michsnowfreak

I was born the evening of May 8, 1983. My mom remembers how cold and rainy it was. That night we had a record low for May 9th. Detroit dailies May 8th: Record low max: 38 in 1947 (May record) Record low: 30 in 1976 Record snow: T in 1947 May 9th Record low max: 39 in 1923 Record low: 29 in 1983 Record snow: 6.0" in 1923 (May record) May 10th Record low max: 42 in 1902 Record low: 25 in 1966 (May record) Record snow: 0.5" in 1902 May 11th Record low max: 43 in 1960 Record low: 30 in 1907 Record snow: 0 May 12th Record low max: 44 in 1966 Record low: 32 in 1934 Record snow: 0

While thats true that trace amounts add quite a few more years, I was really surprised how much more rare May snow is than October snow, at least at Detroit. Snow has fallen in 7 of the past 8 October's, and 10 of the last 20....but only 2 of the last 20 Mays.

Decided to start a thread as it looks like record cold may be seen in many places and the novelty May snowflakes may fall as well. Feel free to add local stats on May snow (or cold) as well, Im sure I can count on at least Chicago stats haha. Will look into the magnitude of cold once we get closer. Did some research on May snow at Detroit. Its actually quite rare, WAY more so than Oct snow. While the first flakes of the season are seen in October half the time, the last flakes are rarely in May. The frequency of May snow from 1902-1912 (7 of the 11 years) is an interesting sore-thumb type of anomaly. Percent chance of a trace or more of snow in……..Percent chance of measurable snow in… October – 50.0% (70 out of 140 yrs) October – 10.7% (15 out of 140 yrs) November – 97.9% (137 out of 140 yrs) November – 86.4% (121 out of 140 yrs) December – 99.3% (139 out of 140 yrs) December – 99.3% (139 out of 140 yrs) January – 100.0% (140 out of 140 yrs) January – 100.0% (140 out of 140 yrs) February – 100.0% (140 out of 140 yrs) February – 99.3% (139 out of 140 yrs) March – 100.0% (140 out of 140 yrs) March – 98.6% (138 out of 140 yrs) April – 95.7% (134 out of 140 yrs) April – 73.6% (123 out of 140 yrs) May – 18.7% (26 out of 139 yrs) May – 5.8% (8 out of 139 yrs) YEARS WITH MEASURABLE SNOW IN MAY (Chronologically) 1883 – 5.0” 1902 – 0.5” 1907 – 0.2” 1909 – 0.4” 1912 – 1.5” 1923 – 6.0” 1954 – 0.1” 2005 – 0.1” YEARS WITH ANY SNOWFALL IN MAY (Chronologically) 1883 – 5.0” 1900 – T 1902 – 0.5” 1906 – T 1907 – 0.2” 1908 – T 1909 – 0.4” 1910 – T 1912 – 1.5” 1923 – 6.0” 1925 – T 1929 – T 1945 – T 1947 – T 1954 – 0.1” 1960 – T 1961 – T 1963 – T 1970 – T 1973 – T 1974 – T 1976 – T 1989 – T 1994 – T 2005 – 0.1” 2016 – T SNOW SEASONS WHEN DETROIT SAW SNOW FALL IN 8 CONSECUTIVE MONTHS (OCT-MAY) 1901-02 1906-07 1907-08 1909-10 1922-23 1928-29 1959-60 1960-61 1962-63 1969-70 1972-73 1988-89 1993-94 2015-16

Yes it's those Norway maples that had lime green to the landscape. I just meant in a very general sense that may 1st is usually when you start to see a lot of green poking up, I'll be asleep the late trees like oaks will still be bare. Versus in recent years may 1st is a pretty bare landscape.

Even May of 2018 was preceded by a very cold April. One thing I have noticed the past decade, with a few certain exceptions, is that it seems that the leaves are falling a bit later in the fall and opening up a bit later in the Spring. Not by much, but the little things I used to always use were Halloween as the date when most of the trees were all bare and May 1st is when everything used to be very green with all the new lime green leaves having recently opened. Now, while we still peak in color in late October, we have the last of the color straggling on until mid November. Likewise, the buds start in April but May has been beginning with basically bare landscape, with rapidly blossoming during the first and sometimes second week of May (ongoing as we speak the last 2 days).

That's a crazy look. Could be the largest cold departures since November. Of course when we have a look in January its usually cold and dry outside of Lake effect.

UK only goes to 12z may 7th lol

April snow showers brought May flowers after all. Things beginning to rapidly blossom.

