michsnowfreak

Definitely expecting a mild October. I always prefer cold, but as long as we avoid record warmth, October is a month I don't mind a milder departure because the temps are still comfortable to cool most days, and lots of sun to enjoy the Fall colors. Warm October, cold December is a very common nina occurrence, which is why I'm really Interested to see how December will play out.

I think the mid Feb 1958 event was a widespread storm that fringed us up here and also grazed you, with deep enough cold, in the south, and slammed the east. The strong nino '57-58 winter had its signature mild December but then a frigid Feb. This is where we go from rainy and mild to cold suppression. Seems like no matter which playbook a strong nino follows, it's a surefire way to see a shitty snow season in the southern Great Lakes. BY FAR the worst of any other enso configuration. We still get snow, it's impossible not to, but while most other patterns find ways to give us snow, even when other places suffer, strong ninos do the opposite, repelling everything but scraps and maybe a good spring snowstorm.

1957-58 SUCKED here. If i was alive Id have been furious . Detroit finished the season with 18.0" of snow (still stands as 9th least snowy winter on record). The east was having all the fun. After a rainy December the rest of winter was very dry. It holds the record for the lowest "max" 24-hour snowfall (1.8", set several times that winter). No other winter before or since has failed to receive 2.0" of snow in 24 hours. Two stories of that season- my grandparents wedding was Feb 15, 1958. I heard there was a "blizzard" on her wedding day. Pics showed what look like a few inches of snow. Grandma insisted she remembered a blizzard (you know how that goes lol). Sure enough, records showed the 1.8" snowfall on Feb 15/16 here, but on their honeymoon in Niagra Falls, there were several feet on the ground per pics. The other story, my mom was born March 20, 1958. One of the newspaper headlines that day(cold and flurries here, a trace) was about a massive snowstorm burying the east. And how we were "lucky" the storm bypassed us.

When I was younger, I always read my sisters Little House on the Prairie Book "The Long Winter". That book took place on the Dakota prairie during the winter of 1880-81. The next story in the series (idk remember the name) would have taken place during 1881-82. Although the focus of that book was not on the weather as The Long Winter was, there were some blurbs about how they were trying to get extra precautions in place (autumn 1881) because of the disasters the hard winter the year before caused, and instead the winter ended up being springlike and "open".

I have no idea what any indicies were, but I do know that there were absolutely WILD swings from 1874-1882. In that 8 winter stretch, winters alternated from very warm to very cold each year. Not talking slightly above or below avg, im talking huge departures. Ive always been fascinated by what could have caused that. 150 years later, the winters STILL stand (at Detroit) as: 1874-75: 2nd coldest 1875-76: 19th warmest 1876-77: 19th coldest 1877-78: 16th warmest 1878-79: 14th coldest 1879-80: 12th warmest 1880-81: 13th coldest 1881-82: 1st warmest

Anyone to say we are going into "an exact" weather pattern of "x" years is a downright fool. However I wouldnt necessarily say an "epic fail". Winters circa 2004-2015 definitely had 1970s vibes, while winters since 2016 have had 1950s vibes. And by vibes, i mean similarities, not replicas.

All seasonal forecasts should be taken with a grain of salt. Cansips and CFS are clearly colder than the Euro for this winter for the northern tier.

The cold November/mild December pattern has been very common the last decade. Snow-wise, December has been BY FAR the month that has suffered the most the past decade, even though we have lucked out with several white Christmases. I would LOVE a cold November AND December. We are definitely due for a front loaded, not back loaded winter. Its staggering to see that since 2014, 6 of the 10 years saw November outsnow December at Detroit. For reference, average snowfall in November is 1.9" & December 8.9". 2014: Nov- 4.0", Dec- 0.1" 2015: Nov- 6.2", Dec- 1.3" 2018: Nov- 6.7", Dec- 0.5" 2019: Nov- 9.5", Dec- 2.7" 2021: Nov- 7.1", Dec- 3.3" 2023: Oct- 0.2", Nov- 2.2", Dec- 0.1"

That was pretty cool actually

A milder than avg autumn is very nina like.

So below normal temps the first half of September are "typical up and down" but above normal temps the 2nd half are warmth taking over?

