michsnowfreak

I still don't think bamwx was meaning that map to verify literally.

A lot of model signals are showing a colder than avg Jan. I'm liking the looks of that month...but we aren't repeating 2013-14 lol

True. Although in mid January too much cold can cause suppression, unless you get a great clipper pattern. Regardless I'm liking the looks for here (and don't think it looks bad in the east either).

I was looking at this, looks different than yours.

Yes, and they really get cold week 6. Usually you dont see such strong departures (warm or cold) in the later weeks from the main weeklies (the control run is another story).

Feb 1, 2015 comes to mind as a widespread storm with totals well over a foot, but several others do as well.

It'll come! The snow season statistically has about 93% more to come here lol.

Very well explained video!

Wow very nice. Just a dusting on the ground here. We have had 9 days this season with T - 1" on the ground but no more yet. Im waiting for those piles!

Once again 2013-14 & 2014-15 are mentioned.

We made it to December 5th before the first appearance of the word futility. About on par with most years I'd say

So true. Even as I am the "weatherman" to my family and friends and they ask me "how much do you think we will get?", when it comes to daily weather, no matter how many times I warm against it, Ill hear "this morning my phone showed cloudy tmrw now it shows a snowflake" (referring to the weather app which changes everytime you refresh it).

Just got a half inch here, which compressed a bit with the 40mph wind gusts, though I wasnt expecting much. Unlike the Nov 29 event, this part of SE MI did not look to be in a good spot. First biting cold morning of the season, low at DTW was 19F but wind chills hovered just above 0 and untreated roads were icy.

@mitchnick you were asking about the Euro seasonal the other day. Again, take all models with a grain of salt. But throughout Fall it was one of the warmest seasonal models for winter and you'll notice quite a difference between the December run (top) and the November run (bottom).

I've noticed the cold bias in the WB cfs weeklies, but it also seems that tidbits has a warm bias compared to the actual CPC cfs link.

I agree 100% Don, but as a gentle reminder (not to you, just for some others) it goes both ways. If the LR guidance shows warm it is equally subject to errors. No one should take any of that seriously, and forecasters posting those maps on videos where the general public are asking for misinterpretations.

I saw your outlook, and that video from BAM weather yesterday. Not to mention the (albeit unreliable) euro and cfs weeklies. Definitely not looking warm in Jan.

The weather always had tricks up her sleeves. We already have guesses for Jan ranging from torch to cold shunting the storm track way south (some GAWX love). One thing is for sure. The coldest part of winter historically is Jan into early Feb, so as we hit peak winter climo, imperfect patterns and setups become increasingly workable for those further south, and for us further north, the blues that we love seeing early and late in the season bring suppression worries in mid winter. Emotional roller coaster ahead for this forum no doubt lol.

I give you credit for not wavering. I really do think you're wrong about a torch January, and even moreso I HOPE you're wrong, but props for sticking to your guns (warm Jan, cold Feb).

Oh I dont mean every poster...just some. Sorry if it came across another way. I just think overall there is a huge difference between having a preference and a bias. I usually have general thoughts for my area and keep it vague like that; getting in too deep increases the chance to get burned. Im kind of a mix between BAM and Don Sutherland on my thoughts- a variable winter. Had snow on the ground when I cut down the Christmas tree Sunday and should have a little bit of snow on the ground at an event Im going to Friday. Those were my 2 "outdoor" holiday events planned, so while Im never a fan of the up and down, Im actually fine if it warms up sooner rather than later, as it increases the chances of another turn colder by Christmas itself.

1000%. There is plenty of knowledge AND bias by the frequent posters in this thread. In nearly every post, as a matter of fact, from some.

Was perfect kicking off December on Sunday cutting down the Christmas tree with a light blanket of snow on the ground and cold winter air. Most of the snow melted yesterday with sun and mid 30s. Should see some snow tmrw night.

Nice. Sounds like everything missed Buffalo officially and orchard park was slammed.

GHDII jackpotted DTW-downriver with 16-17". DTW had 16.7", TOL had 12.0".

76-77 was certainly a brutal winter for cold, and I believe holds the record for longest stretch of below freezing temps. (It did warm up I'm March big time). Snowcover was good, but snowfall was nothing special, right around avg. 78-79 was another very cold winter though with snowfall actually below avg. 77-78 was definitely the harshest winter of the infamous trio, but doesn't hold a candle to 2013-14. Don't get me wrong, I would love to relive those winters for a few reasons, but from a snow perspective they were nothing special overall.