michsnowfreak

Absolutely. Madison to Chicago to Detroit corridor had 60-100" of snow in the non-lake-snowbelt areas in 2007-08. I went to the upper peninsula in Mar 2008 (pic below) and the snow depths were insane. Meanwhile didn't nyc struggle to get 10"? In El ninos on the other hand somehow let the good storms go south despite it being a mild winter.

Absolutely perfect crisp, clear Fall weather for playoff baseball in Detroit tonight!

Thats me. Im more about snow than temps. But Its near unanimous from every model that below avg cold will get into Canada in winter. So I'm not concerned one bit.

I was really thinking a snowy December for here, and still kind of am. Many ninas had December as the best winter month, Feb as the worst, but the models are going for the exact opposite, more in line with recent trends of Dec being the worst and Feb the best. I still don't know what to fully think,.but am still liking the look of this winter here.

Fwiw, the Euro DJF temp departure for the entire northeast and southern Lakes is +1 to +1.5°C, with 0 to + 1°C for the upper midwest. It's cooler than the Sept run, although unrealistically too broadbrushed.

With the weather this week colors should explode. I'm headed to the UP tomorrow thru Wed!

Same here...2010s were the snowiest decade on record. The 2000s just narrowly miss being the 2nd. The increase in snowfall since the mid 20th century gas been undeniable. This was exactly my point. The pattern doesn't get enough credit. It's not like cc just popped up out of nowhere 9 years ago...I remember during our incredible run of winters many were quick to point out it doesn't mean cc isn't happening, there's a difference between weather and climate. Well that works both ways. I don't know what the climate will be when I'm long gone, could be a rainforest or an ice age who knows...but i have no worries about MI winters not being winters in my lifetime.

Another interesting thing to add...since the 15-16 super nino, while the winters have been mild, (and it was made even more annoying by the record snowy stretch that it just followed), we have set a slew of early and late season snow records/quirks: ~cold/snowy Novembers ~largest Nov snowstorm on record (Nov 11, 2019) ~most consecutive days in a row with May snow (5) May 8-12, 2020 ~3 consecutive years (2020, 2021, 2022) saw a snowstorm between April 17-21 drop 2-6" on the area ~snowiest Halloween on record (2023) That's just Detroit. You see the snowgasm south Buffalo has been enjoying. And there have been a few very impressive record arctic shots as well, showing the cold is there. The thing is, warming climate or not, the snow season is very long from 1st to last flake. And we all can use the added moisture to our benefit IF/WHEN the pattern works out. And this goes for you too. It's a different climate but don't think for one second that an absolutely massive moisture laden bomb can't bury NYC in feet of snow. Just a decade ago everyone was having snowy winter after snowy winter. That's not that long ago. There are many factors at play, including enso and changes in climate, but the overall hostile nature of the pattern, especially for the east coast, doesn't get nearly enough credit for whats happened in recent winters imo. If below zero temps and -30° to -40° wind chills can pop in for a visit during one of the warmest winters on record (see Jan 2024), the east coast can get a good snow season. Pattern just needs to shake up.

Again, Im aware. Never said it wasnt a warm stretch. I merely said I was going by decade to decade, not intra-decade stretches. It really has been 5 very mild winters here...the other 4 were basically close to normal (2017-18 was colder than avg). A very interesting fact - during this 9 year warm stretch, avg snowfall at Detroit was 40.1". Thats only 5" below the modern day avg, and basically exactly avg for the 20th century. # of annual 1"+ snowcover days, however, averaged 40 during this stretch, which is 10 days below both the modern & longterm avg. (the prior 8 years, which would be 2007-08 thru 2014-15, averaged 58.3" & 61 days of 1"+ snowcover, both well above avg. Without diving into anymore stats, basically I have come to the conclusion that the increase in precip is an absolute positive for our winter climate. Warmer winters are yielding more snow than they used to (snowcover suffers far more than snowfall), and avg to colder than avg winters also yield more snow. (Of course this is all "on average", there will be low years). Even the warmest winters can yield respectable snowfall amounts IF the patterns are right. This is why I do not focus as much on temps as you guys do, I am more worried about avoiding the real torch winters like 2023-24, but winter at +2F can be as good or better than a winter of -2F when it comes down to snow. (Of course, I personally always root on cold lol).

