michsnowfreak

I've always been interested in the weather since I was a kid, my mom instilled it into me although Im much more into it than she is lol. Always loved snow, been measuring every snowfall since the fall of 1995 when I was 12. I live a 2 minute drive from my childhood home so really doesn't affect location for my snow records either lol. That means this is my 26 consecutive Winter of measuring snow in my own backyard.. Weather stats/history interest me more than forecasting. I became a co-op observer for the NWS in 2004 so my daily precip/snow has officially been logged since then. My actual 9-5, or should I say 8-4 lol, is I'm an injury adjuster for an insurance company. Working from home now which is why I want a lot of snow to enjoy.

it definitely bumped nw in Michigan. looks like the mean took on a SLIGHT more sw to ne orientation rather than w to e

I am no forecasting expert but some of the those who are have already mentioned that the block itself is what's preventing this from being a warm rainy cutter.

A lot of strong members but the mean is kept in check because there are such varying placements of the snow swath. Still a few duds but not many.

I do remember the ice failing, I thought you were just talking about snow. As for December 2nd are you thinking of the storm that went to Eastern Ohio and hit the Eastern part of the sub? Or something different? That pounded Cleveland with almost 10" and was actually my biggest snow of the season so far with 4.3" on the Western edge. Of course model placement always sucks more than a few days out lol. Hopefully this one delivers.

I want a glacier too! Mother nature knows how to push my buttons lol. I expected snow to melt today, we only had an inch of powder on the ground so of course that's when you get low 40s with very low humidity. Still a few scraps of snow left in the shade from a measly fluffy inch. However 3 other times this season we get a 3-4" snowpack with more water, we managed to warm up with dewpoints near 40 justtt long enough to melt the snow before it gets colder.

Not a bad look on the euro weeklies. Above avg precip for many and other than a mild week 3, temps look pretty seasonal for the most part with several bouts of below average temps north of i80.

Please refresh my memory lol because I do not remember any big storms 2 days out that fizzled. Last Winter I do remember that the November 11th snowstorm over performed, the January 18th thump performed as expected and I do not remember what was forecast for the February 26th snow although looks like that was your last legit big dog mirage.

What does this mean in translation lol? (I cant believe I'm asking someone to extrapolate the nam )

I wonder if this will be one of the storms where You see a model start North then head South and correct back North again. Or watch it be one of those where models flip their position, the North go South and the South go North

Just a bit left in the shade here. Of course this is like the 3rd Sunny day in the last 2 months so has to come when theres powder snow on the ground lol.

80s whammies were funnier lol

It was a nice snowfall on February 26, 5.7" here, but honestly I don't remember any of the hype surrounding it? Was it a storm that went farther south than anticipated or was not as strong?

My favorite storm. 16.7" at Detroit, 18" on the ground...Nice deep snowpack was put in place for the record cold month that would follow.

The grinch storm temp gradient was insane. Christmas was our coldest day of this mild winter (upper teens/low 20s and 3.6" snow)...frost in Florida...60s in Maine.

gfs is especially bad for a lot of the lake effect/lake enhanced events we get in Michigan. it will show a generic blob of precip and good luck even getting an idea where the best bands are (hi res is better but not fool proof)

its still.south though.

Seems to be a decent amount of activity on the ensembles in the longrange. Naturally everything is all over the place, but it seems to be a sign that our zzzz period is on life support.

When does sampling begin?

That Winter a practically clear sky could produce a snowstorm.

powder and fluff settles/compacts a lot unfortunately. The one down side to it.

I notice that DTX always plays things very conservative when they are in the long range and keeps things very vague until closer to the event

The orientation of the euro reminds me of a slightly farther north version of Feb 1-2, 2015. 18.0" at Chicago and 16.7" at Detroit

The euro is a little far North for my liking but considering the more suppressed Canadian, icon, and UK, can't say that I mind it. only the gfs isn't playing ball.

Is this supposed to be one elongated system or several low pressures?