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Everything posted by michsnowfreak
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2019 Year in Review + Decade in Review
michsnowfreak replied to Hoosier's topic in Lakes/Ohio Valley
Detroit never had trouble breaking 10", it was the 12" barrier lol. And yes, they did that with a 16.7" storm. -
2019 Year in Review + Decade in Review
michsnowfreak replied to Hoosier's topic in Lakes/Ohio Valley
They put out a public twitter vote, I dont have twitter so couldnt vote, but the public was right there with me on their #1!!! Top Ten Southeast Michigan Weather Events for the 2010s (Voted by the Public) Place Event 1 Winter 2013-14 Cold and Snowy Winter (Harshest on record using the AWSSI Scale) 2 August 11, 2014 Metro Detroit Floods (Nearly $1.8 billion in damages, the most in damage for any weather event in the state's history) 3 January 29-February 1, 2019 Arctic Outbreak 4 March 8, 2017 High Wind (About 1 million homes and business without power in Lower Michigan) 5 2019 Record High Water Levels on the Great Lakes 6 December 21-22, 2013 Ice Storm (nearly 400,000 homes without power statewide from Grand Rapids to Flint to the Thumb) 7 February 1, 2015 Snowstorm (Detroit's third heaviest snowstorm) 8 March 15, 2012 Tornadoes including the EF3 Dexter Tornado 9 November 11, 2019 Veteran's Day Snowstorm April 13-15, 2018 Ice Storm (500,000+ power outages Top Ten Southeast Michigan Weather Events for the 2010s (Voted by NWS Detroit/Pontiac) Place Event 1 August 11, 2014 Metro Detroit Floods (Nearly $1.8 billion in damages, the most in damage for any weather event in the state's History) 2 March 8, 2017 High Wind (About 1 million homes and business without power in Lower Michigan) 3 Winter 2013-14 Cold and Snowy Winter (Harshest on record using the AWSSI Scale) 4 2019 Record High Water Levels on the Great Lakes 5 March 2012 Heat Wave (greatest departure from average for any month in Southeast Michigan history) 6 March 15, 2012 Tornadoes including the EF3 Dexter Tornado 7 October 29-30, 2012 Hurricane Sandy Great Lakes Storm 8 February 2015 Cold (Top two or three coldest months on record for all three climate sites) 9 February 1, 2015 Snowstorm (Detroit's third heaviest snowstorm) 10 December 21-22, 2013 Ice Storm (nearly 400,000 homes without power statewide from Grand Rapids to Flint to the Thumb) -
Picked up an inch of snow yesterday morning, But with the relatively low water content and warm ground quite a bit of it ended up sucking back into the ground throughout the day before other 0.3" fell in the evening for a total fall of 1.3". Monthly total 2.6", season to date 11.7". DTW also saw 1.3", bringing the monthly 2.7", which actually misses the top 20 least snowy December's (#20 is 2.6"), and season to date 12.2". Most areas to my immediate North and South saw more snow, but I guess if you're going to be in the screw hole of a local snowfall, it might as well be a small one that's going to melt in 2 days lol. December ended as 18th warmest Dec on record, on the heals of the 13th coldest November on record. As much as I love December because I'm a big Christmas fan, glad to turn the page to a new month.
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How much?
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Already some light snow falling, well ahead of schedule. It will be interesting to see how much Lake Michigan enhances that band of snow as it moves across the state.
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Looking forward to a snowy New Year's Eve tomorrow. Based on my estimation, this will end up being the 18th warmest December on record for Detroit, on the heels of the 13th coldest November on record.
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Winter 2019-20 Medium/Long Range Discussion
michsnowfreak replied to Hoosier's topic in Lakes/Ohio Valley
January seems to potentially be more active than December was. I think those of us far enough North still see plenty of snow chances however it does appear to be a milder than average month. Really starting to think that those calling for a back loaded Winter are correct, where February is the harshest Winter month for the Eastern half of the country and it's another late Spring. -
It's funny that you mention that because I was thinking about how often over the last couple years it seems that you are talking about very wet snow events. What's funny is down here, much of our snow has been powdery for many years running now. We get the occasional wet snow but there is no doubt about it, powdery and fluffy snow far outnumber wet in recent years. Last year we had more ice than I can ever recall in a single Winter but other than that freezing rain has not been that common either. What it probably is but these storms that are tracking way North and screwing pretty much e everyone but you are squeezing out the cement for you lol
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Dont have top 30 handy for Detroit, but since 2000 the top 20 (since 1880) has 7 in the top 20 snowiest (actually top 16)...#s1, 5, 7, 10, 11, 15, 16) and just in the bottom 20, and barely at that (#18).
