michsnowfreak

I notice there's no fall thread lol, so I will ask In here. Looking for help from Connecticut folks again. I know there is no exact answer, but people who live there are better than looking at those broad brushed often inaccurate maps online. I'm planning a 4 day fall trip to Willimantic. The area is so historic and I love history, so I want to do it close to peak color. When would probably be the best time to visit that area for the best fall color? Maybe my idea of "peak" is different than the official description, but they always say that average peak color in Southeast Michigan is mid or mid to late October, but lately it always seems to be late October. Likewise the trees don't seem to bloom until early and sometimes almost mid May. As if they slightly shifted later on each end of the growing season.

Oh there were definitely some crazy cold outbreaks, but the Arctic blasts (aka polar vortex) that hit the Great Lakes and Midwest in January 2014, February 2015, and January 2019 were unrivaled in severity from the mid 1930s to the late 1970s. Closest would have probably been January 1963. Again, there were certainly longer lasting Arctic blasts, I'm just talking about the severity of those. Even recently, Detroit set a more quirky record I guess you could call it, in that they went 13 consecutive days without seeing a temperature exceed 19ﾟ in late December 2017 through early January 2018.

These are all good points. On the one hand our low temps are "warming" more than our high temps (I use the word warming loosely, because it's not by much). But then on the other hand we've had 3 insane Arctic outbreaks since 2014, the likes of which we went about 45 years without a single comparable one in the mid 20th century. The climate will continue to change and evolve, but I could go on and on with dozens of examples of why winters are going nowhere for northern locations.

I agree....and ill bet money that won't happen lol

I follow climate change minimally but I've seen some of these ridiculous predictions since the 1990s, we've now hit a point where we're almost nearing the threshold of those predictions. Some garbage 1998 article said that by 2025 or 2030 temperatures would warm some outrageous amt. Which of course they have not. If anything the relatively minor sensible weather effects of climate change in the northeastern quarter of the country should please many in New England because it seems that big storms are more frequent because there's more juice in the atmosphere. We saw measurable snow in 7 or 8 consecutive calendar months last Winter here, in a Winter that goes into the record books as way warmer than average. Also many areas most snowless winters tend to be long ago. Moral of this post isn't to debate effects of climate change, its to advise against unreasonably pessimistic scenarios that just won't happen. As it is, in many areas of the Great Lakes & New England, snow averages have been rising, not falling.

Wow...i just realized how much warmer Chicago was than Detroit this summer. June ORD 74.0F (avg 69.0) DTW 71.1F (avg 69.4) July ORD 79.2F (avg 74.0) DTW 77.4F (avg 73.6) August thru 8/18 ORD 75.2F (avg 73.2 to date) DTW 73.1F (avg 72.6 to date)

this is the time of year the speculation begins in earnest....but what will happen, nobody knows.

lmao. The upcoming weather will not be even close to 1953

I usually take a few trips north in the Winter. I do know in recent years there have been a few thaws that stretched unusually far north, so not sure if that's what the locals are referring to. Admittedly I'm not as great a historian on snow trends for the entire state as I am for the Southeastern part of the state. Snowfall in the Lake belts are definitely increasing. Both snowfall and precipitation have shown somewhat of an increasing trend in Detroit/Flint. More Lake effect is wafting across to the East Side of the state, not to mention some storms seemed to have higher moisture contents. Winter temperatures have only warmed slightly so not sure what if that has to do with anything. I have heard that some of the places outside the lake belts in northern Michigan that I spoke of in my earlier post seemed to be getting less snow than average lately, so not really sure why that is. People in the Northern part of MI definitely base the Winter on cold, snowdepth, and ice thickness. And then of course there's the caveat that pretty much any place that sees snow with any regularity has to deal with, the old folks claiming it snowed more in their day. That theme song has gone on for hundreds of years lol

By the way, you've referenced "your model". what model are you referring to?

Summers back, i.e. heat, is definitely broken, but it does appear to be some time before true fall weather settle thin. Not sure what early indicators you're referring to, but actually a weak la nina typically features a mild fall followed by an early onset of Winter. I have a good feeling about the Christmas season this year, but very on the fence about what happens after the New Year. I researched weak La Nina winters here and the signal for a snowy December is as strong a signal as I've ever seen in an analog set, but after new years there's a large variety.

