michsnowfreak

Early November. Brisk air and gray skies.

Todays weeklies are colder than yesterday starting December 1st. They oscillate often. But so far no warm signal at all in December.

I would expect nothing less from NMME. if i recall, it was even warmer last winter, and we know how that worked out.

They jump a lot. And you now have access https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/extended-anomaly-2t?base_time=202511070000&projection=opencharts_north_america&valid_time=202511170000 https://charts.ecmwf.int/?facets={"Product type"%3A[]%2C"Parameters"%3A[]%2C"Type"%3A[]%2C"Range"%3A["Extended (42 days)"%2C"Sub-seasonal"]}

Regardless of what snow happens Sunday morning. The meso features on models after that look interesting too

Hey we all want snow in our backyard, so not selfish at all. Very excited for our first snow here Sunday.

Congrats on the job! And yes, come up and visit!

I dont think that one or two days of snowflakes a year will be quite the same as a Toronto winter.

Ive said since summer im feeling a good December here. I will go down with the ship if im wrong, but now that we are getting closer, its nice to see mets/models latch onto that general idea. For the talk of a textbook La Nina....well....a textbook La Nina has a good December here, and in fact, often times December is the best month of the winter. It has been a long time since that has been the case, as January/February almost always take home the prize lately.

Ive been saying since summer that Im feeling a good December. Were a month away, so Im going down with the ship if necessary!

Excitement for the first snowflakes/snowfall never gets old! Neither does the fact that the models are all over the place with each cycle.

omg are you serious!? Why the move?

31 at DTW this morning. 20s in outlying areas. First official freeze of the season

This is an interesting take. Because I always get the impression that the 90s were beloved on the east coast. The decade of the 1990s as a whole was very meh snow wise here in southeast MI. Of course there were moments, but every decade has them. The 2000s and 2010s were FAR superior to the 1990s, and even the maligned 2020s has averaged around the same (halfway thru) as the 1990s (full decade) did.

It wasnt just great, 2013-14 was the most severe winter on record in southeast MI. It followed multiple harsh winters beginning in 2002-03. The mild regime since has been concentrated on a handful of very warm winters and some average ones. Snowfall hasn't suffered greatly compared to longterm average, but took a steep decline from the record 2005-2015 stretch.

Sugar maples are my favorite!

Absolutely love my autumn blaze maple! Its a fast grower and each year the color is more impressive. Primary red but orange and yellow at bottom. Leaves dropping now, but took these pics Oct 28.

For those worried about what they perceive as not enough cold/snow in Canada in late October...and of course the now favorite starting phrase on amwx "since 2016..." I thought this was very interesting. The chart below shows snow at Detroit the past 10 years and then the previous 10 years. The bottom line is the period of record average. The past 10 years have shown a very unusual trend of snowier than average Novembers and below average snowfall in Decembers. Even more interesting is the lower November snow the previous 10 years in what were fantastic winters.

It's an old saying. But it's just that. Like looking at squirrels tails or the acorn crop. As a weather observer for now 30 years, there's absolutely no correlation. November is certainly the descent into winter, offering the largest avg temp difference from 1st to last day of any month of the year. But if im going to play with patterns I'd rather hold a favorable look for December. It's so tempting to want to see that first snow, but I've almost become superstitious in recent years with early cold and snow shots leading to mild murky Decembers.

A warm or cold November has nothing to do with the winter or the start of winter. We've seen multiple examples in recent years of cold, snowy Novembers followed by mild Decembers.

I forecast @cyclone77 and MLI to get more snow than they received last winter.

I would take the entire historic season again!

A blustery, November like day today. Lake effect rain showers and wind chills around freezing. This is the first of many cold season systems that will rotating thru the Lakes. At face value its really just a blustery Fall day but its that first big step that winter is about to start. Looking like November may start with some widespread snowflakes.

Absolutely stunning Fall day today. Colors, blue sky, crisp air. Perfect October weather.

I absolutely love Fall. Took that pic yesterday pn an impromptu walk in the park. I dont mind the leaf cleanup in the crisp chilly air at all. I'll do that 100x rather than cut grass on a humid July day.