michsnowfreak

Patterns and indices are definitely not my strong suit, but I know that sensible weather has definitely not matched December to the rest of winter more often than not. Even last year, torch Dec followed by much colder and snowy Jan. In 2021-22, a very warm Dec was followed by a very cold Jan/Feb. While the La Nina winter of 2017-18 was cold & snowy throughout, the winter of 2016-17 had a cold, snowy Dec followed by a very mild Jan/Feb. Now, I know sensible weather sometimes has to catch up to some of the patterns/indicies/etc, but I DO know that the weather of December has not necessarily been a harbinger of winter the past decade (or really, ever). Some years, yes, but many years, no.

Lmao so true. Tip always has that lotion at the ready.

I doubt it. That's not long ago, the climate has not changed THAT much.

I was referring more to synoptic snowstorms. LES is fun of course, but since im outside the lake belts (Detroit suburbs), its more mood flakes, squalls, dustings, and 1-3" type events. Definitely adds to the mood, but its never a make or break for a winter like it is in Buffalo or Marquette. La Nina winters, good or bad, tend to have plenty of potential. Theres almost always an active storm track, almost always a roller coaster, and almost always a large temp gradient in the US. What this winter looks like when the final numbers are totaled remains to be seen, but Ive never in my life lived through a stagnant, non-changing winter in MI, and I certainly dont expect to do so in a la nina winter. Its a long season. Even the beginning of December isnt going to tell me much for winter as a whole, just for December. Ive learned to always take winter one month at a time at the MOST. Im not very good when it comes to all these indicies at all, Im more of a climo/know the weather type. Its so early, as of this point, I really have to stick with what I said the other day - there are things I really like for this season, and things i really dont.

We've had quite a few cold Novembers in recent years (8 of the past 12 colder than avg) but it's been striking how often novembers pattern has differed from winter the past decade here. For the heck if it, I looked at the top 20 warmest and coldest Novembers on record. Of the 20 warmest, 14 saw warmer than avg winters and 6 saw colder than avg winters. Of the 20 coldest, 10 saw warmer than avg winters and 10 colder than avg.

DTW actually finished -0.4°F in 2021-22 but that had us a little over +1°C. Like I said though, always a grain of salt. That does look like a decent overall prediction by the Euro tho. Once we start getting snowstorms to track, it'll be interesting to see if Euro has regained it's king status of several years ago.

Honestly though seasonal models need to be taken with a grain of salt anyway, so that's something you can look at next spring (if the Euro had the same bias as it did before). A more extreme scenario of the Euro (colder and warmer anomalies than shown) is all but a guarantee, especially In a nina.

I know it's so dry but rain once the growing season is over isn't something I really care about. Definitely liking a more active pattern finally developing as winter nears.

I had 0.02" lol

I forgot I was talking to someone who is post-limited and doesn't actually save those posts for anything other than trolling.

Oh I have no doubt itll be an excellent snow year for the northern Lakes. For the southern Lakes there are some things I like and some things I don't like.

I agree. But it's still good for the northern US. It's what causes those nina crazy temp gradients.

75-76 had a snowy December, a cold January, then a blowtorch second half of Feb. Overall it was a good winter. In fact 1973-74 thru 1978-79 were all decent winters wrt cold or snow.

Even the euro, by far the warmest of the seasonal models for the northern US & Canada, is much cooler in western and southern Canada this winter, which is always a good sign for good periods in the northern US.

