michsnowfreak

this is the 7th straight month that DTW is noticeably colder than ORD despite averaging very similar. it does seem odd. And of course as it is, DTW is one of the warmest in Southeast Michigan Thru 9/23 DTW 63.3 (-2.7) ORD 67.0 (+1.0)

Actually that's not too difficult for DTX or GRR because of how much they love the old "Winter weather advisory" . We had at least one, maybe 2 of those busts last Winter alone. But in a great Winter we would see many more. I notice that GRR as the worst. 1 to 3" of Lake effect snow? They issue a Winter weather advisory. 5 to 8" of synoptic snow? Winter weather advisory lol

A crisp and chilly September day with not a cloud in the sky. The changes are beginning, a month from now everything will be ablaze in color

You always have a way with words lol. I guess I could say the snow season is getting longer, not winter. But I mean...if youre saying that autumn and spring snows are increasing in frequency, i wouldn't think of it any other way than an extended snow season. Mild to warm winter patterns still produce many snow chances north of 40N. Then again...I don't necessarily agree with your entire assessment anyway so we can agree to disagree. Despite very minimal warming here locally during winter, I wouldn't call anything a trend. Less than 10 years ago we were in a stretch of very heavy snowfall during the winter months but unusually paltry Novembers. Yes the past handful of years have seen some impressive early and late snows but I wouldn't call anything a trend yet. I think some attribute far too much to climate change when it comes to the ever changing weather.

Record lows set at Detroit (38F) and Flint (30F). it appears that all outlying/rural areas either had a freeze or were close to it with heavy frost. The DTX NWS office in White Lake got down to 27! very impressive for it technically still being summer. We had some rooftop frost here but not on the ground.

So actually one way of looking at your thoughts is that winters in the North will just be getting longer. If we're having unusually early and late cold snaps with snow, that's prolonging the season. In the middle of Winter, even mild and unfavorable patterns are still good for snowfalls in the North, just not solid retention.

47 at Detroit this morning under clear skies. This is textbook weather for a vibrant fall!

It's all about settling & compacting. We actually tend to get a lot of powder here, of course we get some fluff and some heavy wet snow too. Everyone talks about how quickly the lake effect fluff settles, and it's very true, but powder does the same thing. You can have 3" of powder on the ground that has more density than a fluff pack, so let's say the next day is cloudy and dry, you might lose hardly any of that depth. But let's say the next day has another 3" of powder, your depth may only finish that 2nd day at 4 to 5" rather than 6", it just now has more water content. But if that was a wet 3" of snow on the ground, you can bet your depth would be 6". I'll go up to the snow belt of northern Michigan in February when they had months of 40:1 lake effect fluff compacted into one heavy slab of snow. The depth might be 3' with a 5 or 6" water content. No matter how much snow is on the ground when it's powder on powder it always compacts. That is why the 2' snowpack in 2014 was so impressive here. It was like walking in ice cold quicksand. I'm a big guy and got stuck in a chest high drift that I had a hard time getting out of when I decided to venture off. The heavy water content of East Coast snows makes a huge difference.

I think its going to be a vibrant fall for most of Michigan. colors starting here and this weeks weather is going to be PERFECT

how many winters have you been in Milwaukee?

November was thanks to the 9.2" snowstorm on November 11th. The fact that record cold followed it created beautiful scenes. You had a nice deep powder snow pack, glistening, crunching and frozen, with a few trees clinging to unusually late fall color. I always look at a Winter as a whole, not individual events, but that was a lot of fun. 2006-07 managed to just eclipse 30", and 2015-16 only saw 35.5" at Detroit but some northern suburbs eclipsed 50, just mattered where you lived. 2009-10 was not a bad Winter at all, but it was nothing memorable like it was in the mid Atlantic. El nino is very hit-and-miss, and la ninas arent ALL roses (remember, 2011-12 was one)...but overall if you want to gamble you would take a la Nina any day over an El nino here.

I am not that great with all the indices during patterns, but I do know that a +NAO can also be good for some snowsorms here. So when we see that the NAO is going positive it's not as much dooms day in the Great Lakes as it would be on the East Coast

I appreciate the information. Definitely plan on visiting the area at some point but I will probably stick closer to home for the fall colors this year.

1st official low in the 40s for Detroit since June 14th. Low was only 49 at DTW and 48 at DET, but temperatures hung around 49-50 for about 6 or 7 hours. Had all the windows closed and it was still about 65 in the house this morning. Fall is here. Got down to 40 at White Lake and 37 at bad axe. Incredible to think, but on this date in 1939 Detroit hit 100ﾟ. Easily the latest 100 on record, it was a 3 day heatwave that was unprecedented for the time of year.