I'm sure they don't mind as popping in lol, I always check here for the 1st discussions about Winter in late summer lol. It's refreshing to have these conversations again. Michigan is full of microclimates, and not just talking about the well known Lake belts. From a simple snowcover perspective it's very latitude based, so someone who does not pay attention to the weather or the depth of snow and simply goes by if the ground is white, they would probably assume snowfall is very south to north gridded. But that's oh so wrong. In terms of actual snowfall over the course of a season it's crazy how variable it is. Detroit's northern most suburbs, which sit at a higher elevation, average more snow fall than anywhere to the N,S,E,W. They actually average more snow than a portion of north central & northeast lower Michigan, as well as the banana belt of the upper peninsula ( such as Escanaba or Menominee). Detroit average 43" and Flint 48", Detroits northernmost suburbs which sit smack between those 2 sites average near 60". Parts of the thumb near the shoreline average significant snowfall but on the West side of the thumb, you will again see less snowfall than actually Detroit sees. The Marquette official observations come from Negaunee, it is literally the next town over but at a much higher elevation, averaging almost double the snowfall that downtown valleyed Marquette city averages. There are off the grid locations in the middle of nowhere on the Lake superior shoreline that can easily see 300+ inches of snow per season, but these are places where literally no one lives and only the most daring snowmobile or will venture to. If you were to travel West to East across northern lower Michigan, talk about variable snow fall. Traverse City is a pretty good area for heavy snow, but then you get into Gaylord and you're talking the heaviest snow in the lower peninsula, continue on East to the South of Alpena and you're into another banana belt of sorts. I've never seen a detailed enough map of Michigan average snow fall that is to my liking lol, but what else can you expect in the Great Lakes.

I agree 100%. Me personally? I would take a cold Winter with average snow fall and nonstop snow cover in a heartbeat over I miles Winter with above average snow cover and frequent thaws ( Of course I would certainly take the latter In many other situations lol). Obviously my preference is for every Winter to be like 2013-14, but I know that is completely unrealistic. It's one thing for wx weenies to want snow all the time, I get that, but it really does seem that many weenies have very unrealistic expectations of what Winter should be. I could probably go to each subforum on and review an average Winter and the posts would be 90% negative. As for the non wx public? Of course everyone recognizes a historic severe winter like 2013-14 or ratter like 2011-12 for what they are, but outside the extremes, my observation of the general public here in SE Michigan is that they rate harshness of the Winter based on how often snow was on the ground and how cold it was more so than how much snow actually fell. After a mild winter that's dominated by freeze/thaw, snow/bare cycles, we could easily tally above average snowfall but the public would say "we had an easy Winter" or "we did not have a lot of snow this year". Likewise, after a cold winter with average or below average snowfall they would say "it's been a long Winter" or "we had a lot of snow this year".

I'm just surprised to see below average snow fall under the assumption of a la nina Winter. In much of the midwest, Great Lakes, & New England, temps are just a small piece of the puzzle of how much snow the season will bring. Last Winter was such a mild Winter yet we finished with average snowfall because it started early with a record November snowstorm and ended late with snow through Mother's Day. Just because you see stretches of midwinter bare ground does not mean the snow that has fallen doesn't count lol. Likewise some of our coldest winters saw average or below average snow fall.

I saw JB's temp map (he must be going for reverse psychology)...anyone have weatherbells precip map for the winter? And I notice cosgrove is obsessed with pointing out its NOT a La Nina....i assumed the expectation was Nina was to develop in Fall?

I think the fact that a lot of days have been upper 80s to low 90s is causing wild disparity from place to place, but that Milwaukee number is crazy low. It's been a hot summer so there have been a lot less cooldown days then you would expect in a typical summer, but also, the amount of extreme hot days has been way less than most of our hot summers, especially the ones the first half of the 20th century. Detroit (DTW) has had 14 days of 90+ this year. The average in a year is 12, so that is nothing impressive consider how warm its been. Certainly another month until we're out of the woods, but I don't really see any heat building. Detroit city airport, which sits closer to the water, has only had 11 days this year. It was the official weather station during those extremely hot summers of the 1930s-50s. So it really makes me wonder, those years when they were getting 30, 35 days of 90+, how many would inland present day DTW have gotten!!!??? The DTX NWS office, in Detroit's far northern suburbs, rural and high in elevation, has only had 4 days. Yet Flint, which is North of there but actually closer to the NWS office than DTW, has logged 18 days. Nearby to FNT is Saginaw, which only has 13 days. And then Toledo, OH has a whopping 27 days.

I'm ready for fall that's for sure. By Halloween time is when I get ready for snow. I'm in Southern Michigan, however when looking at the weak La Ninas, it's uncanny how strong the signal is for a snowy December.

Yes it was. Most would work for me.

are you seeing a snowy start to winter in the Great Lakes? ala weak nina

I would love to have an average fall. I am so so so over summer. Detroit had 14 days of 90+, which is not far from the average of 12, but the persistence of heat from mid June to July was impressive. Adding to stebos earlier comment, weak la ninas often have mild autumns followed by Winter hitting early and hard (with the 2nd half of Winter more up in the air).

Who used that unusual line? I'd be safe, but again, some bold predictions for so far out.

kinda ridiculous for any met to exhibit confidence in any scenario one way or the other.

That makes sense. Any idea what the h5 looks like on the euro? just my usual August curiosity lol. I put little faith in models either way.

what are the euro monthlies like accuracy wise? low accuracy like the rest? larry cosgrove was unhappy at how warm they looked for winter. it was an odd look because the map was full of warm anomaloes yet they weren't extreme anywhere when you realized the legend was in increments of 0.2°. Even converting to F it was a few degrees or less warm departure for most everyone.

I will be surprised if there is not above average precipitation in the Great Lakes this Winter.