6Z was even more ridiculous with multiple reinforcing shots of the cold with some snow into mid May. If it does snow, for most of us that would be an 8th consecutive month that snow has fallen.

Here is for Chicago. Its interesting that despite the close distance, quite a few winters differ in their severity index CHICAGO 1950-51: Extreme 1951-52: Severe 1952-53: Mild 1953-54: Mild 1954-55: Mild 1955-56: Mild 1956-57: Moderate 1957-58: Moderate 1958-59: Severe 1959-60: Severe 1960-61: Moderate 1961-62: Extreme 1962-63: Extreme 1963-64: Average 1964-65: Severe 1965-66: Moderate 1966-67: Severe 1967-68: Moderate 1968-69: Moderate 1969-70: Severe 1970-71: Average 1971-72: Average 1972-73: Moderate 1973-74: Average 1974-75: Moderate 1975-76: Average 1976-77: Extreme 1977-78: Extreme 1978-79: Record Extreme 1979-80: Average 1980-81: Average 1981-82: Extreme 1982-83: Mild 1983-84: Extreme 1984-85: Extreme 1985-86: Severe 1986-87: Mild 1987-88: Severe 1988-89: Average 1989-90: Average 1990-91: Moderate 1991-92: Mild 1992-93: Average 1993-94: Severe 1994-95: Mild 1995-96: M 1996-97: M 1997-98: M 1998-99: M 1999-00: Moderate 2000-01: Extreme 2001-02: Mild 2002-03: Average 2003-04: Average 2004-05: Moderate 2005-06: Mild 2006-07: Average 2007-08: Severe 2008-09: Extreme 2009-10: Severe 2010-11: Severe 2011-12: Record Mild 2012-13: Moderate 2013-14: Extreme 2014-15: Extreme 2015-16: Mild 2016-17: Mild 2017-18: Average 2018-19: Severe 2019-20: Mild

