michsnowfreak

January, already the coldest climo month of the year, has the coldest anamolies of any month in the northern tier on both cansips and cfs.

Is that spot in southeast Ohio the most extreme color on the drought monitor?

With a mild November in store, hoping we get a taste of winter around Thanksgiving. Considering the odd mismatch the past decade of cold, snowy Novembers and mild low snow Decembers, wouldnt mind a mild November if we get some fun times in December. Love to see a bit of a reversal this year.

Interesting as that doesn't quite match with the wxbell cansips. In any event. Not a bad look here. And even for most of the Northeast that's only +1-1.5°C

Lol well I meant climo wise. The decline of average temperature during November is greater than any month of the year (also greater than the rise of any month of the year, though May is fairly close). While I personally am ready for snow, I'm fine with a mild November. Locally weve seen more cold than mild Novembers the last decade.

The CFS was actually quite steady on a mild November.

Happy November all. Really is when North America starts descending into winter. Not sure about every place, but here in Detroit and most other midwest/Lakes areas, no month of the year has a larger difference in average temperature from the first to last day of the month than November. The next closest is May.

Happy November! November really is the North American descent into winter. At Detroit, no month of the year has a larger difference in average temperature from the first to last day of the month than November. The next closest is May.

No flakes here, but we are due for some no-flake Octobers. Historically its a 50/50 chance, but 9 of the last 13 seasons have seen the first flakes in October at DTW.

Hes an agenda troll. Marquette clearly has missing data from the 1960s, just as Toledo did in the graph he posted. The snowiest winter on record for the Keewenaw Peninsula in the U.P. (an even snowier local than MQT) is actually the very cold winter of 1978-79 with like 380". The freezing of Lake Superior is a different beast than that of the other Great Lakes. The 1960s were much colder winters than the mild 1950s, but the real cold winters decade was the 1970s. Marquettes snowfall is taken outside of the city in Negaunee, an area that is actually MUCH snowier than the city itself. very micro-climatey there. Not sure if those 1960s numbers werent in Negaunee but rather in the city itself, or if it was just missing data.

This makes it 2 straight snowy Halloweens in Minneapolis. Last Halloween was snowy in Detroit, this one is warm and windy.

I think they go by both names.

Last year was even worse. Multiple runs showed all time highs of 108-110°, and instead for the first time in 108 years Detroit failed to pass 90°.

I notice with the gfs in summer it was actually too hot in long range then cooled inside 200 hrs. Not sure if every model has a different bias.

Columbus is actually the most appealing big city in Ohio imo. Fortunately DTW still averages 4° colder in winter and averages 17" more snow than CMH

2011-12 was one of the outliers. Ninas aren't set in stone, but nina trends are definitely wetter/snowier with a big temp gradient usually keeping the north colder than avg and the south warmer than avg.

Definitely quite a bit. Obviously lots of all kinds of different trees, but what always stand out to me is the high number or horse chestnut trees.

And the eps ran too warm when this first weekend of November was in the longrange. It's logical to exercise caution with ANY longrange forecast.

Thought this was neat. A Sycamore vs a maple leaf in my backyard.

Always enjoy your posts. Please do not be a stranger this winter!

I'm assuming George misspoke. The northern plains are the center of late october/early November warmth, but will quite likely be some of the colder anomalies this winter. Nearly all models show this to one extent or another, and it's definitely nina climo to boot.

Fall and spring are the battle seasons. Lots of extremes and up and downs. Winter and summer duke it out. The difference, of course, is those warm autumn days will soon lose to winter, just as those spring snowfalls quickly lose to summer.

Nice! Yes i wait til Thanksgiving week to turn them on usually.

I know you're relatively new to the midwest. No one is disputing a mild November. But you have to remember a few things. Averages tank throughout November. And we have had quite a few cold/snowy novembers the last decade that have led to mild winters. And our harshest winter of the last decade (2017-18) started with a mild November. (Historically there is no november-winter correlation though).

Breaking out of the super dry pattern in November is perfect timing ahead of winter. It's very common to see mild, dry Autumn's lead to wet winters in la ninas (though this autumn was extra dry). Although in my perfect world winter would start November 1st, I'm not worried at all about a mild November. Weve had plenty of cold, snowy novembers in recent years. Plus ill be busy getting all the Christmas decor ready lol.