It was mostly pleasant because once again, extreme heat was extremely limited despite widespread expectations of a very hot summer. July thru mid August, the hottest time of the year, was slightly cooler than normal. And again...it was expected to be torrid. A mid June heatwave was gross....and there was also heat at the end of August which made that month slightly warmer than normal instead of cooler. But with the nina state of the atmosphere and a tendency for hot summers the last 15 years, I would have expected at minimum a top 10 hottest summer. Also, continuously rising min temps keep raising the summers avg, not max temps. Max temps are what do me in personally, and we don't get nearly as many "extreme" hot days as back in the day.

This is very interesting. Those years of low ACE were ALL decent to good to great winters here with the HUGE exception of 1931-32.

What's the best JMA link?

I am not too familiar with the WPO but obviously it makes a difference (there are SO many indicies, I used to think the only ones were the NAO and MJO lol). This map is a good example of the battleground that a temp contrast can do. Minneapolis had one of their snowiest winters on record in 2022-23, being the battleground between warm & cold. We did ok in 2022-23 despite the warmth, finishing only slightly below avg in snowfall (and at that, snowfall was MUCH wetter and lower ratio than normal, so the precip was there). This is another example, and you have pointed it out as well, that regardless of warmth, there is a certain latitudinal line where once you go north of it, if you get the precip, you will get the snow. Snowcover often suffers far more than actual snowfall in northern locations in warm winters. Another thing, you give the atmosphere the temp contrasts of a cold north and a warm south, and add in an active storm track, then you will have some great winter storms. Though I know we look better here in the great lakes than the east, I just dont think it will be as bad on the east coast as some make it sound.

These looks like pretty typical la nina forecasts to me. Colder than avg in the already cold north and warner than avg in the already warm south.

Thanks! Even nailing the pattern I'd never have expected so much snow, wind, amd bitter cold as we had. The jma link you sent stops in April 2024.

Incredible weather outside. The crispness of early Fall will definitely be in the air layer this week!

1973-74 was a good winter here. 2013-14 was the most severe winter in recorded history and i doubt ill ever see that again.

Normals change every 10 years though, so if your climate has consistently warmed, it'll show in the next set of normals. Winters won't always be warmer and less snowy than normal, because then normal wouldn't be normal. Yes, the past 10 years have seen mild winters dominate. But the prior 10 years saw quite a bit of cold. Weather also tends to go in cycles regardless of whst is "normal".

Fair points. Definitely on a national scale March 2012 was insane. Even more crazy considering it was surrounded by harsh winters both before and after (not the mild stretch weve been in recently), and March is a winter month for many. One correction I do have to make on Feb 2015. While it was indeed Detroits 2nd coldest Feb on record, it was the coldest since 1875. It beat out the old 2nd place by 0.7F. Feb of 1875 was unprecedentedly cold. Many areas in the Great Lakes/Upper Midwest (that had records go that far back) had 1875 & 2024 as either 1 & 2 or 2 & 1. For the many stations that dont go to the 1870s, then Feb 2015 takes home the top spot. You mentioned 1882, assumably in error, as that is actually Detroits WARMEST Feb on record. Detroits coldest Febs: 1875: 12.2F 2015: 14.1F 1934: 14.8F 1936: 16.0F 1904: 16.1F

I read this post a bit Tip like lol. Not sure exactly what you're saying? Meaning nickels and dimes or mix events on the coast? Obviously we thrive at nickels and dimes in the Lakes, but that's what makes winter winter to me. We get good storms, but the number of smaller events is usually what makes or breaks a season.

Mid November, Christmas week, late January to early Feb and the first half of March were wintry. Definitely had a few fun storms. But the rest of 22-23 sucked. The scenery the last third of Jan was gorgeous because of wet snowstorms on Jan 22 & 25. But when you're getting wet snow in the dead of winter up here, you know it's a mild pattern.

That is true. There are so many fascinating features to the weather, that its really hard to keep them straight. One thing I have ALWAYS said since Ive been on the weather boards, is that in eastern Michigan, we are kinda split between "whats good for the midwest" or "whats good for the east". I kick myself for not saving this list someone made years ago...it was snowstorms and what the NAO was. Many of them did, in fact, come with a +NAO. I typically associate -NAO with cold, clippers, and suppression. It can be a good thing if theres a good snowpack and a clipper parade, but it can suck if its cold and dry with everything going way south.

