michsnowfreak

It really tanks in those areas, wouldnt surprise me at all.

Not far off my overall thoughts for this area....I am REALLY interested in December only because of the history of snowy La Nina Decembers. It certainly isnt a slam dunk (there have been duds) but there is a definite correlation to above avg snowfall in December. It is the strongest snowfall correlation (+ or -) of any la nina month.

LMAO. You of ALL people accusing someone of cherry picking . After you just replied to yourself 3 times about a tweet where a lumberjack analyzed chicagos avg winter by posting soley 2023-24 data. Idk even know where you live, which is why I picked PIT and two well known cities in KY/TN to show how full of it you are. Although really my first mistake was replying to you. I need to do like the rest of the board and just let you continue to talk/reply to yourself.

I must have missed the part where I said it was record cold this morning. I merely said it was a frosty morning and i liked the way the frosted rooftops contrasted with the colorful trees. Actually, I pretty much stated that in my original post, noting the contrast of cold mornings differs from Fall to Spring. It was 26F in Ann Arbor. Im starting to think TCC is just an AI generated bot profile.

November snow is always exciting because it shows that the new winter is beginning. Theres an age old saying "the weather in November the winter will remember". This saying is just another wives tale, and there really is no correlation from November to the winter. Some years it matches, some years it doesnt. But I thought this was interesting...Detroit has not seen a below normal snowfall November since 2017. Going back to 2010, a total of 14 years, 10 of the 14 saw Novembers snowfall anamoly NOT correlate to the winter that followed.

Paging Illinois guy who doesnt like cold! A lumberjack has just tweeted that chicago has mild winters. This lumberjack insists on being objective, so his proof is a detailed analysis compiling tons of data spanning all the way from December 2023 to January 2024! If using the temperature stats of ONE incredibly mild winter doesnt tell you theres no cold in Chicago, then Idk what else to tell ya! Dress warm!

Pittsburgh’s 1991-2020 avg winter temp is 31.5F. 1950s avg winter temp in Louisville, KY was 37.4F & Nashvilles was 41.5F. In 150 years of record, Pittsburgh has had a grand total of ONE winter warmer than Nashville, TN’s AVERAGE 1950s winter (oh, and that was 1889-90). In 150 years of record, Pittsburgh has had a grand total of 5 winters warmer than Louisville KY’s AVERAGE 1950s winter (1889-90, 1931-32, 1879-80, 2023-24, 1881-82). Pittsburghs winters as recently as a few years ago would be the coldest on record for Nashville. I cant believe someone who is obsessed with squeezing any stat imaginable out of xmacis would make such a ridiculous statement.

Unfortunately I dont. For whatever reason, most NWSs (DTX included) began discontinuing % of possible sunshine back in the mid-1990s. Now only sky cover (0-10) is recorded. FWIW, early Fall (ie Sept especially) is traditionally the sunniest time of the year.

Frosty Fall morning today. While the metro stayed in the mid to upper 30s all night, rural areas tanked in the 20s. This is a fairly common occurrence with early season cold nights in Fall (not as noticeable during late season cold nights in spring).

100%. JB is an absolute joke, but there are several here who are the warm version of him.

JB is a clown lol. Just because I like cold and snow...don't think I take an ounce of what he says seriously. The irony is that in recent years the winter has not followed November at all. But again, overall there's no definitive trend either way.

November has no correlation with winter. Idk how many times that has to be said, or how many times it has to be proven. Of course, Noll is simply a warm JB type. They post for one reason only. But kudos to you for replying to qqomega, since he already replied to himself.

Some just like to clutter threads by talking and replying to themselves, in this case with nothing that has to do with October

I understand, I just don't agree with it personally. Always been big into stats so that's just the way I've always ranked them.

I'm shocked Upton does that. I've never seen any other nws do that. Regardless of who does or does not use it, with all due respect I think it's an absolutely ridiculous way of ranking things. So let's say there's a 100 year sample and you finish with a mean temp of 50.5°. In the other 99 years, 18 years were 50.6° or warmer and 81 years were 50.4° or colder. But instead of saying it's the 19th warmest on record, you use dense ranking and several were ties. So instead you say it's the 14th warmest on record, even though 18 years were warmer. Any years that finish with the same mean temp as a previous year get penalized for doing so and thus cease to exist. . Ridiculous imo.

To clarify, I was referring to the model consensus, not just the euro. I don't buy the euros broadbrushed temp consensus. If it comes even close to verifying it will be unlike any other nina, with temp anomalies ranging from near normal in southwest Canada to a total range of just +0.5-1.5° in the entire eastern third of the country.

There is a centuries old saying "what happens in November the winter will remember", so I think that's where that idea generally comes from. I cannot speak for the Northeast, but I'm sure it's similar to here in that there's no definitive correlation between November and the winter. In fact, in more recent years, it's been more the opposite. 8 of the past 12 Novembers here have been colder than avg. But again, don't want to get too carried away with that either. Bottom line...Novembers weather does not excite or worry me in terms of how/if it will continue into winter.

2007-08 was such a banner winter in the Great Lakes...I knew it wasn't as good to our south, but I didn't realize it was that extreme until more recently.

Actually there still are and will be colder than normal winters, so when that happens It will be interesting to see how the models and the pros do with the forecast. This winter could be a good test with a pretty decent consensus forming for colder than normal anomalies developing in Canada as winter progresses....how far into the northern US they will spread is a bigger question mark.

Lmao what an absolute joke of a map. Id love to know how its generated (tho ben noll does tend to be the opposite of a JB-type). Euro DJF forecast for my area is +1.0C to +1.5C with avg precip. The +0.5C to +1.0C line is just to my north, and the wetter than normal winter is just to my south in OH. So yeah, Ill take the over on that map.

im skeptical of a mild/warm December, at least here.

Oh ok that explains it. Definitely not a fan of Dense-Ranking. It gives a completely inaccurate assessment.

Exact same here - 1.50". Was not expecting it. INCREDIBLE Fall weather this week. Great for the Fall color show.

Did you omit years? Looks like 2024 was 12th warmest at Boston (tied with 2 other years). Summer averages are not as wide ranging as winter. This summer would only be +1.9 using 1961-90 norms.

It's an outlier for sure.