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Everything posted by michsnowfreak
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The Chicago to Detroit corridor was very screwed in 1995-96. Would've been even worse if not for a march 20th snowstorm. Of those winters mentioned, the other ones were much better winters. 1995-96: 27.6" 2000-01: 39.0" 2002-03: 60.9" 2008-09: 65.7" 2010-11: 69.1" 2013-14: 94.9" 2014-15: 47.5"
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A poster in the lakes forum has awesome monthly graphs ranking midwest/lakes climate back to 1807. In the Great Lakes/Midwest: the top 5 coldest winters 1.) 1903-04 2.) 1978-79 3.) 1884-85 4.) 2013-14 5.) 1874-75 Top 5 warmest winters 1.) 1877-78 2.) 2023-24 3.) 1931-32 4.) 2001-02 5.) 1997-98
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1995-96 was a colder than avg winter in the midwest, but nothing noteworthy (at least here) outside of the early February cold snap, which still paled in comparisons to multiple cold snaps since then. That cold snap was noteworthy in chicago and Detroit in that it came with bare ground. One of my least favorite winters here in terms of missing all the action. Cold and dry ruled, and Detroit has easily never come as close to getting screwed in the 29 years since. 1995-96 ranks as detroits 44th coldest (of 151 years) winter on record. Since then, the following winters have been colder: 2000-01 2002-03 2008-09 2010-11 2013-14 2014-15
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But what I'm saying is noting how cold or warm the conus is is totally irrelevant to how someone perceived their winter any individual location. It goes without saying that how cold anyone felt their winter was at their location is best gauged by how it compares to their climate record and their recent winters, not the CONUS. A cold winter by new york city 1951-80 standards would still be a mild winter in Detroit by 1991-20 standards. To say nothing of the recent cold winters in already cold upper midwest/plains and the warmth in already warm snowless places like Florida and Arizona.
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Never knew that. Seems odd to me. That's a colder and less snowy climate for me then todays 1991-2020.
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Most climate site deals with moves over the course of the climate period. Just one of those things in the climate record. Roads were dirt in the 1870s. DTW airport had much better radiational cooling in the 1960s-80s before the airport expanded to its current status. You just have to deal with the changes as part of the climate record, rather than pick and choose the ones we like and don't like.
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Just to add, when you say "it feels colder because..." and then talk about CONUS ranks that cancels each other out. An individual experiences winter at their location only, not the entire CONUS. If someone experienced a cold winter in Montana they couldn't care less it was a warm winter in Arizona, and vice versa.
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Wow. How close are you to RFD? I see RFD is only at 13.0" so I assume this is biggest event of the season?
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The NWS/Weather Bureau has been using 30 year averages since the 1930s, nearly 100 years. It's a way to capture recent trends in weather patterns for any one area. It doesn't erase the past data, but it's updated every 10 years to reflect those trends. So I see no reason why some are against using the current normals. I mean, if you want to use entire period of record, that's cool too. But let's not use the 30 year normals until the unusually cold 1960s and 1970s are erased then suddenly stop so we don't captured the mild winters of the mid 20th century . For Detroit, this winter of 2024-25 was: -0.9° using 1991-2020 avg -0.2° using 1981-2010 avg +0.7° using 1971-2000 avg +1.8° using 1961-1990 avg +1.1° using 1951-1980 avg +0.3° using 1941-1970 avg -0.4° using 1931-1960 avg -0.1° using 1921-1950 avg +0.7° using 1911-1940 avg +1.7° using 1901-1930 avg +0.5° using POR 1874-2025 avg
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2025-2026 ENSO
michsnowfreak replied to 40/70 Benchmark's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
Meh that one's not a great match either. Had a cold Fall and a torch January. Looking into other nina winters, i saw dome similarities to maybe a hybrid 1970-71/1971-72. But of course even then it's just similarities. -
2025-2026 ENSO
michsnowfreak replied to 40/70 Benchmark's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
It's wild to even think there were similarities between the winter of 2013-14 & 2024-25. I understand it's never a 1:1 comparison but the two were not even close. The winter of 2013-14 was the most severe winter on record for Detroit, the snowiest (94.9"), by far the longest lasting deep snowpack, and the 8th coldest DJF and 4th coldest Nov-Mar on record. Not only was the cold constant from Nov-Apr, but it was EXTREMELY active, with a constant parade of storms. Meanwhile 2024-25 was mild Nov-Dec, cold Jan-Feb, and mild Mar. Snowfall sits at a below avg 26.9" to date and though we did have a snowcovered Jan/Feb, due to more bare than avg in Dec, we are sitting near normal for snowcover days to date. Again, I understand the comparisons will never be 1:1, but if similar patterns can yield such wildly different outcomes, then no matter how slam dunk a pattern may be, anyone in a northern climate should take everything with an extreme grain of salt. Ie: a crap winter won't necessarily yield a crap one this time, nor will a good winter pattern yield a good one. -
Redwood Falls, MN 4pm yesterday: 75° 9am today: 25°, moderate snow & wind
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2025-2026 ENSO
michsnowfreak replied to 40/70 Benchmark's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
Just noticed there was a 2025-26 thread. Looking forward to some good discussion as the year rolls along. -
I know. Fizz and I were referring to the direction the posts in this thread have gone lol.
