michsnowfreak

The last 10 years have basically averaged around avg for snowfall here. Not being in the direct snowbelt, we still get a boost from increased overall precipitation. So basically, the last 10 years have seen solidly above avg temps but still near avg snowfall. The previous 10 years saw temps slightly below avg but snowfall well above avg. At Detroit officially the most recent 30-yr avg (1991-20) is 45.0”, but the longterm period-of-record avg is 41.0”. The last 10 years at Detroit have averaged 40.9” (2014-15 thru 2023-24). The 10 years before that at DTW averaged 54.9” (2004-05 thru 2013-14). Fun fact- 2024-25 will be my 30th winter measuring snowfall in Wyandotte, MI (first at my parents house then at my own, stayed in the same city). So once this winter is over I will have a long enough period of record for a 30-yr avg lol. Last winter was the only well-below avg snow season of this post-2015 era everyone likes talking about lol. This is why I say over and over....Im not as worried about temps as I am precip and patterns in the Great Lakes region. I definitely prefer cold, but it is not the end all. I should also add, not just an increase in LES for snowbelts like you, but warmer winters also tend to give us some real dynamic winter storms (we have had quite a few low ratio snows that, had it been 10-1 and a few degrees colder, would really beef up the snow totals).

Of course it goes both ways, though on this board specifically I don't see the cold biased forecasters. There's a difference between liking/wanting cold and snowy vs forecasting it.

Very well said, and my thoughts exactly!

Ive noticed with some on here, warm solutions on longterm guidance (even 384 hr op maps) are gospel and cold solutions should be discounted for their unreliability. Looking at todays 12z ensembles, nothing screams "RECORD warm start to December" like an ensemble mean of solidly colder than avg 850s to start December.

I disagree on January. I'm really liking January here, and while it will probably be somewhat milder than normal on the east coast it's probably your best winter month this season. I think @40/70 Benchmarkalso thinks Jan will be be your best month. A few months ago I thought Dec might be great and Jan would suck (going by some previous nina years) but I've completely flipped recently. Dec looks to have it's chances but should be the least favorable of the 3 winter months. Cfs and some other models have been steadfast on western Canada just loaded with cold by January.

You seem to be quite knowledgeable, but honestly, it seems crazy to me to pull the plug on an entire winter on the east coast if you don't see sustained cold in November. It just doesn't make sense. You talk about 16-17 frequently...well there was plenty of cold from Thanksgiving to Christmas. How did the rest of that winter work out? And also I do not see any signs of record warmth starting December.

The CFS (and several other models) has been steadfast in having well below average temps in already frigid Canada in the coldest month of the year (Jan), and the same for Feb. Never any guarantees, but I like that look and the potential it holds.

Thats why I have really been liking Jan and Feb, the models really have that cold in western/southern Canada. For example, January, already the coldest month of the year, sees average temps in Chicago & Detroit with colder than avg temps in the northwoods and much colder than avg temps in already frigid Canada in the coldest month of the year? No guarantees, but Ill take my chances with that scenario as forecast.

2017-18 was a fantastic winter, we set a few cold records, had a snowy December including a perfect Christmas Eve snowstorm, had the longest stretch on record with temps of 19F or colder, spent much of the late Feb torch with snowpack as it was deep early in the month and had to melt, and had a crazy mid-April ice storm. NO complaints at all about 2017-18, and it probably would have seemed even more harsh had the record 2007-15 stretch not been so fresh in the mind. Its been the only winter that has really stood out in the post-2015 era, but outside of last winter its really not been too bad for snow here either. Its been far more the fact that 5 of the 9 winters were very mild. Ironically, the other low-snow year was 2018-19, a winter with near avg temps and 3 ice storms. % of avg snowfall in the post-2015 era: 2015-16: 78% 2016-17: 83% 2017-18: 134% 2018-19: 69% 2019-20: 96% 2020-21: 99% 2021-22: 104% 2022-23: 82% 2023-24: 52% 9-winter avg: 88% It should also be noted this is using the 1991-2020 avg snowfall, the highest on record. If we use the long-term avg which is a few inches less, all those % would be higher.