Last met Winter was very mild here, but season snowfall was average thanks in part to the 4th snowiest November, 12th snowiest April, and 4th snowiest May on record lol. Actual Winter was very disappointing outside of the month stretch from mid January through mid February. 2004-05 on the other hand was kind of close to average temperature wise with way above average snowfall, and most of this heavy snowfall came during actual Winter. A great season that would get a lot more attention if it wasn't followed so closely by so many other great winters. The 2 winters had almost nothing in common from a sensible weather standpoint here.

I know everyone's circumstances are different, but I was thinking the exact opposite. Due to covid I would be able to enjoy the Winter more since I am working from home. Getting fresh air or taking walks outside is very low risk and with many other activities still closed, it seems like there would be plenty of walking in the great outdoors to be had. I do see your point about ski resorts though.

I had planned to visit my brother in Willimantic during peak color, but I'm actually second guessing based on what I'm hearing from you guys. Was the drought widespread? I know summer precip is hit and miss. Thinking it will be a spectacular color season here in Southern Michigan and we would generally peak at the same time as interior Connecticut. There were periods of dryness/ borderline drought in the summer but overall we ended up with plenty of rain now as the trees start to turn we are seeing the sunny days, cool clear nights combo

Last Winter was better in Michigan then areas just to the south. I cannot say that a Winter with average snowfall featured no fun moments, but it was definitely a weird Winter with a very disappointing December thru mid January. I'm never one to care about storm tracking as much as the actual storms themselves, and actually several of our bigger snowfalls last Winter exceeded expectations. I personally can do without the model fantasies and near misses.

hybrid clippers are awesome. Seriously though I would take 2007-08 in a heart beat even though I am more of a snow cover lover. As someone who loves snow cover it was absolutely torture to see snow pack constantly getting demolished by brief thaws and even torches (remember early January 2008 torch?). But that Winter the snow just immediately always returned. I don't care how many thaws mother nature slits the the wrist with, I cannot diss a near 80" season. It would be nice though if she could time her fits a little better, in 2007-08 a 10" snowpack was demolished 2 days before Christmas and then we ended up with the deepest white Easter on record.

Yes. 2 examples of Currier and Ives Christmas seasons filled with lots of snow then a very blah Winter after new years. Huge difference though in the fact that we had a deep snowpack that took until mid February to melt off In 2001, whereas in 2006 the snowpack melted right around new years. Of course there was some snow; there is no such thing as Winter completely terminating in this region, but if those are not examples of a front loaded Winter, nothing is.

The almanac loves using that phrase lol. What's funny is it so rarely true.

Nice to see the Winter thread going in our forum. Of course anything can happen, but I would be shocked if we did not finish the Winter with above average precipitation, with recent trends of slightly increasing precipitation, and the fact that nina climatology shows an extremely strong correlation for above average precipitation in the Great Lakes. It will probably be some sort of roller coaster Winter, there will probably be be plenty of good times but also plenty of frustration. Nina winters like to set in early then have an extended January thaw at some point mid winter. How the season finishes up is more variable, but we have been in a stretch here of very late Springs. I do like the odds of a snowy Christmas season.

2019-20 we had snow on Halloween, a record heavy early November snowstorm, 54° on Christmas, and accumulating snow on Mother's Day

interesting. wasn't cosgrove just recently hyping that it would NOT be a weak Nina, but rather cold neutral? Now we are already talking possible moderate?

WOW what a difference. Im guessing your 2 duds were 1941-42 & 1948-49. 1940s winters were absolutely pitiful snow wise in Detroit to the point where you would look & think, is this right? However everything checks out from an observation standpoint to newspapers. Even looking at newspaper articles, sometimes it would be, Detroit digs out from 3" snowfall but escapes brunt of storm". Just a sh*tty decade. There were literally zero big snowstorms the entire decade, just a few 5 to 6" deals. Three huge ice storms though & 1 legit blizzard (only 3" snow but 60-70mph winds). 1942-43 & 1944-45 were good snow cover Winters here but again the snowfall itself was nothing fancy. 1942-43 was the snowiest season of the decade with, get this, 44.4", which is basically average. 1944-45 was cold, white, and dry. Average snowfall for the 1940s was 27.6", Which is about 15" below the long term average and 4" below the next least snowy decade, the 1930s.