michsnowfreak

I saw JB's temp map (he must be going for reverse psychology)...anyone have weatherbells precip map for the winter? And I notice cosgrove is obsessed with pointing out its NOT a La Nina....i assumed the expectation was Nina was to develop in Fall?

I think the fact that a lot of days have been upper 80s to low 90s is causing wild disparity from place to place, but that Milwaukee number is crazy low. It's been a hot summer so there have been a lot less cooldown days then you would expect in a typical summer, but also, the amount of extreme hot days has been way less than most of our hot summers, especially the ones the first half of the 20th century. Detroit (DTW) has had 14 days of 90+ this year. The average in a year is 12, so that is nothing impressive consider how warm its been. Certainly another month until we're out of the woods, but I don't really see any heat building. Detroit city airport, which sits closer to the water, has only had 11 days this year. It was the official weather station during those extremely hot summers of the 1930s-50s. So it really makes me wonder, those years when they were getting 30, 35 days of 90+, how many would inland present day DTW have gotten!!!??? The DTX NWS office, in Detroit's far northern suburbs, rural and high in elevation, has only had 4 days. Yet Flint, which is North of there but actually closer to the NWS office than DTW, has logged 18 days. Nearby to FNT is Saginaw, which only has 13 days. And then Toledo, OH has a whopping 27 days.

I'm ready for fall that's for sure. By Halloween time is when I get ready for snow. I'm in Southern Michigan, however when looking at the weak La Ninas, it's uncanny how strong the signal is for a snowy December.

Yes it was. Most would work for me.

are you seeing a snowy start to winter in the Great Lakes? ala weak nina

I would love to have an average fall. I am so so so over summer. Detroit had 14 days of 90+, which is not far from the average of 12, but the persistence of heat from mid June to July was impressive. Adding to stebos earlier comment, weak la ninas often have mild autumns followed by Winter hitting early and hard (with the 2nd half of Winter more up in the air).

Who used that unusual line? I'd be safe, but again, some bold predictions for so far out.

kinda ridiculous for any met to exhibit confidence in any scenario one way or the other.

That makes sense. Any idea what the h5 looks like on the euro? just my usual August curiosity lol. I put little faith in models either way.

what are the euro monthlies like accuracy wise? low accuracy like the rest? larry cosgrove was unhappy at how warm they looked for winter. it was an odd look because the map was full of warm anomaloes yet they weren't extreme anywhere when you realized the legend was in increments of 0.2°. Even converting to F it was a few degrees or less warm departure for most everyone.

I will be surprised if there is not above average precipitation in the Great Lakes this Winter.

Standard la nina would be storms galore into the Great Lakes

Weak La Ninas have a very strong signal for snowy Decembers here.

I've noticed over the years there are always some notable similarities yet at the same time notable differences between winters in the Southern Great Lakes and Southern New England. Not sure where sne falls with this, but I was looking at weak la ninas and it's startling how strong the trend is for snowy December's here during a weak Nina. Especially since the 1970s. 7 of the past 8 have had well above average December snowfall. The lone holdout was average. Could be completely random, as those 8 winters were quite different from one another (some severe, some very frontloaded). But regardless the trend is about as strong as you can get with an analog set.

it's incredible seeing how 1955 and 1921 are near the top of almost everyone's list. They must have been absolutely brutal in the mostly pre-AC era.

same here!

I had 5.72" in July and already 2.00" in August

Exactly 2" of rain here the last 2 days

The past decade has certainly had several very hot July's, but before that, Detroit's hottest July list was absolutely dominated by the pre-1960 era. In the last 12 years, Detroit his had 4 July's rank in the top 10 warmest and 2 rank in the top 10 coldest. Pretty impressive for a 146 year span of record

Does anyone know how to bookmark a station with the new MOS page?

Interesting that this month beat out 1921, 1955, and 2012. Those July's were more torrid across most of the midwest than 2020.

7th warmest July on record for Detroit with 77.4°. no record highs, no record amount of 90s, just persistent warmth. only one day below avg.

do you have AC?

I'm done with summer even earlier than normal this year. Its consistently warm/hot, no baseball yet, no concerts, pretty much ready for fall

Thanks for the info on CT. they'll be working at uconn. Its more for my own curiosity than theirs . Not sure about the girlfriend but I know my brother well. He likes snow at first but then gets tired of it. Not sure if they'll be there more than 1 winter, so hopefully a noreaster happens this coming winter. Actually, assuming the Winter will probably have less gray days, less snowy days, less days with snowcover, but a bigger shut-everything-down storm, that my be a type of winter my brother likes lol. if a 2+ foot storm happens I may have to come for a visit.