HIGHLY doubt we will be >+7F this winter (Nov a slight possibility). Yes, the 3 instances of warm Novembers led to warm winters, but the moral of the story is there is no overall correlation. There have been more cold than warm Novembers lately (8 of the last 12 were colder than avg), so its not an even playing field. A better way of looking at it... 2023: Near avg November led to very mild winter 2022: Mild November led to very mild winter 2021: Cold November led to near avg winter 2020: Very mild November led to near avg winter 2019: Very cold November led to very mild winter 2018: Very cold November led to near avg winter 2017: Cold November led to cold winter 2016: Very mild November led to very mild winter 2015: Very mild November led to very mild winter 2014: Very cold November led to very cold winter 2013: Very cold November led to very cold winter 2012: Cold November led to mild winter 2011: Very mild November led to very mild winter 2010: Mild November led to very cold winter EDIT- For the hell of it, I ran the top 20 coldest & warmest Novembers... Of the top 20 coldest Novembers, 6 of the winters were milder than avg, 14 were colder. Of the top 20 warmest Novembers, 10 of the winters were milder than avg, 10 were colder

The Euro is the warmest seasonal forecast in the north, but also their forecast is always far too broadbrushed (almost more like a probability forecast). The cfs/cansips are much colder in the north. As for precip, cansips seems to be the driest for the east coast. Cfs/euro aren't too bad.

That November was one of the warmest on record....then we had a snowstorm on Thanksgiving.

Initially I was thinking we were due for a more frontloaded winter, especially as those can happen in Ninas, but with latest trends Im actually liking December less and January more.

Detroits avg November snowfall is 1.9" and we have not had a below avg snow November since 2017. Snowflakes at some point in November are very common but big snows are very rare. Not thinking it's a December to remember but as climo cools rapidly, if this projected wet winter pattern starts to develop, could have some fun times (thinking Jan/Feb are more fun than Dec).

Thanks! To further clarify, I'm not saying this winter will be cold. Just that if it's mild, it'll have nothing to do with the fact that November was very mild lol. I do think the end result will be milder than avg but not crazy. Im definitely liking the big cold that's forecast to build into canada once winter gets going, but it does look like right now, once again December will be the least wintry of the 3 winter months (not that their won't be any fun in December, just looks least favored). Going back to 2010, you can see how commonly the winter did NOT remember November lol. Nov 2023: -0.1F Winter +6.4F Nov 2022: +2.1F Winter +5.0F Nov 2021: -1.8F Winter -0.4F Nov 2020: +4.5F Winter +0.3F Nov 2019: -5.4F Winter +3.8F Nov 2018: -4.1F Winter +0.5F Nov 2017: -0.8F Winter -1.1F Nov 2016: +5.5F Winter +4.1F Nov 2015: +4.8F Winter +5.1F Nov 2014: -5.4F Winter -5.1F Nov 2013: -3.7F Winter -8.5F Nov 2012: -0.8F Winter +2.3F Nov 2011: +5.4F Winter +4.6F Nov 2010: +0.8F Winter -4.3F

I dont know which winter it was as I dont remember either being hyped up. 2018-19 winter was close to avg temp-wise. Youre probably thinking of 2019-20. We started at Detroit with the biggest November snowstorm on record (9.2" on Nov 11th) and then saw the earliest single digit temperature on record (Nov 13th)....and then proceeded to have the 11th warmest winter on record. Ive said it a hundred times but if need be Ill say it a hundred more - what happens in November has NOTHING to do with what will happen in winter. Historically there is no correlation. The past decade, theres actually been a very strong correlation to the weather pattern of November being OPOSITTE of what winter ends up bringing. But again, its a total toss up.

I'd rather see a cold winter of DJF -8 to -12 (similar to 2013-14 or 2014-15) that has the extremist agenda pushers of cc squirm because of the general public's reaction. I recall in Feb 2015 when record smashing cold poured into the upper midwest and east a few on this board (no memory of who it was) had meltdowns because even though most of the world was warmer than average, the coldest anomalies on the globe were in the US and they were freaking that it would cause normies to mock cc.

Im not a golfer, but I assume as long as there isn't snow on the ground, you can golf.

Quite a few frosts here too, some heavy. Dtw official low has been 33, it's unbelievable they didn't drop below freezing on 10/23 considering all nearby stations were in the 20s, but that's what concrete at an airport will do.

It means the weather models are back to their normal winter hours