with Februarys.

There's been hardly any synoptic snow anywhere yet this winter, so I wouldn't call anything a cycle really. This young winter has been all about LES, and that's something Chicago rarely cashes in on. Period of 19th - 22nd may have something, but wayyy too early to do anything other than speculate.