Those links and graphs were awesome. The ONLY Thing I would change...is have it go back farther than 1950 lol. How many times have I heard something like, these snows are adding up too much and making the winter look better than it was. Well, if youre strictly about snow, that's one thing. But this index with all its factors of cold, snowcover, snow, etc really is probably the BEST gauge if severity of a winter. I definitely recommend any climo fan to look it up for your location. Im not sure exactly how much each thing is weighed, but temps certainly play a huge factor as some low snow years fall into the "severe" or "extreme" category and some high snow years in "moderate" or "mild". The cold temperature regime that dominated from approximately the mid-1960s to mid-1980s (with a few huge exceptions of course) really shows its strength in the severity of winters of the time that were otherwise not special snow wise. The complete list for Detroit, followed by notes/oddities when looking at the individual ups and downs of each season Record Extreme Extreme Severe Average Moderate Mild Record Mild 1950-51: Average 1951-52: Average 1952-53: Mild 1953-54: Moderate 1954-55: Mild 1955-56: Average 1956-57: Average 1957-58: Mild 1958-59: Severe 1959-60: Severe 1960-61: Moderate 1961-62: Average 1962-63: Extreme 1963-64: Moderate 1964-65: Severe 1965-66: Mild 1966-67: Severe 1967-68: Severe 1968-69: Moderate 1969-70: Extreme 1970-71: Average 1971-72: Moderate 1972-73: Mild 1973-74: Severe 1974-75: Severe 1975-76: Extreme 1976-77: Extreme 1977-78: Extreme 1978-79: Extreme 1979-80: Average 1980-81: Severe 1981-82: Extreme 1982-83: Mild 1983-84: Extreme 1984-85: Severe 1985-86: Extreme 1986-87: Moderate 1987-88: Average 1988-89: Mild 1989-90: Average 1990-91: Mild 1991-92: Moderate 1992-93: Average 1993-94: Severe 1994-95: Moderate 1995-96: Average 1996-97: Average 1997-98: Mild 1998-99: Average 1999-00: Moderate 2000-01: Severe 2001-02: Mild 2002-03: Extreme 2003-04: Moderate 2004-05: Severe 2005-06: Mild 2006-07: Moderate 2007-08: Severe 2008-09: Extreme 2009-10: Moderate 2010-11: Extreme 2011-12: Record Mild 2012-13: Moderate 2013-14: Record Extreme 2014-15: Extreme 2015-16: Mild 2016-17: Mild 2017-18: Severe 2018-19: Moderate 2019-20: Mild NOTES ON INDIVIDUAL SEASONS: 1951-52: Extreme thru Jan, fell to avg w/ mild second half; “Average” severeity despite 58.6” snow 1952-53: Mild whole way thru, almost record mild in the end 1953-54: Mild all the way thru until late March snow eeked into Moderate category 1958-59: Briefly extreme in late Jan; finishes “severe” despite only 37.2” snow 1959-60: Mild all the way thru Mar 1, record cold Mar leaps it to just touch “severe” category in the end 1960-61: Avg til Feb, ends in moderate but close to mild; “moderate” severeity despite only 18.0” snow 1962-63: Extreme most of the way (some severe), finishes “extreme” due to cold, only 29.7” snow 1964-65: Avg until just eeking into “severe” in late Mar; 49.2” snow & largest snowstorm of 60s 1967-68: Finishes on “severe” side of avg/severe border despite only 30.6” snow (cold Nov-Jan-Feb) 1968-69: finishes in “moderate” rather than mild despite paltry 17.1” snow as temps were cold 1969-70: Extreme most of the way thru, finishes “extreme” due to cold as only 45.1” snow falls 1972-73: Finishes on the “mild” side of the mild/moderate border despite 45.0” snow 1974-75: Extreme in Dec due to record snow, scaled down to low-end “severe” at the end 1975-76: just barely skirts the “extreme” side of the severe/extreme border all season 1978-79: 4th consecutive season to finish “extreme” (cold has played a big factor much of the time) 1979-80: Finishes “average” side of the avg/moderate border despite only 26.9” snow, paltry snowcover 1980-81: Extreme thru Jan finishes “severe” despite only 38.4” snow & barely any after mid-Feb 1982-83: skirts the record mild line all season until spring snow just puts it into regular “mild” 1984-85: Finishes on the “severe” side of the severe/extreme border 1985-86: Finishes on the “extreme” side of the severe/extreme border (last 2 seasons VERY close) 1986-87: Barely finishes “moderate” side of the moderate/mild border despite 49.7” snow (mild temps) 1989-90: Extreme thru mid-Jan but finishes only “average” due to very mild second half 1992-93: spent much of season mild, only finishes “average” despite 52.2” snow 1995-96: cold allows it to finish “average” but close to the severe line despite only 27.6” of snow 1998-99: Jan starts record mild, finished on extreme/severe border; ends “average” despite 49.5” snow 2000-01: record extreme thru much of Jan but paltry second half only allows it to finish “severe” 2005-06: In the extreme category into Jan, but finishes “mild” 2006-07: record mild thru Jan then late season cold spikes it to finish in the “moderate” category 2007-08: finishes only on the “severe” side of the severe/avg border despite 71.7” snow (mild temps) 2013-14: extreme moved to “record extreme” in mid-Jan and stayed there the rest of the way, 94.9" snow 2014-15: Feb started on the avg/severe border then jumped into “extreme” to finish (record cold) 2016-17: extreme Dec, season ended up “mild” but close to moderate border (despite record warm feb) 2017-18: rides the extreme/severe border most of the way, finishes just on the “severe” side 2019-20: record extreme after Nov eases into “mild” category by Feb where it stays, despite 43.2” snow

oh my, my words were definitely taken out of context. I don't at all trash 1970s winters. In fact, I would LOVE to go in a time machine and experience them, as they were what I want in a winter, snow AND extreme cold. My comment about snow was simply that many (not all, as you see by Chicago) in this region had a snowier winter in recent years than anything in the 1970s (Detroit, Toledo, Milwaukee just at a glance). My only "beef" with 70s winters is when people act like they were "normal". That is NOT the case. You are taking a benchmark for severity and saying that is how things should be. Ive seen it many times (not necessarily here). And yes, I absolutely think its a bit ridiculous how much excess snow has fallen in this region the last 20 years and some act like it doesn't snow like it used to or is supposed to. I can only imagine how much nitpicking would go on if weather boards were around in the 70s lol

few quarantine cocktails? Jokes aside, a few insane winters of the late 1970s were NOT normal lol. Not to mention most of this region has had a snowier winter(s) this century (whether its 2007-08 or 2013-14) than anything the 1970s threw out. Check out some of Milwaukees winters of the 1950s-60s, tons of snowless clunkers. Snow in the Great Lakes will continue to fall in a decent supply, but Im not sure if it will ever be to the traditionalists satisfaction (ie not starting so early, not ending so late, always having white Christmases, never having winter thaws, etc).

