michsnowfreak

Nice work! I am no forecaster, just a climo guy. I am really seeing a lot of roller coaster weather this Winter, would you agree? Seems as though while it can happen any year, and usually does, nina is extra susceptible to having wild swings. For instance, a +2ﾟ nina January could easily have a Max of 62 and Min of -12 whereas a +2° nino January could have a Max of 49 in a Min of 9. how we arrive at the final on numbers may be a wild ride.

yup, same. The November torch was extremely impressive & despite a cold snap and snow on Thanksgiving the month still holds 4th warmest November on record here. Then December saw 20" of snow sandwiched around a torch mid month where the temperature hit 65ﾟ. January saw plenty more snow and a temperature as low as -18ﾟ at Detroit before the 2nd half of February saw the torch return with more temps in the mid 60s.

One year ago tomorrow was the largest November snowstorm on record followed by record smashing cold.

I mean don't get me wrong, a ratter is certainly possible...anything is always possible. But if the tables were turned and there were a few good winters and a bunch of ratters and someone called for a good winter, can you imagine the they would get? . One year ago today a Winter storm watch was in effect and on Veterans Day Detroit saw the largest November snowstorm on record, followed by record smashing cold. Did that foretell Winter? I think not!

88-89 was the worst strong Nina of the bunch. made no sense in many ways, it was a dry winter which defies nina climo. 99-00 was also crap but it did have a solid consecutive 6 weeks of white in Jan/Feb, surrounded by torches on either side. All the other strong ninas were above avg snow. This is starting off similar to 75-76 with a warm first half of November. Strong Nina Snowfall at Detroit (longterm avg 41") 1973-74: 49.2" 1975-76: 55.9" 1988-89: 25.1" 1998-99: 49.5" 1999-00: 23.7" 2007-08: 71.7" 2010-11: 69.1"

Yep. All this sunny, calm weather in November the Winter will NOT remember lol. I mean there's no guarantees in anything, but when you look at certain factors such as a typical active storm track in the Great Lakes during nina's, the somewhat increasing precipitation/snowfall that's been observed in this region in the past few decades, & the unfrozen waters ripe for Lake effect snow, I just cannot see how there's not plenty of fun times for the Great Lakes this Winter. That said, Im really not feeling a beavis/Josh type of Winter with nonstop cold and snow cover.

I'm all for wintry around Christmas! Obviously we are in different areas but your outlook gives me a good idea what to expect. If its as active as ninas usually are, I just can't go ratter here from a snowfall perspective regardless, but it can certainly be frustrating from a sustained perspective.

There will end up being 6 days of 70+ at Detroit which is a November record, breaking the 2015 record of 4. Several sites in Southeast Michigan had 6 or 7 days of 70+ in November 1975 but DTW officially only had 3 (several 69s). Today's high of 77, by far the warmest of the stretch, is the warmest this late in the season, beating 75 on Nov 9, 1999. An impressive stretch of Indian summer but with sunny skies, rapidly cooling nighttime temps, and the time of year it is, its a stretch that won't stick in the memory bank like other warm or cold spells do.

Are you still seeing a wintry December? This Indian summer weather is something else but I know how quickly the weather can change. La Nina typically has wintry December's.

its early November. show me this look a month from now and I'll be discouraged. Last year at this time we were days away from a record snowstorm and record smashing cold. That did not forebode winter.

With storminess very likely in any nina, im sure we will get our share of snow, but I expect wild swings.

Thanks Don! For Detroit the results are definitely a mixed bag, but the 11 years average 41.9" which is right around avg

don what are the 10 ninas that followed Nino?

I'm thinking slightly above avg temps (wild swings though), well above avg precip, and above avg snow.

I saw bluewave post that It was New York's warmest 5 year stretch of winters on record for the past 5 winters. I checked out Detroit and I was surprised to see that it was a tie here as well for warmest 5 year stretch (though it was all 15-16, 16-17, 19-20, as 17-18 & 18-19 were much colder). 2015-16 thru 2019-20 tied with 1928-29 thru 1932-33 for warmest 5 year stretch of winters, with the 5 year winters mean over 3° above avg (doesn't sound like much but significant for a 5 year stretch). 1928-29 thru 1932-33 avg snow: 41.1" 2015-16 thru 2019-20 avg snow: 41.8" period of record avg: 41.1" (current avg 43") So despite this 5 year warm stretch snowfall was around avg. I could find 5 year stretches of MUCH colder temps with below avg snowfall.. Moral of the story? At a northern latitude, don't let reds and oranges on a 2 and 3 month out map worry you as much as individual patterns.

Just a food for thought post. I saw someone else posted elsewhere that It was New York's warmest 5 year stretch of winters on record for the past 5 winters. I checked out Detroit and I was surprised to see that it was a tie here as well for warmest 5 year stretch (though it was all 15-16, 16-17, 19-20, as 17-18 & 18-19 were much colder). 2015-16 thru 2019-20 tied with 1928-29 thru 1932-33 for warmest 5 year stretch of winters, with the 5 year winters mean over 3° above avg (doesn't sound like much but significant for a 5 year stretch). 1928-29 thru 1932-33 avg snow: 41.1" 2015-16 thru 2019-20 avg snow: 41.8" period of record avg: 41.1" (current avg 43") So despite this 5 year warm stretch snowfall was around avg. I could find 5 year stretches of MUCH colder temps with below avg snowfall.. Moral of the story? At a northern latitude, don't let reds and oranges on a 2 and 3 month out map worry you as much as individual patterns.

I tested negative for covid and positive for antibodies, so that's a good sign and gives me a sense of relief going into the holidays that I am likely safe, at least for a little while. But what scary times we live in.

Most of the trees are bare but this GORGEOUS red maple stood out brilliantly.

Thanks to a few good lake squalls, i ended up with snowfall right around avg (DTW finished with 38" so about 5" below avg). it was not as bad as some people make it out to be. I hate when people do "take away" posts but im going to do it anyway. Take away the 2nd half of Feb inferno and it wasn't that bad. BTW I read your outlook. very well thought out. Its leave raking, outdoor Christmas decorating Indian summer weather right now, but I've been on the "mild Nov wintry Dec train" for a while now. Just a gut instinct/Nino climo but your outlook is similar thinking. People put way too much in week 5 or month 2 or whatever on the models. An active, mild winter here can produce lots of snow, just not the nonstop frozen tundra snowpack I like lol.

He actually said a 25% chance of a top 5 warmest winter for his area, and a 15% chance of average temps. He's really harping on 2016-17. I actually think that a deamplified 2016-17 would be a decent winter here. Throw away the insane February torch and it really wasn't bad.

I was going to say...+1.5C is "well above normal"?

Does anyone know what the other 4 winters were besides 2016-17?

I did my part!

I agree!

My sister sent me a picture of a healthy dusting in Saint Clair shores. We just had a trace here though flakes flew most of the day