michsnowfreak

I am wondering if this is going to be similar to the April 17th snow event. With it being early in the season I could see it going either way. DTX is being very conservative and they may be right, or it could absolutely pour snow and they could totally bust.

Just a heads up, with a moderate la nina in place id bet the house on a Rollercoaster. There will be nice wintry bouts and annoying thaws.

tomorrow looking interesting in southeast Michigan for some wet accumulating snow.

Sustained has always seemed uncommon. I mean most winters either see the cold or mild dominate, but its rare for anything to truly be sustained. I definitely agree that snow is not a way to determine if a winter is cold or mild...and thats why I brought up the rarity of a winter that is both simultaneously abnormally cold AND snowy. For instance, the winter of 1977-78 from a snowfall standpoint essentially died after the Jan 26 blizzard, which is only mid winter...but I don't think anyone would not call that a "cold, snowy winter". That does give me an idea though...I do want to look up later how many winters saw all 3 months finish warmer or colder than avg. btw if anyone is interested, here is a list of nina winters since 1950

Definitely not throwing in the towel on winter, just noting that December is looking mild. Its actually ridiculous to throw in the towel when there are 5 months of snow to come.

since 2005-06, we have had 6 colder than avg winters, 1 exactly avg, and 8 warmer than avg. Im surprised 2008-09 wasn't a cold winter in Toronto.

I initially was thinking that December was where it was at for ninas, but really its all over the board. strong ninas are strong signs for lots of December snow, but maybe everything is pushed back? because extended ensembles show cold really building in Canada towards Christmas. ninas also are usually a torch October, and this year was cool. I strongly disagree with that last statement about shrinking winters. if anything we have been seeing early and later snows, though I'm not talking Toronto, I'm talking here. any uptick in temp has been matched by an uptick in snow, and the old adage about grandpas winters of his youth has been used for centuries but never right. The 1870s seem like the best match for brutally cold and snowy winters, though ironically there were a few torch winters thrown in even then. Outside of a few winters in the 1970s and the 2010s, and other scattered ones, you are either going to get an impressively cold winter or an impressively snowy one, rare to see both the same year in the southern Great Lakes.

December looking mild for most of the country, though I'm sure it will contain some cold shots/snows in the Lakes and upper midwest. Deeper winter hopefully arriving around new years.

oh wow. That's way worse than here (26"). Just curious why you think it will be THAT bad...that has to be rare for Toronto.

Only time will tell. Fingers crossed.

What was the total snowfall in 2011-12 there? I always find it strange that every year when a mild pattern is showing up some start fearing 2011-12 lol. I actually don't fully disagree with you, I think its going to be a roller coaster of ups and downs, but I will be shocked if a stormy nina fails to materialize and snowfall ends up as bad as you fear

picked up 0.2" of snow this morning, quite windy and blowing a bit. First measurable snow of the season

Ann Arbor really had the extremes this week, seeing the warmest official temperature on November 9th at 81ﾟ, and the coldest official temperature today at 14ﾟ. Quite an impressive streak for a 5 day period. Detroit saw a low of 25ﾟ this morning after a high of 77ﾟ during the warm spell.

It was a beautiful, vivid Fall here. Last year was a late leaf drop.

last years leaf drop was late

Nov 10, 2020: 77°, warmest temp so late in season at Detroit Nov 13, 2019: 7°, coldest temp so early in season at Detroit What a difference a year makes

Browsing various outlook posts, it seems like the analogs that keep showing up are 1975-76 1983-84 1988-89 2007-08 2016-17 other ones include 1973-74, 2010-11, 2011-12, 2017-18

The cold produced nicely in 17-18 here. Plenty of snow Dec-Feb. Then after a March 1st snowstorm it turned cold and dry while the northeast cashed in.

Jan 11 was all winter here. Though I have a feeling by the negative hints he meant Jan 12, which is everyone's favorite winter to fear lol.

Nice work! I am no forecaster, just a climo guy. I am really seeing a lot of roller coaster weather this Winter, would you agree? Seems as though while it can happen any year, and usually does, nina is extra susceptible to having wild swings. For instance, a +2ﾟ nina January could easily have a Max of 62 and Min of -12 whereas a +2° nino January could have a Max of 49 in a Min of 9. how we arrive at the final on numbers may be a wild ride.

yup, same. The November torch was extremely impressive & despite a cold snap and snow on Thanksgiving the month still holds 4th warmest November on record here. Then December saw 20" of snow sandwiched around a torch mid month where the temperature hit 65ﾟ. January saw plenty more snow and a temperature as low as -18ﾟ at Detroit before the 2nd half of February saw the torch return with more temps in the mid 60s.

One year ago tomorrow was the largest November snowstorm on record followed by record smashing cold.

I mean don't get me wrong, a ratter is certainly possible...anything is always possible. But if the tables were turned and there were a few good winters and a bunch of ratters and someone called for a good winter, can you imagine the they would get? . One year ago today a Winter storm watch was in effect and on Veterans Day Detroit saw the largest November snowstorm on record, followed by record smashing cold. Did that foretell Winter? I think not!

88-89 was the worst strong Nina of the bunch. made no sense in many ways, it was a dry winter which defies nina climo. 99-00 was also crap but it did have a solid consecutive 6 weeks of white in Jan/Feb, surrounded by torches on either side. All the other strong ninas were above avg snow. This is starting off similar to 75-76 with a warm first half of November. Strong Nina Snowfall at Detroit (longterm avg 41") 1973-74: 49.2" 1975-76: 55.9" 1988-89: 25.1" 1998-99: 49.5" 1999-00: 23.7" 2007-08: 71.7" 2010-11: 69.1"

Yep. All this sunny, calm weather in November the Winter will NOT remember lol. I mean there's no guarantees in anything, but when you look at certain factors such as a typical active storm track in the Great Lakes during nina's, the somewhat increasing precipitation/snowfall that's been observed in this region in the past few decades, & the unfrozen waters ripe for Lake effect snow, I just cannot see how there's not plenty of fun times for the Great Lakes this Winter. That said, Im really not feeling a beavis/Josh type of Winter with nonstop cold and snow cover.