Isnt that the truth? In winter I check every model, ensemble, weeklies, cfs, etc on a daily basis. When an actual snow event is on the doorstep, im analyzing p-type, looking at every model & short term models total qpf, if theres any ptype issues, last minute shifts north or south, etc. In summer I only check when severe wx is forecast, or if an unusual hot or cool spell is on the way.

LMAO at those maps. Its been proven every single year that the forecast seasonal snowfall maps (much like the daily snowfall forecasts in storm season) are terrible and unreliable. But I especially laugh at the Washington Posts Microsoft Paint map (with no data source) of the difference in snowfall. Not sure if they are bad at math, bad at geography, or just promoting an extremist agenda. Southern Michigan is in the -10 to -20% difference. Every single first order station has seen a RISE between 6-11%. (not listed but Ann Arbor has a rise of +25%). DETROIT 1964-1993: 42.0” 1994-2023: 44.6” Difference: +6% FLINT 1964-1993: 49.5” 1994-2023: 52.4” Difference: +6% SAGINAW 1964-1993: 44.3” 1994-2023: 49.9” Difference: +11% GRAND RAPIDS 1964-1993: 71.6” 1994-2023: 77.2” Difference: +7%

Yeah its definitely been a mild stretch of winters, especially for the east coast. But forecasting a +10 DJF anomaly would be a huge stretch for anywhere. My favorite post 2015 winter is 2017-18. Very snowy and wall to wall cold Nov-Apr except the last 10 days of Feb.

That's crazy. But yeah the lakeshore can do funky things. For instance, this Fall Detroits color peaked a good week or more before Traverse City well to the north.

Euro weeklies continue to cool.

Euro weeklies continue to cool.

Oh yes car thermometers are not at all accurate. Usually too warm. But they can show the changing temps up and down well.

Before i worked from home I used to witness temps colder than the official #s every morning as I drove past DTW. But yes I know what you're saying. It's really crazy when driving through northern MI, but we have plenty of that in southern MI too. A friend of mine lives in rural northern Monroe county and even though it's well south of Detroit the temps absolutely tank at night, far colder than here/DTW on clear nights.

Wow I totally forgot about that in Nov 2018. Here we had a parade of 1-2" type snows totalling over 6" on the month but nothing large.

If I'm understanding the question from @mitchnick, I think he's asking if you forecast a DJF departure of +10, not just if any one location somewhere had a +10 month. I'm no forecaster but I personally think for most (especially my area/Great Lakes) there will be one month that's a real dud and one month that's a lot of fun.

DTW had another 33 this morning. This year will technically be the latest first freeze on record (Nov 15) even though it is nowhere near the latest first 33 (Nov 15) and likely wont be the latest first hard freeze of 28 or lower (Dec 4). My opinion is that DTW is not so much UHI as it is airport runways. But we still use the phrase UHI lol. Is the thermometer/ASOS in a properly maintained, enclosed, grassy area? Absolutely. But the airport has grown exponentially the past few decades and there is so much more concrete there than there used to be. There's no other way to slice it. There's been multiple 20s in most suburbs this Fall, and I'm not just talking the most rural ones either. Thermometers in Romulus (the city DTW is in) JUST outside the airport property have been in the upper 20s on these 33° mornings.

Very nice, detailed work!

It was Nov 11/12, 2019. November 2018 was snowy with lots of small snowfalls but nothing big.

Yes. Either 2-4 or 3-5".

This part struck me "These kind of winters have a reputation for bucking the prototype Nina evolution (I.e oftentimes Jan-Feb is colder than Dec in these years)". Most seasonal models (regardless of their overall departures) have shown Dec as the mildest of the 3 winter months for quite a while now. Way back when we first started talking Nina I was looking at December as being the "star" month for a change, as it happens so often in a Nina. But clearly that would go against most trends as of now.

5 years ago today we were digging out of Detroits biggest November snowstorm on record (9.2") and would then fall to 7°, the earliest single digit temp on record. The winter of 2019-20 ended up being a mild winter.