michsnowfreak

Same here! A low monthly range (warmest 45, coldest 11) and warmer mins and very gray, even more gray than usual. The avg high was +1.9F but the avg low +5.3F, and being the coldest month of the year, it was still cold, just not the deep winter feel most of Jan 2025 was.

Actually, when it comes to El Nino, strong is what I detest hearing. Im fine with weak El Nino, and in fact, often times the word El Nino scares people more than it should. Some very wintry winters in the weak Nino category since 1950.... 1969-70, 1976-77, 1977-78, 2004-04, 2014-15. The only really awful winter I can find as a weak Nino was 1952-53. But more important than anything, we have really learned over the past multiple ENSO episodes that the standard "rules" of what to expect do not always apply.

For you Pacific experts..as we progress through the warm months, when do we start to look for signs (not in models, but in actual real-time) that the Pacific is looking like it will be "favorable" or "unfavorable" for the next cold season. I always hear so much talk about it and obviously its only one piece of the puzzle, but its a piece I am clueless about.

From an enso perspective thats already a decent sign...but as we know Enso is just 1 piece of the puzzle.

It was fairly similar here temp wise, but as always snow is always a wild card. Biggest difference here was January was mild in 2021 and cold in 2025 2020-21 vs 2024-25 at Detroit Nov: +4.5 +5.3 ** 3.5” 1.8” Dec: +1.6 +2.2 ** 9.6” 3.6” Jan: +3.5 -2.8 ** 6.4” 8.9” Feb: -4.7 -1.9 ** 21.8” 12.2” Mar: +5.7 +6.0 ** T 0.4” Apr: +1.7 ? ** 3.6” ?

Started as snow here around 7am, just a trace, then quickly turned to rain which at times mixed with sleet, and now some thunder. Temps in the mid-30s.

Jokes aside, everything here was dormant and end-of-winter brown until 2 or 3 days before the end of March then like the snap of a finger the grass got green. Obviously still brown with all the bare trees, tho some have buds.

Cold morning to start April in Michigan. Low was 26F at DTW, but temps near 0F in Marquette with the fresh deep snow.

Some of the photos from northern Michigan the last few days were just incredible. The ice storm in northern lower MI was devastating, but also so beautiful, and as much as 16-19" snow fell in the Marquette area. Absolutely jealous of that snow even though its spring. Here, after a colder than average January & February with ample snowcover days, we went from deep winter to sudden spring, March ending up as the 7th warmest on record and tying with 1961 for the 10th least snowy on record with 0.4". Whats interesting about the warmth is that it was the daytime highs, not lows, that did the heavy lifting. The march max was the 5th warmest on record but the min just the 21st warmest on record. The initial bouts of warmth in March came with still-frozen ground, but a sudden greening of grass took place the last 2 or 3 days of the month.

The models must think it's spring 365 days a year then

Not quite sure how it all works in Germany...I know obviously the basics of -NAO is colder, but from a snow-perspective, the midwest/Great Lakes often get more snow with a +NAO in winter. Its the fringe parts of the season (ie Nov/Mar-Apr) when we root on -NAO. A DJF -NAO usually screams suppression so we have to rely soley on NW flow. Im not sure if the same can be said for new england wrt the benefits of -NAO vs +NAO. And Im really not well-versed at all in the climate of Germany.

Is there a link for this Grok? I have lots of data that Ive saved, computed, etc, but not with AI lol. Heres my snowcover days data. I didnt start that til midway thru the 1999-00 season, however, so snowcover N/A for me for 1995-96 thru 1999-00 (an idiotic move considering Jan 1999). Days with T+ 1”+ 3”+ 5”+ 10”+ 2000-01 87 66 53 35 12 2001-02 60 35 12 2 0 2002-03 106 67 43 19 2 2003-04 77 60 41 25 0 2004-05 102 65 51 36 5 2005-06 73 46 25 16 0 2006-07 75 49 15 7 1 2007-08 105 69 43 21 2 2008-09 88 62 47 38 22 2009-10 84 58 31 25 3 2010-11 94 81 70 58 14 2011-12 43 20 8 1 0 2012-13 75 52 28 9 0 2013-14 119 95 81 75 52 2014-15 80 74 59 45 36 2015-16 59 37 17 3 0 2016-17 51 39 25 16 1 2017-18 83 61 43 33 5 2018-19 66 39 12 7 0 2019-20 64 41 20 7 0 2020-21 64 47 28 16 7 2021-22 73 49 27 10 0 2022-23 50 35 19 3 0 2023-24 35 18 12 6 0 2024-25 74 44 21 8 0

Thanks. I mustve added something incorrectly when I calculated my avg. Never heard of grok lol.

Always look forward to your input! Some crazy stats on DC. Especially the 80 in Jan - while we have had 60s in Jan before, nothing close to that. We actually havent hit 50 in Jan in 4 years. Looks like summer like warmth in the mid atlantic while the far northern tier gets a winter storm. I dont worry about annual cold/snow here and the edges, as we still get very early and late snows. My big thing is keeping the winter fun and deep winter periods from mid-November to mid-March. My bigger soapbox, and I KNOW itll change one of these years soon, is the wildness of how we havent had a great December since 2017. We have had several white Christmases since then, but as a whole, have to go back to 2017 to get a great December! Only 1 finished snowier than avg, and that was by 0.7". Every other month has had standouts since then. In the 7 years since that snowy winter of 2017-18.... October- 4 of 7 with snow, 1 being measurable November- 6 of 7 snowier than avg December- 1 of 7 snowier than avg January- 2 of 7 snowier than avg February- 3 of 7 snowier than avg March- 1 of 7 snowier than avg April- 3 of 6 snowier than avg May- 3 of 6 with snow, 1 being measurable