Looks like their index on the severity of a winter is related to the intensity and persistence of cold weather, the amount of snow, and the amount and persistence of snow on the ground. This is probably a cumulative measure of days, inches, occurrences, etc. For instance, while Minneapolis was 3" below average for snow, their total snow cover days were 13 days above average. I did not look up their average temperature. Detroit actually finished 0.5" above average for total snowfall, however days with snow on the ground was 8 below average. Outside of the cold November and April, DJFM were mild. You can also see the curve for the season. For instance, Detroit is at mild, but we're very close to the moderate color. In November we were "extreme" to start the season.. The upcoming May cold snap may even do the trick to put us into the moderate category. This is an awesome tool that I think I will have fun playing with lol, thanks beavis!

Interesting graphs and charts. I will have fun playing around with them. I notice when you use historical years there is also a record extreme and record mild. What's interesting about the index is that it takes everything into account. So for anyone who says this seasons snowfall numbers don't tell the truth about how Winter really was lol, use an index like this. Just glancing at some historical years, it works both ways. For instance a cold Winter that may have had sucky snow fall could still fall in the average or even severe category. There's no way around it, this Winter saw a surprisingly decent amount of snow for many north of I 80 but it was a mild Winter over all

Thanks! I like doing it to, it really recaps the season. The November thing is interesting but there till does not seem to be a decisive trend. November 2013 was cold and of course a historically harsh Winter followed. November 2014 was also cold and despite a mild December it was another cold November followed by cold Winter. Maybe it's just magnified to us snow weenies when Winter hits hard early and it ends up being a fake out. This cold and snow season was certainly stretched to the Max in terms of time, which is why in the end the numbers do not look bad. Snowcover was still a bit below avg at Detroit but not terribly so. Total snowfall is actually 0.5" above avg. If La Nina develops this summer, perhaps a snowy winter for 2020-21. While seasonal predictions are nothing but a crapshoot, La Nina winters definitely favor a trend of above avg precipitation.

As a cold, often wintry April draws to a close, flowering trees are rapidly blossoming. Took these on a walk today

If its going to be that cold, might as well root for the rare May snowflakes. Would make the 8th consecutive month with snow.

Not as extreme at Detroit, but the monthly breakdown sure looks odd though: Nov had way more snow than Dec, and Apr had way more than Mar. Oct: T Nov: 9.5" Dec: 2.7" Jan: 9.7" Feb: 14.7" Mar: 1.7" Apr: 4.9"

boston hit 74 in Jan. That is crazy. You have to go back to Jan 2019 when they had a month with a lower max than 62

Good catch! I didn't even notice. I would agree, though I guess the wires give it a natural suburban look lol. One of my favorite pictures is the one below it (on the November post) of the footprints in the snow leading up to the conifer, because it shows how deep the snow was for so early in the season. However while it was certainly past peak color, there was still an unusual amount of scattered color remaining and that, combined with the fresh snow and blue skies, made for some amazing scenes.

Got a sign to support those essential workers! Really do appreciate all they do during these crazy times

I would be remiss if I didnt update this post lol. Im ASSUMING snow is done, first flakes on Oct 31st and last on Apr 22nd....an average snow season in the end which came about ANY way but average. Flakes should resume flying in 6 months. April 2020 - 4.7" of snow April ensured that the 2019-20 cold season ended the way it began - colder and wintrier than average. Snow fell on 8 days between the 9th and 22nd, and Detroits 4.7" after Apr 14th was the 4th highest total snow on record for so late in the season. 4-15-20 - gorgeous scenes during a 1.4" snowfall, mid-April or not 4-17-20 very heavy snow fell at the rate of 1-2"/hr for a time during the morning. The 3.3-inch fall caused very unusual scenes for so late 4-18-20 morning temps in the 20s caused the remaining snowcover to be frozen solid during the morning, gone by afternoon 4-22-20 snowflakes resting on my jacket, todays high of 38F was record cold, and snow fell off and on but didnt accumulate. And lastly...I give you Autumn and Spring in Michigan

Rare (for April) combination of below average precip and above avg snow here in April. DTW at 1.71" precip (-0.50" to date) and 4.9" snow (+3.2")

I agree. Honestly, I could not think of a less desirable time to be in the upper peninsula than April and May. The time between Winter and summer is just mud. Bo has excellent points of the entire state is not the same, but for down here in the populated Detroit area I absolutely agree with all of the stay at home stuff.