That was always my impression of the east coast. Completely different that the Great Lakes.

Exactly. We never saw that before either (on record at least), and this is an expected regression. How far it goes and if it continues into the next decade will be very telling. Not sure how many cities had their snowiest decade on record in the 2010s, but just from this board, I can confirm Detroit and New York City both did, along with a slew of others (would be too much work to do each individual city, but the trend is clear). And yes the drought out west was end of the world stuff. A relatives husband is from Oakland, CA and I remember him talking about how horrible the drought was and it seemed like it would never end (all while we were living high off the snow hog).

I was referring to individual decades, not intra-decade stretches. 1990s- 29.2F 1950s- 28.6F 1930s- 28.3F 2010s- 28.2F 2000s- 27.7F 1880s- 27.6F 1940s- 27.0F 1890s- 26.5F 1960s- 26.2F 1980s- 25.9F 1920s- 25.8F 1910s- 25.5F 1900s- 24.9F 1970s- 24.8F

Despite the cold winters of 1993-94 & 1995-96, fun fact, at Detroit the 1990s remain the warmest winters decade so far (unsure is 2020s will surpass them since they are only half over). In any event 1995-96 was the classic, albeit rare, example of much less wintry climates having a much more wintry winter than here!

I was 12, almost 13 in 1995-96, and it was my first winter religiously measuring snow (2024-25 will be season #30). I can still remember watching TWC and seeing the east coast constantly get slammed while it was a cold, dry, unexciting winter here. Definitely one I would never want to repeat. My top 5 over the last 30 years would be (ranked in terms of overall subjective severity, not just snow): 2013-14 2010-11 2007-08 2014-15 2008-09 If I had to rank the 5 most severe winters since 1870, the ranking here would be: 2013-14 1880-81 1981-82 1874-75 1903-04 2013-14 was the most severe winter on record for southern MI. It's easy to confirm that it's not happening again. There are severe winters...then there's 2013-14.

Oh I know. I have always found it helpful to pay attention to BOTH the midwest and northeast because sometimes I can be on the "eastern fringe" of a midwest pattern or the "western fringe" of a northeast pattern. And to clarify, when I say Im seeing bias, its not a knock on any one person, its just how I see it. I see this thread (bias posts included) filled with people with lots of knowledge. Weather forums over the years (and I go back to WWBB circa 2002) have really changed. They have certainly lost a TON of traffic since the heyday, but they actually seemed to have increased in knowledgable posters.

I'm seeing a lot of warm bias in this thread. Not calling anyone out or anything. But even with the acknowledgment that no two winters are identical, thus no analog is perfect, I'm seeing some analogs that have produced good winters immediately get dismissed by some. And make no mistake, the internet is filled with plenty of cold bias too. Just my observation, and I feel you, @raindancewx and @GaWx are very balanced. You brought up how seasonal guidance will never show some insane anomalies, which is so true. But on the other hand, we know that CPC will never go cold in a seasonal forecasts (they will in a weekly or monthly if the signal is strong). Go look back at some of their forecasts for cold winters. It's hilarious.

Happy 1st day of the most colorful month of the year!

Very interesting. I wonder if it's a fluke though? I'd have to look into my data further.

October is a month that I dont mind boring weather, since its the most colorful month of the year!

I ended up with 1.42", with 0.72" of that thanks to Helene. Still dry, but nothing earth shattering.

I may be misreading or you may be posting in jest, but the recent years Oct/Nov weather has in no way been an indicator of the coming winter.

To clarify, that is number of consecutive days with a high of 65F+, not number in total.

Its a lot to read but i get the gist. It will take a long time to actually see if it comes to fruition, but this is absolutely a good thing for snow lovers in the Great Lakes. It would likely increase it all (snow, rain, and ice events).

The 1990s (and I think 1980s) were like the heyday for clippers. But we relied TOO much on them here, which is why 2000s and 2010s winters were much snowier than the 1990s here. As an outsider to the east coast, my general impression of your climate is certainly the "feast of famine" you describe has become more common in recent years.

I agree. I have just noticed that for some reason, the really mild winters here seem to have more punch for snowfall than winters with those same temps had decades ago. I always prefer colder because its automatically better for snowcover and more snow here, but warmer is not ever really a death sentence for seasonal snowfall here (depending on the pattern).