michsnowfreak

There are people who literally had to have amputations due to cold in Kansas City during an NFL game in January. I actually went out for a winter walk one day in mid-Jan and turned right around because it was too cold for me, someone used to cold in MI. Yes, in the insanely warm winter of 2023-24 we had a big arctic blast. Why bring this up? Because this winter will not be anywhere near as warm as last winter in many places. I feel people get WAY too caught up in the projected MONTHLY and SEASONAL anomalies and fail to remember that the weather changes on a near daily basis often times.

Weeklies definitely got colder in december.

Omggg. A chance to relive the most severe winter on record? Sign me up!

I don't think this winter is going to be wall to wall warm at all. Especially here but even on the east coast. Do I think the east coast ends up with a warmer than avg DJF? Yes. But do I think there's more than a few periods of opportunity? Yes.

I dont live on the east coast so ill just say it. The problem is if/when those deviations occur, a few of the posters who have those warm biases will simply dismiss them or ignore them all together.

I honestly don't think that's why the maps are flawed. What the reason is, I don't know. But NONE of the other maps show these flaws, and WB has a lot of long range maps.

I would love for a wintry/snowy Thanksgiving. The last snowy one was 2013. Since then we have had numerous early/mid November snowfalls, snow on Halloween, and more recently some nice Thanksgiving weekend snowfalls (2021, 2023). Might as well pull a 1975 (very warm November then a Thanksgiving snowstorm).

Same. I did renew my yearly membership last april because it's so handy for winter, but they raised their price I think in May or June so don't think I'm renewing again.

There are tons of products on WB, and the cfs is the only product with a noticeable flaw.

I bookmark both and check them both. While the WB version does have the cold flaw, it should be noted that regardless the cfs changes quite frequently.

Just to be clear, Don posted C3S (euro) not CFS.

Seems like the first legit rain in ages lol. Puddles pooling around leaf piles in the street.

It's definitely been warmer relative to climo on the east coast than here. But another thing we ALL have to remember...is everything is relatively to any specific areas averages. For here, I look at torch winters as disasters, but pretty much anything else, ranging from colder than avg to milder than avg, is really more dependent on the pattern itself to dictate how much snow fun I will have lol. On a more longterm basis, summers have warmed more than winters here. Yet we don't get the extreme max temps at all. It's more about a summer full of warm low temps with a few cool nights thrown in.

Agree. We had our most severe stretch of winters on record 2007-15 while the west was parched in drought. Is the planet warming? Yes. Will we still have cold winters? Yes.

Milder than avg winters will outpace colder than avg ones, but 5 of the next 100 winters colder than avg? I'll take the over. While we've only had 2 colder than avg winters since 2015-16, we had quite a few from 2000-2015.

Detroit had some questionably "warm" lows in October. Particularly October 27, when the low was 33 when just other thermometers right near airport were upper 20s.

One of the more impressive winter records that has yet to be broken at many stations in the midwest/Lakes is the all time high temp in January. Jan 25, 1950 (Detroit was 67, Ann Arbor 72). Of the winter months here, December has warmed the most and January the least (hardly at all).

Very interesting for that latitude. Even here, 1972-73 was one of the "coolest" strong Ninos youll ever see, but did have a mild Jan & warm Mar. That is even more likely here, which is why I always talk about how precip/patterns are more important here than actual temp departures (of course temp departures make a much bigger difference early and late in the season). I always want a season of good snowcover, but if im stuck with mild, no reason we cant have an avg snowfall season. Its become much more common recently as well. Top 5 lowest snowfall seasons at Detroit & avg DJF temp 1.) 1936-37: 12.9"....30.0F (30th warmest) 2.) 1881-82: 13.2"....37.0F (1st warmest) 3.) 1948-49: 13.7"....31.3F (17th warmest) 4.) 1918-19: 15.2"....32.2F (14th warmest) 5.) 1965-66: 15.4"....28.5F (43rd warmest) Pretty much avoiding top 5-10 warm winter is ALWAYS preferred, but anything colder than that is a crapshoot for snow. Ive lived through our most severe winter on record, I hope to never have to see our least severe lol.

Raindance would be creaming his pants if he were still here. It is always nice to see these first storms really produce. Even though it has zero effect on me, its nice to know that winter is starting to get its act together.

On March 20/21, 1983, a snowstorm dropped 7.3" at Detroit. Another late snowfall hit 2 days earlier than yours, April 17, 1983. DTW saw 3.4" from this but northern suburbs had 6". Backing up, through March 19th DTW was at an unprecedentedly low 9.0" season total. Some older people STILL talk about that winter as the winter that wasnt. (it was also 64F on Christmas). 1982-83 was similar to 2011-12 in that it was an absolutely terrible winter surrounded before and after by cold, snowy winters, which probably made it seem even worse.

This is why I think the east coast, regardless of how much their winters warm, have yet to see their biggest snowstorm on record. One day the ingredients will come together just right, add in the already robust components of a noreaster but give it more moisture to work with...watch out.

72-73 was an ok winter here, avg snow but not good retention. 82-83 was terrible outside of 2 spring snowstorms. 97-98 sucked but at least had ok periods. I cant imagine the frustration in 72-73 for people in NYC or DC seeing the southeast get a snowstorm when they had a literally snowless winter.

This x 100. And by no means am I taking ANY cracks at tips intelligence. I just think it goes too far sometimes. The Great Lakes add an entire different aspect to the climate. Which is why in a "perfect world" the changes in local climate (which arent drastic) can be beneficial (slightly milder temps but more precip/snow) but there will still be great years and terrible years. Im not an ice fisherman who doesnt care how little snow we get as long as the ice is thick. Im the opposite. JB gets his flack and rightly so but honestly, hes probably more intelligent than he gets credit for. If he posted in here on a daily basis, hed be the cold version of snowman/bluewave. Its one thing to have bias, but think of just HOW much more about the weather people like us know than people that swear by the little icons on their phone telling them todays weather.

Lmao! Every aspect of the weather- it could be a clear, calm, seasonable day- is climate change with you. Every post, every everything. And what's funny is you act like you are fighting some battle against a group of climate deniers...no one in here ever denounces cc. But God forbid someone discusses a weather pattern without putting in a tip-mandated comment about cc. As 40/70 said, instant butthurt. And I am just fine with my climate, thank you. I know you think you are an expert on the subject and you love to throw around extreme scenarios that wont happen. We literally JUST had our snowiest period in recorded history 2007-15. Not by a little, by a lot. The winters of the 2000s and 2010s were snowier than avg. Even with all the milder winters since 2016 weve only had a few below avg snow seasons. Keep fantasizing about your 90° winter temps.

Maybe that is why those who were looking forward to the el nino winter in the east were disappointed. I never, ever have high hopes for a strong nino winter (again, everything being relative to climo...winter in MI...it WILL snow). I always have much higher hopes in la nina winters, with caution of course applied to all the other factors at play.