michsnowfreak

Wild swings with the final cumulative outcome being above avg precip/snow would be a pretty typical La Nina Michigan winter.

Usually that happens in late August, but a bit more color is showing here than usual.

It would take too much research to figure out that since a trace is the same as 0 when running computed streaks in xmacis. But the record for longest stretch without measurable precip, not just for Aug-Sept but the entire period of record, is 39 days from August 20 - September 27, 1908. A trace fell on 2 of those days (Sept 1 & 24).

No doubt it's been a warm year. It was just an observation I had, locally, that for the 2nd summer in a row, we had a lot of fantasy range heat that never materialized.

It seems the weeklies have been warm in the extended range whether it ends up that way or not (this summer).

Another cool morning. 53 at DTW but 40 ann Arbor, 44 white lake, 45 monroe

The Feb 2018 map is a more extreme example of the CPC forecast for this winter and sure enough Feb 18 saw a parade of winter storms in this area before the late month torch.

Big wintertime cold is a given if a pattern works out. Anyone that doesnt realize that doesnt know the difference between weather and climate. A few things Ive noted about winter time cold locally. ~The frequency of winters with below zero temps is relatively steady. About 75% of winter see below zero temps at Detroit, and near 100% in rural areas of SE MI ~From 2009-2019, 4 different winters saw temps of -13F or colder at DTW. Prior to 2009, the period of 4 years with those temps spanned 1982-2008. ~The coldest winter temps, which used to almost always happen on clear, calm cold snowcovered nights, now sometimes come with howling arctic winds creating much lower wind chills. Ive had wind chills of -30F or colder in 2014, 2015, 2019, 2022, 2024. Prior to 2014, Id guess 1994 was the last time it felt that cold.

A chilly 51F at DTW this morning, but outlying areas well in the 40s, including 44F in Monroe & 43F White Lake. The cold spot was Ann Arbor at 38F.

Awesome data as always!

Ive seen 2007-08 thrown around quite a bit. Fantastic winter in the Great Lakes. Temps near avg overall (colder Dec/Feb, warmer Jan) and several snowpack crushing thaws, even a few winter torches (see early Jan 2008) but overall a nonstop parade of snowstorms. Snowfall that winter totaled: 71.7" in Detroit, 82.8" in Flint, 60.3" in Chicago, & 99.1" in Milwaukee. Also, I went up to Paradise, MI (on Lake Superior in the UP) the first week of March, and saw to this day what is the deepest snowpack of my lifetime.

As we wind down met summer with windows open and fresh air most of this week, I am really shocked how comfortable summer was. This is now two summers in a row with hardly any real heat, outside of the mid June heatwave this year (and that, too, underperformed). Impressive considering the strong signal for a broiling summer this year.

Open windows this week. Cool fresh breeze. Love it as summer winds down!

Speaking of 2001-02. Check out that snowfall total at Marquette.

One of the great things about living in the Great Lakes is that whether it's a warm or cold winter snow, a good or a bad pattern, there's always the lakes to fall back on.

I wouldn't imagine that either. But with nina, especially nino to nina climo, I was expecting a sweltering hot summer. But july and August have been very pleasant overall.

One memory I'll never forget was Jan 31, 2002. After 9.5" of snow followed by heavy freezing rain knocked out everyone's power (storm total precip around 3"), seeing the white landscape and crystal-draped trees against the night sky with zero light pollution.

2013-2015 were easily my favorite back to back winters as well though, and lake effect was at a minimum with frozen lakes. 2013-14 defied the odds almost in its combination of persistent cold, snow & snowpack, easily earning the title of most severe winter on record. 2014-15 wasn't particularly snowy but it had the brutal cold and more deep snowpack. I'd rank 2007-08 & 2008-09 as 2nd for favorite back to back winters.

The December 2001 lake effect event was definitely how that winter climbed so high onto Buffalos snowy list, but there were still some good synoptic winter storms. A massive winter storm hit much of the country from Jan 29-Feb 2 with a crippling combo of ice and snow. And there were other storms in Feb/Mar as well. Definitely not a winter I'd like to repeat overall but it had some fun times.

The December 2022 cold snap was a few days of arctic cold, blowing snow and howling winds centered right around Christmas. The blizzard that was initially forecast was extremely underwhelming in terms of snowfall amounts, about 2 inches of sugary sand fell here but it was essentially a ground blizzard all day causing lots of drifts. Wind chills were around -30° here. A much calmer snowfall blanked a fresh 2.5" over the drifty snow on Christmas morning for a postcard Christmas scene. But no one really got buried. I think that was the storm that originally had a thread a ways out for a massive east coast blizzard.

I have had a feeling for a while that December may be one of the best months of the winter this year, at least here. Its been a while since December was THE month of the winter, and its also common to happen in Ninas. Doesnt always happen that way of course (1998-99, a terrible Dec and excellent Jan). One thing about a Nina is that most of them feature one unusually snowy month.

Definitely not a favorite winter of mine, but wasnt terrible by any means here. Dec 2022 had the huge arctic blast at Christmas time. And March was snowy.

Thank you. But my apologies, I meant what does "minus" mean? They are still an analog just not as good of one? I used to think minus meant you wouldnt want to include it in a dataset lol.

Even in 01-02 we had some good storms. 11-12 was definitely the dud, but still had multiple snowfalls. Ninas in general are favorable here. They dont all work out great, but youd want a Nina over Nino any day in this area.

What are the minus analogs?