Cant remember if I posted this or not, but looking at snowfall after mid-April in Detroit shows that never have more flakes fallen so late with such frequency as they have in the 2020s. Snow has fallen on an average of 4.6 days per year after mid-April in the 2020s, easily #1, with 2nd place being the 1900s at 3.2 days. Also, with an average post mid-April snow of 2.2", the 2020s also blows away 2nd place (1920s - avg 1.3"). As long as the next 5 years manage to see a total of 1.9" or more of snow in this timeframe, the 2020s will finish as the most snowy of any decade for post mid-April snow. 5 years with most days of snow on/after April 15th: 2020- 10 days 1907- 8 days 1947- 7 days 2023- 6 days 1956- 6 days 5 years with heaviest accumulation of snow on/after April 15th 1923- 8.2” 1943- 5.5” 2020- 5.2” 1883- 5.0” 2005- 4.4” Decade Avg days 4/15+ Total snow 4/15+ 1880s 0.5 days 0.6” (total 5.8”) 1890s 0.5 days 0.3” (total 2.7”) 1900s 3.2 days 0.6” (total 6.0”) 1910s 1.4 days 0.3” (total 2.7”) 1920s 2.0 days 1.3” (total 12.9”) 1930s 1.8 days T (total 0.4”) 1940s 1.8 days 0.9” (total 9.3”) 1950s 2.5 days 0.2” (total 1.5”) 1960s 2.1 days 0.5” (total 5.4”) 1970s 1.2 days 0.1” (total 0.8”) 1980s 1.7 days 0.5” (total 5.2”) 1990s 0.7 days 0.1” (total 0.7”) 2000s 1.2 days 0.5” (total 4.5”) 2010s 1.7 days 0.5” (total 5.3”) 2020s 4.6 days 2.2” (total 11.1”) *thru 2024*

Yup. Every Fall the annual search for blues on temp anomaly maps starts once snow becomes possible in October but that color blue becomes less and less important as we get into winter. Huge difference between some warmer than avg temps vs all out torch. It was refreshing how different this was the the last several (I consider it a better winter than '22-23 despite getting 10 more inches of snow then). I'm never one to get too into the whole "drought is a bad sign for winter", but it would be nice if the intense drought in the western half of the country could ease up by this coming Fall.

A November like day today with billowy gray skies, flurries, and gusty winds.

This was my 30th season measuring snowfall. The average is somewhere in the 46-47" range but we had a lot of stellar winters so I'd guesstimate a more realistic longterm avg is 42-45". If nothing else measurable falls this season, my 27.9" will rank as 4th least of the 30 years, behind only '97-98, '11-12, & '23-24. Much like the high snow years don't last forever, neither do the low ones. Keep the ruler ready for '25-26!

Makes sense. Im not expecting a decade long orgy either, but I like the prospects. I am not one who grades a winter soley based on snowfall, I consider all aspects of winter (cold and esp snowcover)...but for those who want JUST snowfall, the biggest worry for non-snowbelt areas of the Lakes is not temps, but a dry winter.

I agree. Obviously cold & dry isnt my first choice, but id take it over any combination starting with "warm" or "mild" anyday. Jan & Feb were the textbook definition of "winter" here. Everything was frozen and the landscape was white. It was not real exciting for a weather enthusiast, but it was absolutely winter in winter. I didnt quote this in the other thread bc I figure we are kinda moving onto early thoughts for next winter, even tho this season may have a few flakes left in it lol. @40/70 Benchmark said "I think we are flipping to -AMO/+PDO, much like the mid to late 70s". I really like this idea. It certainly doesnt mean any location will replicate whatever they had in those seasons, or that no one will get screwed, but the overall trends would likely mean a lot more wintry systems/storms and fun for many. One thing that has always fascinated me throughout the climate period of record is the tendency for very good winters and very blah winters to alternate with each other, both in singular years (good bad good bad) or in clumps (good good bad bad good bad bad good) etc. A majority of wintry climes have had winters that are subpar to their climo for the last several years now, so its inevitable that a change is coming soon. The stretch of great winters a decade ago was not going to last forever, and neither is a stretch of subpar ones. And hopefully the signs start brewing asap.

Its very confusing and what the heck was all that switching back and forth from 1932-37 lol. In any event, while it was definitely a shitty winter in 1936-37, the data in the 1930s seems a bit suspect for MLI/DVN.

We only picked up a T here. Just 0.4" in March, disappointing end to the snow season (although certainly cant rule out a bit more fleeting snow thru April). In fact, I dont do my "winter grade" until April, but basically its been cemented as a C winter for me. Nov/Dec: C-/D+, Jan/Feb: A-/B+, and Mar a D-.

Is this waterford?

A mix of rain, snow and sleet this evening. Hard to believe this is the 10th day this March snow has fallen at some point, despite only 0.4" on the month.

As tcc pointed out, there appears to be a very important M day in early December 1936. Now make no mistake about it, 1936-37 was an absolutely horrendous winter for snowfall in most spots, far worse than 2024-25. I cringe when I hear of it. It is Detroits least snowy winter on record (12.9"), Bostons least snowy on record (9.0") and ranks extremely high on the all time snowless lists in many if not most places. But I'm not sure it should be molines #1. Depending what happened that day in Dec 1936, the true #1 might be 11.1" in 1901-02. However, perhaps it was an ice storm that day, and not snow after all? Do you have access to any old local newspapers? I have access to all Detroit free press since 1837, but I wonder if anyone has access to all newspapers? It would be the best way to find out what happened that day.