It was. In fact, thats another example of why we are due in December, because the historical frequency of very wintry Decembers in a Nina has not reared its head as much the last few ninas. After back to back good Decembers in 2016 & 2017, its been December blahs since. We have had abnormally snowy Novembers, Januarys, Februarys, Marchs, & Aprils. Its Decembers turn. The Christmas cold snap did make Dec 2022 show as just a slightly mild month though. If more of the west cold dumped further east, it couldve easily finished colder. STATION: DETROIT MI MONTH: DECEMBER YEAR: 2022 LATITUDE: 42 13 N LONGITUDE: 83 20 W TEMPERATURE IN F: :PCPN: SNOW: WIND :SUNSHINE: SKY :PK WND ================================================================================ 1 2 3 4 5 6A 6B 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 12Z AVG MX 2MIN DY MAX MIN AVG DEP HDD CDD WTR SNW DPTH SPD SPD DIR MIN PSBL S-S WX SPD DR ================================================================================ 1 39 27 33 -3 32 0 T T 0 12.1 28 280 M M 8 36 280 2 53 31 42 7 23 0 0.00 0.0 0 13.8 35 210 M M 10 48 220 3 53 26 40 5 25 0 0.03 0.0 0 18.6 39 280 M M 8 1 58 290 4 37 20 29 -5 36 0 0.00 0.0 0 11.3 18 230 M M 2 24 220 5 45 25 35 1 30 0 0.00 0.0 0 8.9 20 200 M M 7 25 190 6 47 40 44 10 21 0 0.01 0.0 0 3.9 15 140 M M 10 18 19 150 7 47 42 45 11 20 0 0.01 0.0 0 4.2 9 320 M M 10 18 13 330 8 44 34 39 6 26 0 0.00 0.0 0 7.4 13 330 M M 10 16 340 9 38 32 35 2 30 0 T T 0 12.2 22 60 M M 10 29 60 10 37 32 35 2 30 0 T T 0 8.1 16 60 M M 10 23 60 11 41 35 38 6 27 0 T T 0 6.7 12 310 M M 10 18 15 300 12 38 32 35 3 30 0 0.00 0.0 0 6.1 12 60 M M 10 17 40 13 35 30 33 1 32 0 0.00 0.0 0 8.3 15 60 M M 10 23 60 14 41 32 37 5 28 0 0.00 0.0 0 11.7 21 90 M M 9 38 100 15 45 36 41 10 24 0 0.74 0.0 0 11.2 22 90 M M 10 1 36 110 16 36 30 33 2 32 0 T 0.1 0 11.6 22 240 M M 10 1 28 240 17 31 27 29 -2 36 0 T 0.1 T 13.9 21 240 M M 10 27 240 18 28 23 26 -4 39 0 T 0.2 T 15.5 21 260 M M 10 28 250 19 30 24 27 -3 38 0 T T T 9.0 16 280 M M 10 M M 20 35 25 30 0 35 0 0.00 0.0 0 5.6 14 200 M M 8 18 200 21 33 22 28 -2 37 0 0.00 0.0 0 4.1 9 130 M M 8 18 13 100 22 41 30 36 6 29 0 0.25 T 0 6.8 20 290 M M 10 18 26 300 23 34 0 17 -12 48 0 0.11 2.2 1 26.3 35 230 M M 10 19 48 260 24 15 1 8 -21 57 0 0.02 0.3 2 24.9 36 230 M M 10 9 47 230 25 16 12 14 -15 51 0 0.05 2.1 3 15.6 23 220 M M 10 1 29 230 26 22 13 18 -11 47 0 T T 4 10.0 15 220 M M 10 19 220 27 29 19 24 -4 41 0 T T 3 11.2 20 220 M M 10 8 27 220 28 41 29 35 7 30 0 0.00 0.0 3 14.3 24 210 M M 10 32 220 29 53 33 43 15 22 0 0.00 0.0 1 11.5 18 210 M M 9 24 200 30 55 47 51 23 14 0 0.62 0.0 0 11.5 22 220 M M 10 1 28 220 31 47 37 42 14 23 0 0.50 0.0 0 6.5 13 250 M M 10 18 16 300 ================================================================================ SM 1186 846 993 0 2.34 5.0 342.8 M 289