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Yeah it definitely turned into another cc thread lol. No reason to shut it down, its already getting much fewer posts as winter nears its end. But definitely will want a 2025-26 thread to start in a few months. I do think each winter should have its own thread.
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Wow nothing here. What kind of tree is that?
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Small area of western MN has a blizzard warning, only says 2-5" of snow (wind the issue) but point for today is 76F.
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Spring 2025 Medium/Long Range Discussion
michsnowfreak replied to Chicago Storm's topic in Lakes/Ohio Valley
Classic spring stuff. Late march and April snowstorms are lots of fun and for the Debbie downers it should be a given that they do not last long. -
Im not singling out any one person. And I agree that is a good statement: "everything that exists..is happening in a realm of cc". But IMO some take everything an extra step or really grasp at straws. I have no doubt that if it was a cold, snowy winter we would hear a number of reasons why this was cc (after all, we heard that a short decade ago lol). I always feel I need to reiterate (tho I shouldnt have to), i have no problem discussing cc because where I live the true effects are relatively minimal. I get 4 distinct seasons, some winters are harsher than others and it can still snow from Oct-May. I suspect many new englanders feel the same. The best stretch of winters my areas have seen in recorded history were well in the cc era, and the shittiest stretch well before that era. Weather always tended to go in cycles well before cc altered patterns. So its just another piece to the puzzle and in just 4-5 months people will already begin trying to piece together guesses for winter 2025-26. As for your analogy...It is true that a person submerged under water cannot claim a moment of dryness. But how weird would a report of this person submerged be if it completely focused around how they got under water rather than the fact they were under water.
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I think brooklynwx's comment was tongue in cheek, not to be taken literally. Almost like a nod to the fact that its kind of silly to attribute EVERYTHING to CC as some do. This winter saw below avg snow in many areas that will likely see their snowfall averages stay steady or rise if their mean winter temp continues to slowly rise. Every winters pattern is different. I imagine the entire flavor of this thread would be focusing on different things had the winter been warm as most predicted.
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Yesterday DTW hit 65. This was the first 60F since November 19th, nearly 4 months, and the warmest temp since November 6th. The grass is still brown but the only old dirty snowpiles you will find are in some parking lots.
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Agree. This winters pattern was NOTHING like the past several. If we want to play the "lets see how we can tie this into CC" game, I can tell you that this winters sensible weather was as anti-CC trends as you can get in Detroit/southeast MI. Steady & sustained cold, frequent snowfall, no big storm, plentiful snowcover days despite underwhelming snowfall totals....thats a winter that, while never common, had been practically extinct. I have exactly zero doubt that a milder winter pattern wouldve served us some bigger winter storms.
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Fall/Winter '24 Banter and Complaints Go Here
michsnowfreak replied to IWXwx's topic in Lakes/Ohio Valley
Yes. GRR is ridiculous with that. Chance of a snow squall that may drop more than a dusting? Advisory. 6"+ snowstorm that may not quite reach 8"+, let's do another Advisory -
Fall/Winter '24 Banter and Complaints Go Here
michsnowfreak replied to IWXwx's topic in Lakes/Ohio Valley
Your winter was actually warm with palm trees, so id agree that Chicagos winter was better than yours. However, our winter in SE MI was snow on the ground nearly all of Jan/Feb while Chicago only had a few weeks of snowcover. It's absolutely ridiculous to say the two were "equal". -
Fall/Winter '24 Banter and Complaints Go Here
michsnowfreak replied to IWXwx's topic in Lakes/Ohio Valley
I remember those days. And the excitement of seeing the BIG snowflake icon on TWC instead of just the little snowflake.