michsnowfreak

I know. Theres no mistaking going from basically the best winter period of record (2007-15) to a warmer regime since. But 17-18, 18-19, 20-21, 21-22 were definitely not "warm" winters here. Again though, dont look into it too much..I was merely referencing it in terms of the Sept to winter correlation, not in terms of analyzing specific anamolies. The NE has definitely ran warmer than their norms than here for whatever reason, not sure if the ocean plays a part or not. Also want to clarify nothing is ever set in stone and there are easily examples that contradict this....but theres more than enough data to support the "trend" of early winter blasts teasing us in the Fall of what will be a sucky Nino winter, and also warm Indian summer breezes during Nina falls before the bottom drops out by December. Obviously we are 2 different climates. Its always baffled me how you guys in much warmer, further south climes root on strong Ninos when that is 1000% the WORST winters (for winter lovers) we get here.

All 9 winters have NOT been warmer than avg in the midwest/upper midwest though.

1961-90 are the coldest (for winter) 30-year period dataset in many areas of the Great Lakes since records began. But I think bluewave missed my point. I only used Canada as an example. I guess I should have been more blunt. Warm Fall/Cold Winter (Nina) and Cold Fall/Warm Winter (Nino) are a common combination in the north, so implying a September pattern of ANY kind as a sign for winter is imo ridiculous.

Dry Falls and Wet (& snowy) winters are pretty common in a Nina or nina-like state, but of course drought is another thing.

Never heard of Noll other than on here, but it's clear by his posts that he is the warm version of a JB type. Just posts ANYTHING hypothetical that implies warmth. Right now it's abnormally warm in Canada and it's very likely Canada will have abnormal cold in winter. Considering in this thread we have dissected not just ENSO but even what enso state the atmosphere is behaving like, it's really out there to equate a September pattern to winter. Especially when northern locations common theme in a nino is chilly Fall, mild winter...and in a Nina is mild Fall, colder winter.

I knew that meant the avg temp ranked lower lol. Columbus avg temp for the period 15th warmest Jun 1 - Sept at 15. Drought would tend to make both the afternoons hotter, and the nights cooler. Id be interested to hear from @buckeye or someone else in the Columbus area if the thermometer seems to run hot for maxes. That happened for years at Ypsilanti (YIP), west of DTW. Its not a first order station so wasnt given priority, but it was finally fixed last year and now runs more in sync with Ann Arbor and DTW. Interesting that Columbus ranked so high. Cincinnati, further south and more in the drought, only ranked as a tie for 23rd warmest high temp Jun 1 - Sept 15, and tied for 41st warmest overall.

I do too. It's the classic nina pattern, regardless of strength. I'm definitely feeling a much snowier winter here in the end (not without its frustrations course). If I'm wrong I'm wrong and I'll admit it.

Yeah patterns are one thing. Temp estimates and especially snowfall estimates are another. Another thing with snowfall estimates. The models love their 10-1 ratios. We usually see quite a bit of powder, but ive never seen more pasty cement snow than in 2022-23. Detroit season total was 37.1", about 83% of normal, but if all the seasons snow fell at a consistent 10-1 ratio it would've been closer to 45-50", about 100-110% of avg. Just another example how not to get caught up in the finer details. Two things I'm confident in: Most confident: regardless of the kind of season it ends up, 1 month will be a wintry standout A little less confident but likely: December will be snowy, very possibly the above mentioned standout month.

That would be an unprecedentedly snowless December here for a La Nina. I don't buy it. As we say, seasonal models need to be taken with a grain of salt anyway, but a seasonal snowfall estimate? We have enough trouble with snow maps during nowcast time, much less an interpretation of snow maps for a season.

If you include 2000, then it's even better. Every single one of those 5 years charts in the top 15 snowiest decembers on record at Detroit, out of 145 years of record. 2000- 3rd snowiest Dec 2005- 11th snowiest Dec 2008- 7th snowiest Dec 2016- 14th snowiest Dec 2017- 5th snowiest Dec

That's a good point. I did look up 2008-09 and it did seem to average colder than normal on the east coast but not nearly as cold as here. And seems the Feb 2018 torch is what made the difference on the east coast for that winter.

I have the last 5 weak ninas as 2005-06, 2008-09, 2016-17, 2017-18, 2022-23. Of those 5, both 2008-09 & 2017-18 were colder than normal here. But what really stands out with that group is a good December.

Always nice when you start to see the early colors pop in preparation for octobers big color show

I dont either. And one thing we are all guilty of, to some extent, is really focusing on anomaly maps, whether its 2m temps, 850 temps, heights, etc. Its easy to get caught up in the red/orange or blue/purple colors on those maps. Everythings relative. Last year was the 4th warmest winter on record at Detroit, and warmest of my lifetime...but the mean temp would have made it 1.3F COLDER than normal in NYC. Canada is cold. When Canada is a "furnace", its still, in all actuality, cold. So if we actually do get below normal cold into Canada during winter, ala traditional La Nina, that is a TON of cold air to work with. Even though the northern tier is favored, those from NYC-south who are ready to write off winter should realize how easily they will have their chances if a piece of the polar vortex breaks off, or even get a good arctic front, etc.

This is very common in nina winters. The anomalous cold in the cold north and anomalous warmth in the warm south creates some great temp contrasts that add fuel to storms.

The October snow thing is a bit of a myth. Or should I say there's no definite correlation historically. Nearly half of Octobers see a trace of snow here, but I think the whole myth thing started with early season measurable snowfalls. A handful of snowy Novembers followed by crap Decembers the past decade haven't helped either. Plus the two snowy Decembers we did see the past decade saw nothing meaningful in Oct/Nov. So its really more a short term trend.

With all the talk of 2007-08 I wish we could find a seasonal snowfall map of the US. The gradient must have been something with the very heavy to record snowfall in the Great Lakes and new England and then crap south of NYC

The NASA model always runs way warmer than the rest and skews the mean. Also lol that Noll talks winter then proceeds to show JFM instead of DJF.

Same here. Detroits earlier measurable snow on record. Some areas had more.

2006 had 0.2" on Oct 12th.

Fwiw dry, mild Falls leading to wet winters are a common Nina theme.

Left the windows open all night with the steady NW breeze..it's now 59 in the house lol.

Several FANTASTIC winters in there for the Lakes! In fact, the only undesirable ones are 2022-23 & 2001-02, but even those had multiple nice snowstorms. But sweet Jesus, 2013-14 x 4!? . That composite gives Detroit an average snowfall of 58.4".

The Euro seasonal makes no sense (at least what I see on weatherbell). It's just a broadbrushed map almost like cpc. The coldest spot in the entire country for DJF is the west coast with an "average" winter and the warmest spot is in the southwest with +2-2.5C. The east coast is +1-1.5C and the southern Great Lakes +1.5-2.0C. Not exactly a blowtorch. The cansips and cfs with much colder to the north and warmer to the south would certainly make more sense in a Nina.

Ninas historically have great Decembers in Michigan. If this December by chance sucks, itll probably be a good February. (One "stand out" month in a Nina is a near given here).