michsnowfreak

Not true. I understand youre still relatively new to the region, but March/April climo is its own entity. Unless an abnormally cold pattern is in place to start March, this is the end of deep/sustained winter for the southern Lakes. However the mere chance of a snowstorm, much less measurable snow, is very much there into mid April amd sometimes beyond.

You were right in the narrow heaviest band of 3-3.5" snow. We only got a trace here

The models did absolutely horrendous with this event up to and including now cast time.

It was. Im surprised you didnt know, this thread has taken more of an interest in the West for some reason () than it ever has before during this winter which has been cold where the majority of this forums posters live.

Theres a blast from the past! Wonder how hes doing?

Youre in the majority on that train of thought....but it still doesn't mean its not going to happen lol.

There's no need to shut it down. If theres nothing to discuss, then no need to post. But snow potential is nowhere near finished.

World of difference in the type of winter it was between western and eastern sub this winter. Though I do have to correct McHenry, chicagos winter will not end up warmer than avg.

Anything is possible but that is highly unlikely. March/April snows pop up with short notice regardless how cold/mild the pattern is. Detroit is at 38.8" to date. The current annual avg is considered 42.7", but likely involves a bit of quality control as the raw number is closer to 44". The 2000s-2010s were abnormally snowy as we all remember. The period of record avg is 40.9".

Its a cool index. Ranks every winter since 1950.

It was a nice white Christmas season, starting in late November. Only thing that sucked was actual Christmas was bare. I look at the whole season. It was very front-loaded in the western sub, but it still happened lol.

I say this every year, but I don't grade til April. Its minimal, but March/April does have a slight impact on my grade. It will likely be in A-/B+ territory, and certainly no lower than a B+ I love the endless cold/snowcover as you know, so it was really an excellent winter. No huge storms (biggest mby 6.2", biggest DTW 6.1") and an almost comical no white Christmas (considering the continuous snowcover that began in late November) are the only real mars on the grade. I wouldve liked to kept the snowpack into March but deep winter started unusually early, so wont dock for that. I never count this into grades, but it seemed locally that the models had an atrocious winter performance. There were both rugpulls and last minute surprises. AWSSI still has Detroit in an "extreme" winter. A mild March would likely knock it down to "severe" but no further. https://mrcc.purdue.edu/research/AWSSI/chart?stn=DTWthr You can definitely see it was an eastern sub winter. Some random cities rankings to date: Mild- International Falls Moderate- Minneapolis, Des Moines, Quad Cities, Rockford Average- Chicago, Milwaukee, Green Bay, Alpena Severe- Sault Ste Marie, Saginaw, Grand Rapids, Fort Wayne, Toledo, Indianapolis Extreme- Detroit, Flint, Columbus, Dayton, Cleveland

There are plenty of aspects of our weather that are cyclical.

Yup. Weather is and always will be cyclical. New York city ended a historic snow drought this year (in a resounding way) but the way some talked prior to January they acted like it would never snow again in nyc. What got lost though is thst that snow drought came on the heals of record snowy 2010s. With me knowing Detroits climate inside and out, I can assure you that everything goes in cycles. We are not the feast or famine climate of the east coast, but there are still many intra-winter trends that go thru the cycles.

Quick burst of snow and blowing snow moved through late in the evening, depositing a quick 0.6" both here and DTW. Season to date 39.8" my backyard, 38.8" DTW.

It seemed that way to me too. And I don't even pay close attention. Seems like during several of our synoptic snowfalls here Chicago backed in with LES.

The Northeast has been in a multi year snow drought. They've not had 3+ feet in consecutive years. Plus, even if they get a noreaster next year, one with those amounts (even though confined to the immediate coast) seem unlikely.

The winter here so far has had below avg precip, slightly above avg snowfall, solidly below avg temps and above avg snowcover. It was a really good winter but without any big storms (biggest to date 6.2") and shockingly dry for a nina (fortunately nearly all meaningful precip has been snow). Winter wasted no time getting going in late November, but the longstanding snowpack melted in a thaw earlier this week. Winter once again showed that enso is just one piece of the puzzle. With each passing winter we learn more and more how detailed outlooks like yours prove far more valuable thsn the repetitious "el nino" or "la nina" national outlook maps always issued. Regarding the east coast snow, especially in areas that are feast/famine, they saw a feast after multiple years of famine. Hopefully this will put to rest some of the nonsense talk by some that NYC was a spiraling lost cause from which they'd never return. Cc does not stop local weather conditions from their normal ebb and flow around climo.

Some potential next Sunday-Monday timeframe. But keep the discussion in here. NO NEW THREADS

Since Jan 1st Detroit has only seen 1.77" precip (and 21.4" snow). Its much better than QC but its shockingly below avg for a La Nina. Fortunately its been nearly all snow except for a few meager lgt rain spurts.

This one not just went south, the snow portion really withered away. Model reliability is just not there right now.

TOL is located about 20 miles SW of actual Toledo in Swanton, OH.

We do get big storms here as well. Its not all nickels and dimes. The 2010s saw the most 6"+ storms on record for Detroit, and several 10"+ storms too. Were definitely due for a good one (last 7"+ storm now 4 years ago) but a regression after the 2010s was anticipated. Snow climo always ebbs and flows but when you see something that really out you know it'll correct itself a bit. NYC and BOS also had a record snowy stretch in the 2000s/10s then a record drought the last decade or so (especially nyc).

Imagine what it was like in the pre model days. There were no exhilarating good busts, no demoralizing bad busts....every day was a crapshoot.

Not even close. East coast storms and rumors of storms bust all the type.