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Unless I am missing something the biggest snow at ORD since 3.4" on Veterans Day has been 0.3". Seems very likely. For Detroit it's closer. The largest snowfall since 9.2" on Veterans Day has been 0.6", set twice.
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I disagree. A running curve of winter temps at Detroit have remained stagnant since 1930 (other seasons have showed some degree of warming) and snowfall has increased....substantially. Avg snowfall 2008-18 at Detroit was 54", over a foot over longterm norm. But only time will tell so lets not get OT.
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Actually id say the opositte. Most areas of this subforum have seen an increase, not decrease in snowfall the past 2 decades. Some a substantial increase.
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Ever since Spring of 2012, every winter warm spell we have some bring up an 11-12 redux. And it has not happened since. This Winter may not be the Winter we all wanted, but I doubt it will be that bad. I could literally name hundreds of Winter warm spells over the past 140 years, many worse than the one we just went through. To me, an 11-12 redux needs to have a torchy November (could not have been more opposite this year) and a very early warm Spring. Things look OK going forward for those North of I 80. 2012 did have an OK amount of Winter from mid January to mid February, but even that was so so. Everything on either side of that month long block sucked.
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Actually thinking the decade opens with a bit of snow on the ground, should the models be correct for New Year's Eve. Other than that, looks like a mild 1st week and then colder 2nd week. Rain and snow chances totally up in the air at this point though it does look to be more active January then December was.
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One of the wintriest Novembers on record followed by a terrible Dec. Starting Jan with a clean slate and avg snowfall to date. Jan-Apr eill dictate any meltdowns.
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Winter 2019-20 Medium/Long Range Discussion
michsnowfreak replied to Hoosier's topic in Lakes/Ohio Valley
Battle zones work out, but only for whos on the good side lol -
There were some crazy December warm spells in the 1880s and 1890s
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Winter 2019-20 Medium/Long Range Discussion
michsnowfreak replied to Hoosier's topic in Lakes/Ohio Valley
A La Nina like pattern, should that actually be what develops (everyone has to remember, the models and mets have been over the place), can actually produce heavier than average snowfall in total but less in the way of sustained Winter for the southern Great Lakes. -
Winter 2019-20 Medium/Long Range Discussion
michsnowfreak replied to Hoosier's topic in Lakes/Ohio Valley
Once we get this weekend out of the way, I'd sure there will be plenty more chances. Near to slightly above average temperatures in January and February are more than enough for lots of snow. The issue, of course will be timing storms and storminess. Then again, the weeklies have performed bad, so everyone will probably be best to take everything one week at a time. -
Thanks! I always do a lot of vintage Christmas. Merry Christmas to you too!
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Merry Christmas everyone!
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Winter 2019-20 Medium/Long Range Discussion
michsnowfreak replied to Hoosier's topic in Lakes/Ohio Valley
Larry Cosgrove seems to like January in the Midwest. I like the European model weeklies with its "washed out cold" look between January 1 and 23 covering much of the nation. In terms of snowfall potential (again keeping in mind the active storm track....), this looks like a superb set-up for the Great Plains, Midwest and Great Lakes to see important snow (and some ice as well). The Rocky Mountain ski resorts should also do well as disturbances move into teh trough and set up cases of upslope flow or moisture advection from the western Gulf of Mexico. Winter will get here, folks, just give it time. But the Interstate 95 cities will probably have to wait a little longer. -
Winter 2019-20 Medium/Long Range Discussion
michsnowfreak replied to Hoosier's topic in Lakes/Ohio Valley
The Midwest got such a head start on the snow season that it will be virtually impossible to set futility records the season. -
Autumn/Winter 2019-2020 Banter/Complaint Thread
michsnowfreak replied to IWXwx's topic in Lakes/Ohio Valley
Agree. If anything our snowfall is increasing overall. If you want constant cold thats fine but youre asking for suppression. I love winter so i (and beavis) would be fine with that as long as theres decent snowcover and clippers, but i think most here would prefer to take their chances of thaws for bigger storms. -
Winter 2019-20 Medium/Long Range Discussion
michsnowfreak replied to Hoosier's topic in Lakes/Ohio Valley
November was almost 6° colder than avg and December to date is running less than 1° above avg. You are talking as if it's been a nonstop torch with no end in sight. To answer your question, Feb 1st if there's been no more cold and nothing in sight, then its time to give up on that. Snow wise, we literally have 4 more months of measurable snow potential and as we head towards the dead of winter even mild temps can yield good snow. Bottom line, barring torching, as we head into winter storminess is more of a concern than it being cold enough to snow