michsnowfreak

Fortunately I have no plans to move to Ohio

Much to your disliking, most of New England will not be experiencing any drastic snowfall reductions either.

I've already seen some very mild winters have near or even above avg snowfall and when winters over the general public remarks how it was an easy winter (and it was). But when measurable snow chances encompass half the year, the possibilities are endless. And we still can get those more harsh winters where it's a true hard winter but the final snow total isn't eye popping. It's why I really like that severity index (can't think of the name off the top of my head). And yes there's no doubt that one of these years a snow bomb for the ages will bury the east. It's like a powder keg...as the winters continue to gold higher moisture, watch out when everything aligns.

Same here. Not worried about snowfall averages at all in the Great Lakes. More worried about retention.

The color is pretty much peak here. It's gorgeous. Should be a great week of leaf peeping.

I don't think that is that big of a difference at all for one 10 day run to the next. It's the same general idea, just less cold. We have seen far worse swings in other forecast models over similar periods of time.

Meaning 21 of 32 times it did not? This coming Halloween looks way different than last year which was windy, cold, and snowy. We are actually overdue for a mild Halloween.

Every year they make a big deal out of the best conditions for the best color, and while some years are more brilliant (or longer) than others, I've never seen a color show disappoint. Simply does not happen in the upper midwest/Great Lakes/northeast with our variety of trees/colors.

Yes, good eye! Love their Halloween events, and their Holiday Nights at Christmas are my absolute favorite!

What a storm. This area did not have any 10"+ snowstorms in the 1940s or 1950s. It was really the most nickle and dime era of our record.

Went to a Halloween thing tonight. The colors are just spectacular.

Has it affected the brilliance of the Fall color?

1950-51 definitely not an analog, I was just noting it for the extraordinary warmth to open the month. Highs on Nov 1st were 81° in Detroit and 82° at Cleveland and judging by the lows in the 60s it was probably muggy. Then less than 4 weeks later the infamous snowstorm buried ohio and Pennsylvania (6.3" in Detroit).

Oh I'm 100% sold on a mild weather pattern. But the gfs extended isn't exactly gospel is all I'm saying. Last year it probably had us hit 105-110° a dozen tomes and our max was 90° lol.

I'd hold your horses on a 372 hr op run lol. There have been some impressive Nov warm spells before (2020, 1975). For most, November 1, 1950 remains the warmest November day on record, with many areas in the 80s. It cooled down big time by the 3rd however.

I expect a mild November. Not only is that typical of La Nina, but most other signs right now are pointing to at least the first half of November being mild. No worries from me. We've enough Halloween and early November snowfalls in recent years to know it has nothing to do with winter. Would be nice for a snowy Thanksgiving.

This is true. Plus the lake belts usually enjoy a huge bonanza of fun.

Ninas often are up and down anyway. Really not worried at all about getting so.e gold periods. The question is how many?

Tonights moon

Are you still liking above avg precip in the Lakes?

Yeah. It was probably in the upper 20s JUST west of DTW airport. These Fall mornings have some wild local swings.

True. Look at this morning. 26° Ann Arbor and 37° DTW.

And add in the above avg precip....pretty good look for the Lakes.

When driving through northern MI, no matter time of day but especially if it's dark out, you will really notice your car temperature reading go up and down up and down...

Not sure what the EPO was, however last year we had a snowy Halloween here and a cold start to November which certainly didnt portray the winter as a whole lol. Speaking of November, strictly from a snow perspective, I thought this was interesting. Detroit has not seen a below normal snowfall November since 2017. Going back to 2010, a total of 14 years, 10 of the 14 saw Novembers snowfall anamoly NOT correlate to the winter that followed.