michsnowfreak

I was talking starting in January. models are unanimous in a wet look. hopefully we can get some more snow before Christmas though

True points...also models are overwhelming with a wet look into this region starting in January. So take it all fwiw

Crazy. But that's just how people like to jump the gun. Where in a mile stretch of winters now, but look what happened from 2008 to 2015...lots of cold and heavy snowfall

Yes it was Bill. And it basically had to do with promoting global warming

Nice to hear from you. DTX went for a warmer than average December with average temperatures in January in February. They went above avg precip and average to above average snowfall for the Winter. That's ridiculous of cpc to do that. many years ago, a now retired met told me something similar about how they basically bullied the nws into touting what they wanted. As warm as it was last season finished a hair above avg snow at DTW. I know some don't like "stat padding" snows, but I think they are actually extra impressive when you can see white on Halloween or Mothers Day. We have a lllllong way to go in 20-21.

I can't say that I disagree with your assertion that January may be the best Winter month (at least I think that's what you are implying lol). It would also be interesting if we had an early spring, that is certainly something we are overdue for after several years of unusually late freezing and snowfalls. And while you may be right, I just can not go with below average snowfall in the lower Great Lakes in early December. I can always readjust that mindset in mid January or so depending where we are and where we look like we are headed, but with the overwhelming look of a wetter than average Jan-Apr, I just cannot go below average yet, at least outside the lake belts. Just because I am saying I think snowfall will be averaging above normal does not mean it will be a good winter for ice or snowpack. Detroit, Cleveland, and Toronto are above average to date.

Yeah, it was NAO. Since 2008... 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2013-14 2014-15 2017-18 6 of the past 12 winters were colder than average. If we look at DJFM you can add 2018-19

just curious, are eps to 360hr on any free site?

gray and cold today with a few flurries. otherwise zzz

lol I'm sure it's plenty. everything modeled never comes to fruition. Winter is coming

I agree. I still think a stormy Winter with plenty of snow was on tap but a majority of the fun will be January on word. I also don't think the rest of December will be a shutout for the sub but it will not be sustained Winter by any means. I made sure to take pictures of my outdoor decorations in the snow this week just in case our bad December luck of the past few years continues. Supposedly gefs shows strat warming in late December, which is a good sign.

A warm winter in the north is still not conducive to most people wanting to be outdoors lol

Winter will come. I'm not a fan of the pattern, but once things get active good things can happen. Retention wise I have a feeling colder air will hit more consistently after Christmas.

EPS is colder, GEFS is warmer. I'm not good with indices and stuff, but that's the basic idea lol.

EPS and GEFS looking very different as we head towards the Solstice

Agree that we are NOT the general public lol. I would say they remember 2000-01 as harsh Because December was very harsh and even though January through April was extremely boring it took until mid February for the snowpack to melt. Plus, this was coming after meh 1990s winters (despite the Jan 99 blizzard). After so many snowy winters the next 2 decades I am not quite sure it would be remembered the same now. 1977-78 is another very front loaded Winter, were Winter was essentially over from active standpoint Room after the January 26th blizzard. But the snowpack did not melt until late March.

Thats nice if there's a cold air mass to prevent melting.

We lucked out with snow around Christmas which stayed on the ground through early January in 2012-13, but definitely for the most part in the Midwest Winter did not start until mid January. in the end it ended up with slightly above average snowfall here. But yes the attention spans are what where it's at. I even heard people last year talking about it being a long Winter lmao, when we had cold and snow in April.

I like gray skies in winter but it's irritating when snow melts, then it turns gray. The absolute perfect Winter scene is a steel gray sky with fresh bright white snow everywhere.

After a 4 inch snowfall started the month we had nothing but sunshine...now that the snow finished melting yesterday, its gray.

Definitely. When you think of those early and late season snows that don't stick or all the countless days with flurries in the middle of Winter the traces really add up. ORD averaged 29 days of measurable snow per winter and 44 days of 1"+ snowdepth. DTW averages 37 days of measurable snow per winter and 50 days of 1"+ snowdepth.

I don't have the exact average, but this region definitely see snowflakes a lot more than many other regions. Unfortunately even with xmacis there's no way to compile data that includes trace amounts without counting them, so I decided to use last season and then the 2 extreme poster child seasons of 2013-14 & 2011-12. Chicago- 2019-20: 61 days with snow (DJF +5.0°) 2013-14: 74 days with snow (DJF -7.6°) 2011-12: 39 days with snow (DJF +6.4°) Detroit- 2019-20: 77 days with snow (DJF +4.6°) 2013-14: 92 days with snow (DJF -7.1°) 2011-12: 53 days with snow (DJF +5.0°)

oh wow you were correct. When averaging DJF the 2 were the warmest 5 year winter periods, but both averaged normal snowfall. it does seem like extremes are increasing, as right before that warm stretch began we had the coldest Feb in 140 years in 2015 which was the year after our most severe winter in recorded history, and a slew of mostly severe winters dating to 2008. I just remembered this is the discussion thread not banter lol...so despite a zzzzz stretch im sticking with my guns. In the end winter will average warmer, wetter, and snowier than avg.

I am sure you are being facetious, thats simply not happening lol. Unless you mean out of the game for wall to wall cold/snow. When it snows on 60-70 days in a Winter that's already 7ﾟ warmer than average and we see flakes on Halloween and mothers day...I don't think I am quite worried about Winter going anywhere

I would have to look into that, I am not sure if the past 5 winters were the warmest 5 year set on record. Its possible as 3 of the 5 were much warmer than avg, the other 2 near avg. I do know that the 2010s winters were not the warmest winters on record (the 1990s, 1950s, 1930s were warmer) but they were the snowiest on record. I think the ice in 2018-19 was actually quite good, terrible last year. Obviously snow is just a part of the equation...but you cannot look at things a couple years at a time. When I look at the long term trends, I will take winter temperatures a degree warmer in return for several inches more snowfall.