michsnowfreak

I saw bluewave post that It was New York's warmest 5 year stretch of winters on record for the past 5 winters. I checked out Detroit and I was surprised to see that it was a tie here as well for warmest 5 year stretch (though it was all 15-16, 16-17, 19-20, as 17-18 & 18-19 were much colder). 2015-16 thru 2019-20 tied with 1928-29 thru 1932-33 for warmest 5 year stretch of winters, with the 5 year winters mean over 3° above avg (doesn't sound like much but significant for a 5 year stretch). 1928-29 thru 1932-33 avg snow: 41.1" 2015-16 thru 2019-20 avg snow: 41.8" period of record avg: 41.1" (current avg 43") So despite this 5 year warm stretch snowfall was around avg. I could find 5 year stretches of MUCH colder temps with below avg snowfall.. Moral of the story? At a northern latitude, don't let reds and oranges on a 2 and 3 month out map worry you as much as individual patterns.

Just a food for thought post. I saw someone else posted elsewhere that It was New York's warmest 5 year stretch of winters on record for the past 5 winters. I checked out Detroit and I was surprised to see that it was a tie here as well for warmest 5 year stretch (though it was all 15-16, 16-17, 19-20, as 17-18 & 18-19 were much colder). 2015-16 thru 2019-20 tied with 1928-29 thru 1932-33 for warmest 5 year stretch of winters, with the 5 year winters mean over 3° above avg (doesn't sound like much but significant for a 5 year stretch). 1928-29 thru 1932-33 avg snow: 41.1" 2015-16 thru 2019-20 avg snow: 41.8" period of record avg: 41.1" (current avg 43") So despite this 5 year warm stretch snowfall was around avg. I could find 5 year stretches of MUCH colder temps with below avg snowfall.. Moral of the story? At a northern latitude, don't let reds and oranges on a 2 and 3 month out map worry you as much as individual patterns.

I tested negative for covid and positive for antibodies, so that's a good sign and gives me a sense of relief going into the holidays that I am likely safe, at least for a little while. But what scary times we live in.

Most of the trees are bare but this GORGEOUS red maple stood out brilliantly.

Thanks to a few good lake squalls, i ended up with snowfall right around avg (DTW finished with 38" so about 5" below avg). it was not as bad as some people make it out to be. I hate when people do "take away" posts but im going to do it anyway. Take away the 2nd half of Feb inferno and it wasn't that bad. BTW I read your outlook. very well thought out. Its leave raking, outdoor Christmas decorating Indian summer weather right now, but I've been on the "mild Nov wintry Dec train" for a while now. Just a gut instinct/Nino climo but your outlook is similar thinking. People put way too much in week 5 or month 2 or whatever on the models. An active, mild winter here can produce lots of snow, just not the nonstop frozen tundra snowpack I like lol.

He actually said a 25% chance of a top 5 warmest winter for his area, and a 15% chance of average temps. He's really harping on 2016-17. I actually think that a deamplified 2016-17 would be a decent winter here. Throw away the insane February torch and it really wasn't bad.

I was going to say...+1.5C is "well above normal"?

Does anyone know what the other 4 winters were besides 2016-17?

I did my part!

I agree!

My sister sent me a picture of a healthy dusting in Saint Clair shores. We just had a trace here though flakes flew most of the day

The one Detroit station switched at 10pm last night (they are a newer station of only a few years) to beat their competitor, the local radio giant who has been known for years as "Detroits Christmas Station". They always make a big production of the switch to Christmas on their morning show, sometime in early November, so since the other station flipped my guess is they do it tmrw. lol I just can't help myself, been listening all day as flakes fly outside and I'm starting to get Christmas decorations out.

First snowflakes here as well. Flurries and light snow. The 2019-20 snow season ended May 12th and the 2020-21 snow season begins Nov 1st. Perfect day for Christmas music to start!

gorgeous crisp Halloween. Peak last about 2 weeks this year, unusually long, but leaves are falling fast. Low at DTW 29F

Long stretches of overcast are pretty typical in the Great Lakes. Justvlast winter we went from Jan 21 til Feb 1 with no sun.

After a cloudy chilly week, not a cloud in the sky today.

the lowest at DTW has been 33. Pretty much everyone outside the urban heat island has had a freeze or several. As for the Western Michigan, it's not uncommon for the lakeshore to have later freezes

Nah. Asking something to hold for 3 weeks in a la nina pattern is asking a mighty lot lol.

I've had enough years of experience to know that while my mind is ready for snow November 1st, it's much better to blow mild boring weather the 1st half of November.

Sounds like hes being more superstitious. We did not have any snow in October 2011 and the Winter was pretty much the suckiest I've ever experience although it was not as bad as it was in SNE. Also all this wintry stuff going on in the upper Midwest and in the plains was not there in October 2011. This October will finish below average here once again different from October 2011. My superstition is that weve had no flakes in Oct yet. 7 of the past 8 Octobers (since 2011) have had a trace of snow. Then again we had 5 days of snow this May. Ma nature evens out. God we weenies are superstitious lol

Is this guy pining to try and say this will be a 2011-12? Because how many mild novembers are followed by severe winters? (a lot). If anything in recent years cold and snowy Novembers have not good news for Winter

wild start out west. here comes a wild winter!

fwiw, I have now went out to dinner once and today I had to go to Sam's club to do some shopping. These are the first 2 times I've been in public since having it and I can report that every single person I saw was wearing a mask. If people just continue to cooperate we can hopefully avoid a lockdown.

CMH is only +0.4 for oct

I will say that everywhere I've been everyone has been good with wearing masks.